Canada General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

Dwight Duncan might run federally in 2015.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/story/2012/12/10/wdr-dwight-duncan-federal-election.html

More immigration reform.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/12/08/pol-skilled-trades-program-kenney.html

Harper and Mulcair aren't on the best of terms.

http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Harper%2BMulcair%2Bwell/7674363/story.html

[Simfan34]

China seems to be replacing the US as the main Canada-destroying boogeyman.

I'm not sure whether to be distressed or encouraged by this. I'm leaning towards the former; we haven't done anything to improve our reputation in Canada, so I think it's more so a reflection of our declining reach. That's particularly distressing considering Canada is right next to us. Of course I think that the whole recalcitrance over Keystone has something to do with it, but if we've stopped sparking paranoia in our immediate neighbours, then we're doing a pretty bad job as a superpower.

[MaxQue]

China seems to be replacing the US as the main Canada-destroying boogeyman.

I'm not sure whether to be distressed or encouraged by this. I'm leaning towards the former; we haven't done anything to improve our reputation in Canada, so I think it's more so a reflection of our declining reach. That's particularly distressing considering Canada is right next to us. Of course I think that the whole recalcitrance over Keystone has something to do with it, but if we've stopped sparking paranoia in our immediate neighbours, then we're doing a pretty bad job as a superpower.

Well, I'm pretty sure Canadian like more Obama than they like Harper.

[RogueBeaver]

Posted here because Carney's not a pol. 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/how-the-liberal-party-lost-mark-carney/article6414626/?page=all

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm. I'll wait and see.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1305137--tim-harper-pierre-poilievre-wants-to-bring-right-to-work-legislation-to-canada

Not a moment too soon.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/274542-sea-king-successor-en-route

[Foucaulf]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/how-the-liberal-party-lost-mark-carney/article6414626/?page=all

This is probably the most ridiculous piece of political news all year. Message control is the biggest thing the Liberals can learn from the Conservatives, yet there's always a dozen Liberal politicos lining up to speak. I suppose the forces behind the curtain thinks repeating the Ignatieff experiment, but without the worldliness, is worth a shot; or maybe they should have let Ignatieff act his intelligence instead of proposing five focus-group tested tax cuts through the whole campaign!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1305137--tim-harper-pierre-poilievre-wants-to-bring-right-to-work-legislation-to-canada

I haven't paid attention to Poilievre since earlier this month, but he fits the definition of a pest perfectly. The thing is that none of the home team's fans support the pest either unless he makes a hit or scores.

It may be strategic for the Conservatives to brandish the weapon, but who knows what the effects of the legislation will be if it passes? The law concerns Ontario, and the constant labour shortages in Alberta shows that structural economic situations cannot be fixed easily.

[RogueBeaver]

It was a handful of Martinets, nothing too broadly based- most of the establishment from Chretien down is firmly behind JT.

RTW: Hudak's also planning that if he wins a majority. US experience shows the PEUs usually take a huge blow, but our rate of unionization is triple theirs so we'll wait and see. As for Poilievre (who I met a few months ago), even though he overdoes the attack-dog thing on occasion I have hopes he'll see bigger things down the line.

[Foucaulf]

RTW: Hudak's also planning that if he wins a majority. US experience shows the PEUs usually take a huge blow, but our rate of unionization is triple theirs so we'll wait and see. As for Poilievre (who I met a few months ago), even though he overdoes the attack-dog thing on occasion I have hopes he'll see bigger things down the line.

Sorry, I was a bit glib there:

I think were such legislation passed Canadian unions will be crippled by it. Education's the big one, followed by public employers' unions (e.g. Air Canada, bureaucrats), though maybe the steelworkers and the CAW will be more resilient.

The question is whether such legislation can boost economic growth at all. I don't think so if Ontario is going through a structural thing where the manufacturing employees have to go somewhere else. If legislation is passed, then by 2015 the deficit will still be there and the Conservatives' economic credibility will continue to erode. But a lot of this is empty talk because the federal government are responsible for labour law in very few professions; god help us if Hudak's PCs survive longer than one mandate.

Poilievre, at least, is a better thinker than Del Mastro. Harper's economic ministers (Flaherty, Paradis, Raitt, Ambrose) are settled in; maybe he could replace Oliver one day.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed with Den Tandt: a major shuffle is long overdue. I'd also add Chris Alexander and Shelly Glover to his list of those who need Green Cards and Penashue to the Red Card list. Rajotte can replace Flaherty at Finance when he retires. Glover or Leitch could go to Public Safety if Toews retires. Alexander should but obviously won't replace MacKay at MOD, or maybe slide over into the useless ID portfolio since Fantino is worse than useless IMO.

http://o.canada.com/2012/12/23/1224-col-dentandt/


On QP today Flaherty said the next budget won't be adventurous and he's open to tax reform, though not lowering personal tax rates. Plus he's looking outside the Bank for Carney's successor, hinted that he wants to stay till the budget's balanced.

