Canada General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

In seats this means...?

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont remember them  having a poll where the NDP was ahead of the Tories?

[Хahar 🤔]

In seats this means...?

I was curious, so I applied a uniform regional swing to each riding. I got these results:



In other words:

Conservative: 119 seats (-47), 32.2% (-7.4%)
New Democratic: 105 seats (+2), 28.8% (-1.8%)
Liberal: 75 seats (+41), 25.2% (+6.3%)
Bloc Québécois: 8 seats (+4), 5.7% (-0.3%)
Green: 1 seat (nc), 7.1% (+3.2%)

[RogueBeaver]

Thankfully the election isn't for another 4 years. For now it looks like the only way to knock the NDP back down is for the BQ vote to rise again. Not enough to win seats, but enough for we Tories to do well in ROQ by sneaking up the middle.

[Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe!]

Remember, this is going to be out of 338 seats, Xahar.

[Хahar 🤔]

Remember, this is going to be out of 338 seats, Xahar.

I would need notional results to calculate that.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Uniform swing is the worst way possible to predict canadian elections.

[RogueBeaver]

Uniform swing is the worst way possible to predict canadian elections.

Agreed, but what seat configuration would your model divine from these numbers?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My model has the problem of not yet being complete

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php

The easiest way to do it is to go to this link.

Don't do any swing, just reduce each party below 1.000

Then re-balance each province, so that the pop vote equals the poll.

In reality, the whole ElectoMatic is just a fancy machine that does what I've just explained. I built it to save myself time and so I could do these calcs offline.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Until then I trust my co-blogger
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/hd-poll-32-29-25.html

[Хahar 🤔]

Uniform swing is the worst way possible to predict canadian elections.

Oh, of course. It's purely for fun. I even made this map:

[Smid]

The Liberals being forced to prop up a minority government as the third party would be disaster for them. They'd either alienate progressive voters or non-progressive voters, either way, very difficult for them. On the other hand, a Liberal resurgence, displacing the NDP as the dominant non-Tory party, is the easiest way for the Conservatives to slip across the line for a second majority government.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If the Liberals were to sell themselves properly - IE as the pill to keep the government sane, whatever it's stripe - then this could gain support in the party. I would certainly back the idea.

[Hash]

Uniform swing is the worst way possible to predict canadian elections.

Oh, of course. It's purely for fun. I even made this map:

It's sweet to see my riding painted red. Just the thought of there being a tiny possibility of replacing my retarded MP with anybody else is pleasing.

[RogueBeaver]

Hey, at least you don't have a carpetbagging orange poteau as your MP.

This Duceppe scandal expands daily. Now it's shades of Jim Wright/Newt Gingrich.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/01/26/duceppe-used-commons-cash-to-fund-vanity-book

[Holmes]

lol, NDP winning seven seats in Saskatchewan? No way.

It's sweet to see my riding painted red. Just the thought of there being a tiny possibility of replacing my retarded MP with anybody else is pleasing.

Grits would benefit a lot from tying the Conservatives in Ontario. If Rae is chosen as leader, I don't think that'll ever happen, at least not in the next election.

[Хahar 🤔]

Today I made a little chart concerning electoral cooperation between the Liberals and NDP:



If every Liberal voter had voted for a combined Liberal/NDP outfit in 2011, that party would have won 186 seats to 121 Conservative. If all of them had voted Tory, they would have 224 seats and there would only be 81 Liberal/NDP seats. If half had voted Liberal/NDP and half Conservative, there would have been 190 Conservative seats and 116 Liberal/NDP seats. I think the chart is pretty straightforward.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I would not support a merged party with the NDP unless it had really moderate and centrist ideals. I'd rather support the Conservatives.

[Хahar 🤔]

I would not support a merged party with the NDP unless it had really moderate and centrist ideals. I'd rather support the Conservatives.

Yes, and assuming over 20% of Liberal voters agreed with you in this matter (which seems almost certain to me), such a merger wouldn't have prevented a Conservative majority in the last election.

[bgwah]

How did you calculate that?

[RogueBeaver]

Hey, Blue Grits are always more than welcome in our tent. Among other things, imagine the NDP Quebec caucus sharing a caucus room with Dion and Trudeau. Not a recipe for harmony, methinks.

[Хahar 🤔]

How did you calculate that?

I calculated the winner of each constituency in 101 cases (adding 0% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 100% to the NDP, then adding 1% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 99% to the NDP, then 2%, then 3%, etc.) and summed the results and put them in a table, which I graphed. With the aid of a spreadsheet, it only took two hours. I'm very pleased with how it turned out.

If anyone cares, I can send the spreadsheet.

[Smid]

How did you calculate that?

I calculated the winner of each constituency in 101 cases (adding 0% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 100% to the NDP, then adding 1% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 99% to the NDP, then 2%, then 3%, etc.) and summed the results and put them in a table, which I graphed. With the aid of a spreadsheet, it only took two hours. I'm very pleased with how it turned out.

If anyone cares, I can send the spreadsheet.

Beautiful work!

[RogueBeaver]

I certainly hope Harper moves ahead with this.

http://www.thestar.com/article/1122814--prime-minister-stephen-harper-vow-to-reform-retirement-benefits-may-upset-some-canadians

Ex-ce-llent.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1122176--free-trade-british-pm-david-cameron-urges-eu-to-obtain-speedy-pact-with-canadacameron-wants-a-free-trade-deal-by-year-end-to-open-up-export-markets-for-the-european-union-s-27-member-countries

Huh?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1122573--hebert-fight-over-the-2012-federal-budget-will-take-place-on-the-larger-stage-of-public-opinion

[MaxQue]

I oppose free trade with if EU doesn't back off on imposing the same rules than in EU on state monopolies and obligations to deal with the private sector for all.

In my city, the right-wing mayor cancelled the garbage collection and the snow removal contracts with the private (the first because they were charging inflated prices, the second because the quality of their job was very low and there was having much complains). Under EU rules, cities would be forced to ask to the private to do it.

For retirement reform, well, hey, good luck getting retirees' votes next time. He is underestimating the retiree lobby power. He won't be able to shut them as he do with all opponents. And he can't do as he did with natives and ecologists, calling them ennemies of Canada.