Canada General Discussion

[DC Al Fine]

I met up with Michael Sona (aka "Pierre Poutine") last night at a mutual friend's birthday party. He thinks his chances are pretty good in winning the case. Says he barely knows the "witnesses" who claim he did it.

You have an interesting circle of friends Earl.

[DC Al Fine]

All our QC incumbents win on personal votes anyways, though it'd be nice to regain some seats in Quebec City. Otherwise a Dipper-Grit battle. Far removed from the heady days of pre-gala '08, if in retrospect that was probably unsustainable.

Wouldn't Mégantic-L'Érable be in danger?

Paradis won his seat by 23% and the Liberals only managed 5%. The swings will work in his favour. Of course, if there's a disproportionate swing against the Tories due to Lac Megantic or the boundaries are changed, anything is possible.

[DC Al Fine]

308 crunches the Leger provincial numbers as 61 PQ, 57 PLQ, 5 CAQ (LOL) and 2 QS. I for one would be happy for a return to essentially 2-party politics.

CAQ is cursed with a similar vote distribution to the bloc Quebecois.

[DC Al Fine]

One Quebec teachers' union would prefer defunding parochial schools.

The phrase "parochial schools" implies that this funding is a bit more extensive than funding Catholic schools like in Ontario. Is that true?

[DC Al Fine]

\

Nah, it applies to all private and independent schools. They get 40% of the per-capita grant given to public schools. Here's the criteria if you want a look.

Hatman: Joining NL. Wonder what's driving the Dipper surge out East.

Forgot to post this way back, but Fraser school rankings were released this summer. Unsurprisingly, here in Quebec Brébeuf leads the pack as usual.

No idea, especially with Trudeau's popularity out here. People aren't exactly salivating over Dexter either. It's puzzling.

[DC Al Fine]

Saint Mary's University frosh chant cheers underage sex

God my school is douchey. This only confirms disdain for frosh, frats etc.

[DC Al Fine]

As I expected, CRA did polls of all the Atlantic provinces.  And they're all pretty lol worthy. Except NS

NB:

Lib: 47
NDP: 24
PC: 23

NL:
Lib: 41
NDP: 33
PC: 26

Strange how Trudeaumania is helping the provincial Liberals. And yet, the NDP remains strong. Where are the Tory voters going?

Liberals. It's almost all Red Tories out here.

[DC Al Fine]

Would be nice if all provinces became NDP-Tory or NDP-Liberal 2 party provinces. Don't hold out on us Alberta and Ontario!

Aren't you a huge PR guy?

[DC Al Fine]

A plurality of Canadians (46-42) support intervention in Syria: http://htl.li/oC58P

Including a plurality of young people (49-40). Interestingly Quebec is most in support (52-37) while Alberta is most against (37-49).

Also interestingly, support among NDPers is the highest among the three parties (47-35); Tories disagree the most (45-48).

Intervening in Syria seems more "progressive" for lack of a better term than previous wars.

[DC Al Fine]

This poll appears to only use the vague phrase "the international community should intervene in the Syrian conflict", with no mention of anything military. So people who just believe that the UN should be holding negotiations or something like that could easily be answering "yes".

There's a later question about whether Canada itself to intervene. It's roughly 55-45 against.

[DC Al Fine]

Newfoundland is polling like Nova Scotia now.



Granted the sample size is really small, but still.

[DC Al Fine]

Hilariously, Mourani wasn't even deviating from party policy.

They have 4 mp's and they expell one or that? Ridiculous.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus has the Bloc at 31% in Quebec.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus came out with this the other day, changes since June. Outlier?

30 (+3)
29 (nc)
27 (+1)
8 (+2)
4 (-6)

Abacus is a crap pollster, and yes this is an outlier. All the reputable polls have the Liberals leading nationally.

What RogueBeaver said. Also they had the Bloc really high. I think they had a lsight lead in Quebec.

[DC Al Fine]

Harris Decima has another poll out with the Bloc doing better

[DC Al Fine]

Very interesting Leger poll on voting intentions and the charter. Interestingly the compromise option is more polarizing than the PQ's. Vote-wise, similar to CROP. QS is polling high on Montreal Island, which hurts the PQ. Montreal Francophones are more supportive of the charter than ROQ ones.

Nugget from Hebert: Marois personally believes that long-term, religious minorities' role in QC public life is a threat to identity. Implicit acknowledgement that the demographic tide's against them. Not that anyone has any solutions about boosting the birthrate, which is far more relevant IMO.

Quiet Revolution is biting the PQ in the ass in that respect.

[DC Al Fine]

Well, some French newspaper called John Baird 'MP for the constituency of Ottawa'.

Wikipedia is a thing guys -.-

[DC Al Fine]

And Mulcair continues to pull the NDP rightwards. I'm almost hoping the NDP loses big time in 2015 so that he'll get the boot.

I'm not even sure why so many ostensibly center-left politicians are so afraid of touching this issue, when it is so obviously something they could get away with and has widespread support among the kind of voters they need to get and keep. At this point, on this issue and others, Mulcair is well on his way to making the NDP as bland as the Liberals.

Did the NDP run on a tax increase for high earners in 2011?

[DC Al Fine]

And NDP will be given coverage where they can constantly repeat the figure in question and refute it. The end result from this line of argument is to not propose anything left-wing and egalitarian, lest the all-powerful media ruin you. That sort of cowardice has essentially already allowed them that. The rich being taxed properly is widely popular and no media lies that can easily be corrected will change that.

The NDP ran on higher tax rates in the past. They were also a perennial 3rd place party.

[DC Al Fine]

New Ipsos  poll out: 32 CPC, 31 LPC, 27 NDP. Canadians believe Trudeau is Harper's most formidable opponent 69/31, Tories seen as the best economic managers at 45 to the Grits' 28 and NDP's 14. Tories lead by 10 with immigrants, Mulcair leads Trudeau by 8 on who best understands middle-class families.

Interesting. I guess the Trudeau thing doesn't hold quite the same appeal for people who either grew up voting for or had parents voting for his daddy.

[DC Al Fine]

23 is a bit of a drop. I think that's what we got in the election. So naturally, Forum probably has us losing half our seats

It's even more dumb when you look at where you stand to gain/lose. I think there was one close NDP-Tory race that the NDP won

[DC Al Fine]

With the Gritslide in NS, I'm expecting more Gritmentum being hyped by the national media.

I'm just happy that this "incumbents always win" crap we've been hearing is over.

[DC Al Fine]

PKP will continue to attend meetings of select Cabinet meetings, per Marois.

Mulcair reiterates that he'll raise corporate taxes to the pre-Harper 22% (from 15% now), but "personal income tax increases are not on the table." Nor is a wealth tax. Also open to CETA, but no firm commitment either way.
Manitoba federal poll pegs 42% CPC, 32% LPC, with a tie in Winnipeg and Tory drop from 65 to 50 outside the Perimeter.

Ugh, our trend of outperforming in by-elections may halt soon.

[DC Al Fine]

New EKOS poll: http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_16_2013.pdf

Proud to say that I administered it myself

Good on yah.

Is there any reason why EKOS tends to get higher results for the Greens compared to other pollsters?

[DC Al Fine]

Something I found interesting: Halifax has a higher median household income than Toronto and Vancouver. That's ridiculous, especially when you consider how much it costs to buy a house in TO or Vancouver compared to Halifax.