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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #75 on: January 30, 2012, 09:03:40 PM »

More on pensions.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/30/john-ivison-tories-flat-footed-on-pension-reform/

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/30/andrew-coyne-stephen-harpers-long-overdue-talk-about-canadas-pension-crisis/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #76 on: January 30, 2012, 10:11:39 PM »

For once, I completely disagree. PQ resurgence has more to do with Marois winning her leadership wars and CAQ becoming "meh" than anything the federal parties have done.

http://www.thestar.com/article/1123762--hebert-pq-poses-peril-as-bad-news-budget-looms
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #77 on: January 31, 2012, 10:53:07 AM »

I won't link, but since That Place has done a projection based on the two new polls, can someone here do one with their own model?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #78 on: February 01, 2012, 01:18:05 PM »

2011 fundraising: 1) Tories ...... 2) Grits 3) Dippers.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tories-lead-fundraising-race-while-liberals-get-a-cash-boost/article2322575/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #79 on: February 01, 2012, 03:30:27 PM »

Pensions, jets, and more pensions.

Today's notes:

Finley is underrated and should get promoted at the next shuffle. Same goes for Raitt and Ambrose.

NDP needs to develop a B-team in their A-team's absence. Of the frosh, only Boulerice has solidly established himself as an A-teamer.

Still don't understand why the PM attacks from the left on deficit issues.

Kirsty Duncan is annoying as all hell.

Put Trudeau back on the frontbench.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #80 on: February 01, 2012, 04:06:41 PM »

Eh, one minor gaffe. (Remember Honourgate?) Harper's female ministers are generally underrated, and none of them sit on P&P.

More thoughts...

In retrospect, Fantino was a much better candidate than minister.

Give Oda a committee chairmanship as a prelude to retirement, and if that useless ministry is to be kept give it to Alexander.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #81 on: February 01, 2012, 07:27:53 PM »

He doesn't gaffe but is completely ineffective in the House. Dunno what he's like as an administrator, given that his job is a rather pointless one (like literally half the Cabinet posts). Then one remembers another infamous Tory occupant of that post... Pierre Sevigny, and I'm not talking about Munsinger either.

Oda: Apparently she's a good administrator but horrible communicator. Nonetheless, I agree that she shouldn't be in Cabinet- even before NOT.

Other women who I think will do well: Rempel, Glover and Adams.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #82 on: February 01, 2012, 10:45:16 PM »

The Montreal thing is not new- the same happened in 2006/8. Trudeau is spot-on when he said that the Grits need to make a "values voters" (my paraphrase) pitch to Quebec. That doesn't mean whining about the registry ad infinitum. IMO it means reminding Quebecers that socially, they're on the same team and economically, Brisonism is the best way of sustaining the badly creaking Quebec (Orange) Model.

NDP: West is irrelevant for now. If they lose Quebec then they're back in 3rd no matter what.

Messaging aside, the Pelciquistes are weak for 3 reasons. 1) Organization. 2) Money. 3) Time Investment. When Coderre pulled that idiotic stunt 3 years ago (which nearly got him expelled from caucus for rank insubordination), Iggy stripped him of all the lieutenant's traditional powers except that of caucus liaison to the Pelciquiste executive. Unelected bureaucrats whom the electorate has never heard of are the ones operating what's left.

Coderre was replaced by Garneau, who's a nice guy but has no fundraising or organizational ability- plus absolutely no power over the bureaucrats. Hell, he nearly lost his own seat to a poteau.

Fundraising: No one donates to losers.

Time Investment: All the time was spent on candidate recruitment and almost nothing on actually developing constituency organizations. You find some grassroots activists who have organizational ability, create a nucleus, and come out to support them once in a while. Spend time touring the province, listen to voters. It took Harper 3 years just to get 10 seats. Rae has promised to spend a lot of time here this year, so he's doing that part right.


Coderre could have done this stuff, but did the exact opposite and bungled it. Garneau has also failed, and doesn't have the assertive personality required for this job (Previous holders include Lapierre, Ouellet, Lalonde, Marchand- alphas all). The only one who has the skills and knows what needs to be done... is the only one who Rae doesn't trust. A pity, but that's the way things are.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #83 on: February 02, 2012, 03:12:29 PM »

Pensions, staged citizenship ceremonies, crime and Gateway. Nothing particularly interesting.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #84 on: February 02, 2012, 04:02:23 PM »

Gateway is the pipeline through northern BC.

