Canada General Discussion

[Smid]

FYI, orders came down from party headquarters to be ready for the writ to drop by next week. Apparently we're going to have a summer campaign.

Nova Scotia Provincial Election Base Map, Key Map, and starting margins/notional results in Gallery, whenever the thread gets started.

Base Map:



Key Map:



Notional Results/Starting Margins:



And compare to last election, pre-redistribution:

[Smid]

Any chance of recruiting Rob Ford to run in Montreal?

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Yeah, sorry, I had nothing serious to contribute, so I tried making a joke. Seems it bombed.

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Lol at all the people who are all "Harper has the most experience, is the best economic manager and exercises the best judgement, but I want Trudeau to be Prime Minister. He's, like, OMG, so cool and stuff."

[Smid]

And much can happen in two years, beyond Mulcair's control. Currently, the Liberals are bouyed by Trudeau's popularity, but that shine may well come off, and there is very little depth beyond the image. A by-election in a Liberal seat, especially one that will be hard to retain (a Goodale retirement, for example) and the media will spin it as the honeymoon being over, and if non-conservative voters get a feel that the NDP has the better chance at forming government, or at least knocking off Harper, the polls will move quickly and there will be the stampede for the exits. That sort of a thing could happen without Mulcair setting the agenda.

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I vaguely recall Dave saying that he prefers fewer threads with more posts, because the site runs faster that way? I think Inks then merged some threads in FC.

[Smid]

Perhaps they see the BC Liberals as something to emulate?

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Bus driver seemed to be withdrawn, wasn't acknowledging passengers when they got on. Could have been depressed. No attempts to slow down.

I was wondering if that might have been the case.

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During their reporting of a cyclone, they created a new state of Capricornia in Queensland...

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New Ipsos  poll out: 32 CPC, 31 LPC, 27 NDP.

Then the panel said the Ipsos poll could be DOOM for Dippers if continued.

Why is this result supposed to be so bad for the NDP, given the Liberal leads from earlier this year?

That was my quandry, although I suspect it might have something to do with the "Trudeau most formidable opponent - 69%" part... perhaps there's a thought that the NDP support might collapse into the Liberal column if they think the Liberals have the best chance at defeating Harper?

[Smid]

Washington Post does a satirical story on Rob Ford

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Smid]

More Ford. Says he was extremely inebriated at the time.

The sound clip was played on FM breakfast radio here this morning during the news segment!

[Smid]

It is. Chinese and Tibetan community groups are demanding apologies and it's been roiling through the media since Thursday.

What impact might this have in the vicinity of Markham?

Edit: And Richmond, BC, for that matter?

[Smid]

In less depressing news, Hastman is running in Edmonton St. Albert. Great news, hopefully he climbs the ranks quickly.

This is very exciting news! I hope he gets the nomination and wins the General, he'll be a great MP, a great potential future Minister and I know will stand up for his constituents and give them excellent representation.

[Smid]

He will be fine. That was a 62% Tory riding in 2011. Rathgeber bows out is my guess. He won't want to suffer a Guergis fate.

Redistributed, it becomes 64%.

[Smid]

James Moore criticises Joe Clark on Facebook (posts photo of front page of "Embassy: Canada's Foreign Policy Newsweekly" with headline: "Joe Clark Calls for a Return to Soft Power") and posts a comment of: "With respect, no. Let's learn from past failures and not repeat them, Mr Clark."

[Smid]

I have a lot of respect for Alexander. The only thing is, he is not in a safe seat by any stretch of the imagination. His seat was divided into Ajax, and the new Pickering-Uxbridge (including bits of Pickering-Scarborough East and Durham), and the safer of the two seats, Pickering-Uxbridge is still only 46% Conservative, according to pollmaps.ca. Ajax is slightly less safe, but if he takes P-U, than the existing P-SE MP would likely challenge, whereas they could both have seats if he runs in Ajax. Regardless, they are not safe and he'd have to work to hold it - which would reduce the time he can spend campaigning across the country.

[Smid]

So I understand there was a provincial reshuffle in Alberta?

[Smid]

Thanks for that, mate!