Canada General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

I happen to think the Liberals and NDP aren't quite so ideologically compatible. Indeed, on economic, defence and national unity issues they're closer to we Tories. And as Coyne pointed out last night, they would have about as much influence in the new party as the old PCs do in ours. Namely none.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep. If the Liberals hope for a comeback it won't be through cheap gimmicks like this.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/20/pol-mulcair-position-on-marijuana-decriminalization.html

[RogueBeaver]

IIRC they tried to push through C&T before Rae shot that down. So yeah, don't trust them to judge the politics of policy.

Another Coyne idea was for the Grits to hoist the national unity banner and run against the NDP's opposition to the Clarity Act. While I entirely agree with the principle, that's an electoral nonstarter in ROQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Dipper quits caucus over gun registry.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/gun-registry-opponent-bruce-hyer-quits-ndp-to-sit-as-independent/article2411269/

[RogueBeaver]

I'm not surprised. McGuinty is a left-Liberal and more generally has the spine of a jellyfish.

[RogueBeaver]

Dipper quits caucus over gun registry.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/gun-registry-opponent-bruce-hyer-quits-ndp-to-sit-as-independent/article2411269/

I intern in his office! But, I haven't been there in a couple of weeks. This really affects me a lot. I've been counting on contract work in that office to supplement my income.

What do I do?

How does that change your employment status? Or is your contract to him include something about the party?

[RogueBeaver]

What does everyone make of Mulcair's Shadow Cabinet reshuffle? Certainly making a better use of available talent than either Harper or Rae is ATM.

[RogueBeaver]

Oda's not my favourite either- I think her ministry should be shuttered entirely (indeed, the Cabinet can be nearly halved IMO) or at least handed over to someone competent. Say, Chris Alexander.

[RogueBeaver]

Who was the first? As usual, Iggy's talking BS. That issue is left to a trio of Pelciquistes- Dion, Garneau and Trudeau.

[RogueBeaver]

I think the federal Liberals are associated with some of the provincial parties, ftr. I believe they're all in the Maritimes, though.


New CROP poll of Quebec has NDP at 51%, Bloc at 18%, Liberals at 15%, Conservatives at 12%. So which ridings wouldn't go NDP? Mount Royal? Maybe Saint-Laurent-Cartierville? Beauce?

Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Beauce, Papineau, Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel. That's it.

[RogueBeaver]

I think the federal Liberals are associated with some of the provincial parties, ftr. I believe they're all in the Maritimes, though.


New CROP poll of Quebec has NDP at 51%, Bloc at 18%, Liberals at 15%, Conservatives at 12%. So which ridings wouldn't go NDP? Mount Royal? Maybe Saint-Laurent-Cartierville? Beauce?

Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Beauce, Papineau, Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel. That's it.

I think Papineau would fall, but not Mount Royal.

Trudeau doubled his margin last time. Cotler barely won. Don't underestimate Justin as a campaigner. Especially not when he runs on C&C- constituency services and charisma. Cotler was so shaken that he almost immediately decided that 2011 was his last election, and this is an open secret in the Anglo community.  Maybe Coderre survives in Bourassa as well.

That said, I'm discounting what the polls say for at least another 15-18 months. Remember that Mulcair could win 70 seats in Quebec while Harper still wins a majority.

[RogueBeaver]

I wonder how the new Ontario budget deal will play out politically.  Seems to me like a modest victory for the NDP, and also a precedent for Liberals NDP working together maybe. 
    It might also energize the left wing base, with this example that voting does matter, that in fact politicians will sometimes vote to tax the rich.

Short-term boost for the NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

No, but I do have the annual Hill Times survey.

http://www.hilltimes.com/sexy-and-savvy/hill-life-people/2012/04/23/baird-voted-best-cabinet-minister-in-question-period/30519?page_requested=1

[RogueBeaver]

The crosstabs on the Nanos poll seem odd. The NDP's ahead in the Atlantic provinces but nowhere near the Tories in British Columbia?

This is what I hate about our pollsters- such wide variations.

[RogueBeaver]

Broadbent had numbers with the NDP in first during Mulroney's first term a couple of times. Dunno what the precise numbers were.

[RogueBeaver]

We were all totally shocked by this. Right?

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/30/bob-rae-likely-to-to-resign-from-interim-gig-to-run-for-liberal-party-leadership/

[RogueBeaver]

Who else is there that's a) in caucus b) willing to run c) would do a better job?

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, there are people who fit b/c or a/c but none who fit all 3.

[RogueBeaver]

If ever Harper had an excuse to sack both MacKay and Clement simultaneously, this is it.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2012/05/02/dnd-amended-report-on-f-35-status-two-weeks-after-ag-ferguson-released-his-report/30623

He'd certainly be better than Hudak, but is far too valuable where he is.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1171299--tim-harper-stephen-harper-tells-jim-flaherty-to-lay-off-ontario?bn=1

WTF? Don't troll.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/02/harper-demands-mulcair-apologize-for-suggestion-that-conrad-black-decision-was-racist/

[RogueBeaver]

So this is Geulph-only, at least thus far?

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/Robocalls%2Baddress%2Bsame%2Bused%2BConservative%2Bcandidate%2Bcampaign%2Bworker%2BElections%2BCanada%2Balleges/6567696/story.html


No sh**t.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-liberals-would-face-thrashing-if-election-held-now-poll-shows/article2422205/

How Redford won.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/inside-albertas-winning-progressive-conservative-campaign/article2422953/


Not yet, if ever (Over to you, Bob Rae).

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/05/04/justin-trudeau-should-be-the-next-leader-of-the-liberal-party-no-seriously/

[RogueBeaver]

Why should they merge at this stage? The Tories may be able to pull off a provincial equivalent of what happened federally in the '90s. Merger, but with the new party by and for the right. Dunno if Cummins is looking that far ahead, but that would certainly be my long-term goal.

[RogueBeaver]

Even if there is pressure, 99% sure that it comes to nothing.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1173339--hebert-is-justin-trudeau-the-liberals-salvation

[RogueBeaver]

Dix said on QP that he's completely opposed to Gateway and isn't so hot on other new pipeline routes either. Harper and Redford are going to have a serious problem on this issue a year from now.

More Justinmania, this time from Tim Harper.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1174001--tim-harper-bob-rae-tells-liberals-to-remain-calm-hold-the-middle-ground

Mulcair parrots McGuinty.

http://www.theprovince.com/business/High%2Bloonie%2Bcausing%2Bharm%2Bsays%2BMulcair/6574256/story.html

Holy shoot. I'm agreeing with Carol Goar.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1173518--after-six-years-in-government-harper-is-getting-sloppy

[RogueBeaver]

Seat count anyone?

[RogueBeaver]

Presumably you guys are still in second since our Grit friends still don't have a real regional base. Quebec will determine what happens, again.