Oh, and Pat Martin dropped another F-bomb on Twitter, this one directed at Boisvenu.

CSD: Yep, that's Coderre all right.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #85 on: February 05, 2012, 01:50:56 PM »

Toronto-Danforth scheduled for March 12.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/by-election-in-laytons-riding-scheduled-for-march-12/article2327105/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #86 on: February 06, 2012, 03:01:02 PM »

TO-Danforth pushed back to March 19.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1127004--toronto-danforth-by-election-delayed-a-week
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #87 on: February 06, 2012, 03:10:21 PM »

Pensions, pensions, Caterpillar, pensions, hidden agenda.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #88 on: February 07, 2012, 03:57:51 PM »

Pensions, pensions, Caterpillar, pensions, hidden agenda.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #89 on: February 08, 2012, 03:22:25 PM »

Pensions, hidden agenda, pensions, aboriginal education.

Notable exchanges: cheap mutual shots by Rae and MacKay.

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #90 on: February 08, 2012, 08:05:54 PM »

Puh-leeze. Though there are some pro-choicers personally opposed to abortion in that caucus, most prominently Trudeau.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-fear-pro-lifers-trying-to-take-over-weakened-federal-party/article2331586/singlepage/#articlecontent
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #91 on: February 09, 2012, 03:17:13 PM »

Pensions, military procurement, pensions, Sino-Canadian trade.

Notable exchanges: Same as yesterday.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #92 on: February 09, 2012, 07:54:38 PM »

Still vile trolling no matter how you cut it.

http://www.canada.com/news/Tandt%2BLiberals%2Bunderestimate%2Bgruff%2Brural%2BTory%2Bwith%2Bground/6128220/story.html
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #93 on: February 10, 2012, 12:35:21 PM »

Can any Ontarians decipher this OPC inside baseball?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/adam-radwanski/leadership-review-wont-be-hudaks-top-concern-at-pc-convention/article2333738/

After running a campaign worthy of Rick Perry's presidential bid, probation is the very least Hudak deserves.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1128295--cohn-hudak-will-win-pc-vote-but-stay-on-probation

We know that Dalton. Tell us whether you'll be the wimphand or the whiphand. Personally I expect the former.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1128970--potential-labour-strife-looms-in-ontario-deficit-fight-dalton-mcguinty-warns
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #94 on: February 10, 2012, 03:05:16 PM »

Two elections away, and quite possibly a non-Tory government.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/changes-to-oas-wont-take-effect-before-2020-flaherty-says/article2334314/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #95 on: February 10, 2012, 03:17:29 PM »

That new poll has Tories 36, NDP 28, Grits 26. In Quebec a 4-way tie: Grits 28, NDP 25, Tories 24, BQ 20.

Can someone do some maps and/or projections if they have the time?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #96 on: February 10, 2012, 04:54:44 PM »

The overall trend is believable, but I can't see where the Quebec Grit bubble would be coming from. As I've written before, they have nothing on the ground* and haven't invested any real effort here. In terms of seats, I'd expect their return to the 2006/8 status quo ante (13 seats, 16%), but not much more than that.

Nationally the trend has been repeatedly confirmed. Bob Rae is LOTO in all but name and more often than not the Liberal Shadow Cabinet outguns their NDP counterpart. Once the NDP A-team returns and they get a new leader it will be basically an even match.

If you want my whole spiel on the Grits' Quebec woes, 'tis earlier in the thread.

*Rae has promised to do a full-scale tour later this year and Trudeau usually does quarterly speaking tours. Neither of which are organizational work...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #97 on: February 10, 2012, 05:48:53 PM »

Pensions, trade, hidden agenda.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #98 on: February 11, 2012, 03:42:36 PM »

In BC, the Dippers extend their lead over the Grits to 16, 42-26-19.

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Latest+poll+predicts+voters+would+toss+Liberals+election+held+today/6045993/story.html
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #99 on: February 12, 2012, 04:11:36 PM »

Hudak wins his leadership review.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1129916--at-tory-leadership-review-tim-hudak-s-reinvention-pledge-wins-votes-cohn
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