Canada General Discussion

[DC Al Fine]

Baird maybe. On second thought your scenario seems more accurate. Kenney's too valuable in Immigration, and I don't think MacKay or Clement in finance would work too well

[DC Al Fine]

Im really upset about the Sask robocalls. Tories want US style redistricting?

IIRC the rurban seats were an NDP idea. Tories are just taking advantage of it now that they have the advantage.

[DC Al Fine]

Im really upset about the Sask robocalls. Tories want US style redistricting?

IIRC the rurban seats were an NDP idea. Tories are just taking advantage of it now that they have the advantage.

True, it was an NDP idea. However, it's still wrong. But, the province is more polarized now than ever, so it's time to stop these rurban seats.

I'm surprised they don't pull a California and set up super safe urban NDP & rural Tory seats. A few of rurban seats are marginal, and it'd be a way for the Tories to cut their potential losses.

[DC Al Fine]

Brison sounds the Maritime alarm. Part of the problem is the political knife follows the fiscal knife, so naturally... ugh.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/scott-brisons-plan-to-avoid-a-greek-tragedy-in-maritimes/article8797076/

Brison's right about the fiscal issues the Maritimes faces, but his solutions will do next to nothing. An Atlantic Liquor Commission won't exactly trim $1b off the provincial debts.

[DC Al Fine]

BC, please give these pathetic desperadoes the thumping they need and deserve.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bc-budget-reveals-a-governments-last-gasp/article8904005/

Here's hoping Cummins steals a great deal of seats from the Grits. Clark needs to go.

[DC Al Fine]

Not happening. BCCP is also a joke.

Also, more godawfulness from the vile Prog regime in Edmonton. Those guys need to be Kim Campbelled.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/02/20/jen-gerson-alberta-canadas-poor-little-rich-province/

I'm not looking for the BCCP to win, just cost the Liberals enough votes to lose seats.

On another note, if you can't balance the budget in Alberta, you really shouldn't be a respectable candidate for school board, much less mayor.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP in 2nd place.... in PEI!!! http://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/13-1-PE-Political-Press-Release1.pdf

...dafuq?

Rogue poll or perhaps something big is starting on the island...

[DC Al Fine]

Garneau`s out. Wonder what cabinet spot he got promised.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/03/13/marc-garneau-dropping-out-of-liberal-leadership-race/

[DC Al Fine]

Doug Ford will seek a PC nomination in the next provincial election. I hope he fails.

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/wynne-welcomes-ford-s-challenge-but-no-election-looming-1.1222365

Which riding would he run in?

[DC Al Fine]

Makes sense. Atlantic Canada is where the biggest Tory/Liberal swing has occurred.

[DC Al Fine]

We have nothing to gain attacking Liberals ourselves.

In Quebec you do. There's no point of going after the Tories there and they, along with the Bloc will be your main competition for seats.

[DC Al Fine]

FTR, I got to meet Michael Sona (aka Pierre Poutine) tonight. He is sticking by his innocence.

There's gotta be a good story behind this.

[DC Al Fine]

Not a chance.  The Liberals face serious problems in francophone Quebec which goes far deeper than party leadership.  

It's a 3 way race in QC right now. It wouldn't take a lot to make seats change hands.

[DC Al Fine]

Remember this when it happens.

I predict a mass exodus of NDP MPs from Quebec to the Liberals under Trudeau, knowing they will not be able to win reelection as NDP candidates in Quebec.

Mark my words.

Liberals are still dead in rural Francophone Quebec and Trudeau isn't a good candidate for those nationalist areas.

MaxQue, what's your guess to how the Quebec vote will split?

[DC Al Fine]

FTR, I got to meet Michael Sona (aka Pierre Poutine) tonight. He is sticking by his innocence.

There's gotta be a good story behind this.

Not really. He's a pretty cool guy actually. Of course, him and our mutual friend hate the Tories now. Not sure where Sona will park his vote, but our mutual friend (who is a very traditionalist conservative) is a Trudeau backer now.

What I found interesting is, according to Sona, the Tory database is very restricted, only a few people on each campaign have access.  The NDP meanwhile lets any seasoned volunteer have access. Anyways, Sona did not even have access to the Tory database.