[Smid]

Chris Alexander certainly deserves to be in cabinet.

James Rajotte also deserves a spot there, the only reason he doesn't have a seat at the cabinet table already is because of the number of other Albertans. I really hope he gets elevated, he deserves the role, he was fantastic as Industry Critic prior to the 2006 election.

[RogueBeaver]

Plus the lack of an economic slot available for Rajotte. Alexander's most realistic prospect would be International Development, which should really be folded into Foreign Affairs anyhow IMO. Baird's doing a good job at Foreign Affairs and MacKay will not be moved anytime soon. Heck, he might stay there for the government's duration at this rate.

On the other side Mulcair barely shuffled Layton's Shadow Cabinet so I don't know if he will do anything further. Trudeau will probably keep his party's SC status quo except possibly moving Bob Rae into Foreign Affairs, depending on the timing of Rae's retirement.

Newsmakers of the year: Bieber and Magnotta. Ugh.

http://thestar.blogs.com/politics/2012/12/newsmaker-of-2012-bad-choice.html

http://www.canada.com/entertainment/Justin%2BBieber%2Bnamed%2B2012%2BCanadian%2Bnewsmaker/7738795/story.html

[DC Al Fine]

Penashue is the only Tory MP from Newfoundland, so I think he'll stay on regardless.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah. He's been a total flop. Proof that resumes don't necessarily equal performance. I'd eventually replace him with Leitch or Aglukkaq, who have the interpersonal skills required for that job.

[RogueBeaver]

Mostly agreed with Wells.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/12/31/politics-2013-the-calmer-middle-part/

Hudak interview.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tim-hudaks-new-persona-combines-smooth-talk-with-stern-measures/article6824753/?cmpid=rss1&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


Feelgood story to end the year.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1309024--afghans-who-helped-canadian-army-adapt-to-life-in-toronto#.UOIuBqyLjbo.twitter

Oh, and Bye Bye is hilarious as usual.

[Hash]

God Hudak is such a horrible and sickening piece of crap. God bless our souls if that reactionary moron ever gets his hands on this province.

The Bye-Bye, like for the last 2-3 years, was horrible. Quebec humour (or lack thereof, actually) is pretty awful. If it wasn't for my parents, I'd probably have watched some American show, like the one with Carly Rae Jepsen.

[RogueBeaver]

My early prediction for Ontario: it looks a lot like our recent campaign in Quebec.

Aboriginal issues might loom large this year.

http://aptn.ca/pages/news/2013/01/01/first-nations-chiefs-contemplate-breach-of-treaty-declarations-indefinite-economic-disruptions/

Flaherty's staying.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1308867--finance-minister-jim-flaherty-staying-put-until-deficit-erased

[RogueBeaver]

PM will meet First Nations leaders.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/canadian-press-newsalert-pm-to-meet-first-nations-leaders-next-friday-185659032.html

Jobless rate on the decline.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/01/04/business-jobs-canada.html

Angus-Reid pegs an even race: 35C/33N/19L. With Trudeau in the mix, 42L/26C/19N.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48181/conservatives-and-new-democrats-remain-practically-even-in-canada/

[DC Al Fine]

What's everyone's thoughts on how Trudeau will poll once he is actually leader. I think he will do ok, but this Liberal majority nonsense will stop.

[RogueBeaver]

I'd say low 30s max.

[Hatman 🍁]

PM will meet First Nations leaders.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/canadian-press-newsalert-pm-to-meet-first-nations-leaders-next-friday-185659032.html

Excellent news.

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*face palm* that's an 18-19% swing from the NDP to Liberals.

[RogueBeaver]

Both parties get hit.

[Benj]

What's everyone's thoughts on how Trudeau will poll once he is actually leader. I think he will do ok, but this Liberal majority nonsense will stop.

Presumably at first the Liberals will poll even better than they poll with him as leader now (honeymoon), but the Liberals will then steadily decline as time goes on, possibly precipitously decline if he really messes up. At an actual election, hard to see him doing better than a somewhat-close second, but more likely third, doing worse on seats than votes. Basically the same trajectory CAQ followed.

[DC Al Fine]

PM will meet First Nations leaders.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/canadian-press-newsalert-pm-to-meet-first-nations-leaders-next-friday-185659032.html

Excellent news.

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*face palm* that's an 18-19% swing from the NDP to Liberals.

Actually that's pretty low considering how much of the electorate is anti-Harper and doesn't care which party it takes to get rid of him.

[Holmes]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/olivia-chow-diagnosed-with-viral-infection-that-causes-partial-face-paralysis/article6939315/

[Poirot]

I answered that Angus Reid survey two days ago. I am in their web based panel.