Speaking as a traditionalist conservative, why would a traditionalist conservative ever vote for Trudeau? Wanting to establish a Canadian monarchy?

I'm aware of the database rules. I only got database access in 2011 after working on campaigns in 06 and 08. I was told the restrictions were to prevent "over enthusiastic volunteers" from pulling any crap. Shows how well that worked out

[DC Al Fine]

Is Trudeau really as good as the polls are making out or were Dion and Ignatieff just so crap?

Both Dion and Ignatieff had post leadership election bounces in the polls, however, Trudeau's is somewhat stronger. He'll probably come down to earth once the attack ads start, but he's a much more credible threat than previous leaders due to his charisma and fundraising ability.

[DC Al Fine]

24% does not give the NDP "10 seats". lol

How in God's name do they think that marginal changes from 2011 will result in the NDP dropping 7 seats?

[DC Al Fine]

Is a Security Council seat worth worrying about?

No, but the fact than Harper is destroying our past excellent international reputation is very worrying.

Cite?

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

A lot of the black community in NS is spread out in little villages settled when the Tories fled to Canada after the American Revolution. Preston happens to be the largest of these black communities, but if the riding was just the Preston area, it's population would be outrageously small so the boundary commission tacked on some white exurbs to boost the population. The "black" riding is more like 1/2 black rural village and 1/2 white exurb. Hence the white MLA.

I suspect any by-election will be an NDP-Liberal one. While the Tories have nominated a solid, well-known candidate, they simply haven't recovered enough in the polls to make it a 3 way race.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

A lot of the black community in NS is spread out in little villages settled when the Tories fled to Canada after the American Revolution. Preston happens to be the largest of these black communities, but if the riding was just the Preston area, it's population would be outrageously small so the boundary commission tacked on some white exurbs to boost the population. The "black" riding is more like 1/2 black rural village and 1/2 white exurb. Hence the white MLA.

I suspect any by-election will be an NDP-Liberal one. While the Tories have nominated a solid, well-known candidate, they simply haven't recovered enough in the polls to make it a 3 way race.

Yeah, I see that it is historically actually a Liberal-PC riding.

I guess with the Blacks not concentrated enough, that's the reason Dexter got riding of t he Black riding in the latest redistribution?

Yes and no. He also eliminated the 3 Acadian ridings (Argyle, Clare & Richmond). Depending on who you believe it was either because the ridings were too small and didn't represent their intended communities well or because none of those ridings had NDP MLA's

[DC Al Fine]

Why would they use blue for the Liberals?

[DC Al Fine]

I know Preston has a Liberal MLA, but Paris is NDP and Black, and the only Black MP in Nova Scotia history (Gordon Earle) was also Black.  Did Preston (the community) go Liberal? I think it's in Peter Stoffer's federal riding, so they definitely vote NDP federally.

It was a split between Tory and Liberal actually*. Here are the poll by poll results http://electionsnovascotia.ca/results/09results/dist43.pdf

"Nelson Whynder Elementary" and "East Preston Recreation Centre" are in Preston. There are 6 polls and the Tories and Liberals each won 3. Federally, Preston voted about 2/3 NDP in 2011.


*Probably because we ran a fairly prominent member of the black community.

[DC Al Fine]

Apologies if this was discussed a ways back. I found this chart from the Ipsos-Reid exit poll in 2011



Pretty standard stuff.

One idea occurs to me. The high Catholic NDP vote is undoubtedly influenced by the Orange Crush in Quebec. What do you guys think the Catholic vote would look like in English Canada?

[DC Al Fine]

So when does Peter Penashue get appointed to the Senate?

Whenever there is a vacancy in NL?

Wonder if he would get his cabinet spot back!

2017, and there are much more deserving party hacks out there from Newfieland.

[DC Al Fine]

Harper's former special counsel Ben Parrin, who left the PMO last month, drafted that secret agreement in February. Tomorrow's caucus meeting at 9:30 will be open to the media. Apparently many MPs want the Senate to strip Brazeau/Duffy/Harb/Wallin of their pay and benefits. Senate takes up the audit debate tomorrow.

There are still a few former reformers that remember the Triple-E senate. They must be going nuts right now.