Canada General Discussion

[Hatman 🍁]

...

[You kip if you want to...]

Any chances of a Premier Horwath?

[Blue3]

So what's with this major terrorist attack that was thwarted?

[Hatman 🍁]

No word about any elections.

Any chances of a Premier Horwath?

Extremely unlikely, but hey 1990 happened. This race will be seen as more of a 3 way race than any election since perhaps 1995.

[RogueBeaver]

Details on that terrorist attack: AQ-inspired against a VIA passenger train. On a related note, Fadden is moving from CSIS to DM at DOD. New anti-terrorism legislation is being debated today: if time allocation is invoked the vote could be tomorrow night.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/04/22/pol-csis-fadden-defence.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/04/22/pol-terror-plot-ontario-quebec-arrests.html

Ontario: Total crapshoot right now. Quite conceivably seats and PV won't match.

[RogueBeaver]

They're not Canadian citizens but have Iranian connections.

In other news, Justice Fish is resigning from the Court. Talk about an action-packed day. His retirement takes effect Aug. 31, meaning the PM will have named 6/9 justices.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Unfortunately this is probably the best time the Ontario Liberals have to just go for broke and call an election. It makes sense, if it happens.

[Talleyrand]

So an Ontario provincial election is all but assured at this point, correct? Or am I missing something?

[RogueBeaver]

It depends on how Wynne and Horwath crunch their risk/reward calculator, as always in minority situations. Horwath laid down explicit policy markers and made a major deal of them, Wynne seemingly deliberately decided to not give them any concessions. Usually minimal (like Harper gave Layton in 2011) or zero budget concessions mean yes. All depends on what those 2 decide.

[RogueBeaver]

They're putting in an auto insurance proposal and corporate tax loophole elimination. Dunno if those will be to Horwath's taste.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2013/04/22/toronto-queens-park-liberal-government-budget.html?autoplay=true

[Hatman 🍁]

That will probably be enough.

[RogueBeaver]

Sousa's sending mixed signals and Horwath seems genuinely undecided, though given her dovish history I'll believe it when I see it. Unless Wynne pulls the trigger herself.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/04/22/will_ndps_andrea_horwath_keep_liberal_budget_alive.html

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/04/22/scott-stinson-nine-years-in-ontario-liberals-still-putting-off-the-tough-decisions/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

[RogueBeaver]

Poll-crunching by Grenier, plus the last 30 years of Environics polling.

Wynne: We won't be held hostage.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2013/04/23/ontario-premier-kathleen-wynne-budget-demands.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/why-trudeaus-polling-bump-may-not-last-long/article11496155/

[You kip if you want to...]

Is Trudeau really as good as the polls are making out or were Dion and Ignatieff just so crap?

I imagine it's not exactly the party's brand that's been damaged, per say, like in the case of the UK Tories, more just lack of inspiration and competence. It is, after all, difficult to hate centrist parties.

[RogueBeaver]

Scheer rules no prima facie breach of privilege, along the lines Ivison predicted yesterday. MPs will have to stand up in members' statements if they want to be recognized.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/04/22/john-ivison-speakers-ruling-on-mark-warawas-privilege-to-speak-freely-could-head-off-tory-rebellion/

F12: As the article points out the bounce is well within historical norms. The Liberal brand has been destroyed or damaged in various parts of the country for 55 years: hence the long eastward retreat. As the chart shows, beyond foolish to extrapolate midterm polls into election results. We'll know starting this summer, certainly by next year, whether this is a honeymoon or something else.


Peladeau: No, just no. Goes against everything (except the "national question") the PQ stands for, and they're uncomfortable enough with Marois' wealth as is.

http://www.canada.com/news/Macpherson%2BPierre%2BKarl%2BP%C3%A9ladeau%2Bnext%2Bleader/8278029/story.html

[DC Al Fine]

Is Trudeau really as good as the polls are making out or were Dion and Ignatieff just so crap?

Both Dion and Ignatieff had post leadership election bounces in the polls, however, Trudeau's is somewhat stronger. He'll probably come down to earth once the attack ads start, but he's a much more credible threat than previous leaders due to his charisma and fundraising ability.

[RogueBeaver]

More Ontario news: LCBO setting a strike deadline of May 17th if their demands aren't met. Wynne's first mediation test.

[RogueBeaver]

New Ipsos Ontario poll out: PC 37, NDP 29, OLP 28. Below the topline things are worse for Wynne: 60% think it's time for a change, etc. John Wright even said that it reminds him of Campbell's numbers.

http://www.newstalk1010.com/News/localnews/blogentry.aspx?BlogEntryID=10535834

Wright's full diagnosis, which he gave to Kinsella of all people...

http://warrenkinsella.com/2013/04/ipsos-guru-on-the-latest-ontario-numbers/

Looks like Horwath's getting a lot of what she wants, but political calculus might turn out differently.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/04/25/brace_for_postbudget_showdown_or_preelection_gambit_cohn.html


Meanwhile in Quebec, per CROP the PQ is tanking with the PLQ grabbing a double-digit lead over Marois, as the LPC's numbers also rebound into first.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201304/23/01-4643923-sondage-crop-la-trudeaumanie-revit-avec-justin.php?

[You kip if you want to...]

Meanwhile in Quebec, per CROP the PQ is tanking with the PLQ grabbing a double-digit lead over Marois, as the LPC's numbers also rebound into first.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201304/23/01-4643923-sondage-crop-la-trudeaumanie-revit-avec-justin.php?

How has the CPC suddenly surged?

[RogueBeaver]

That's just in Quebec City, traditionally right-of-centre. Province wide they're down to 10% from 16% in 2011. The remaining Quebec Tory MPs are mostly there due to their personal popularity.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne interview. She's still hoping Horwath saves the Grits, but privately is debate-prepping.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/04/27/kathleen_wynne_prepares_for_campaign_trail_as_budget_looms_cohn.html

[RogueBeaver]

Forum pegs Ontario at 36 apiece with Dippers back at 24. Would produce 59 OLP, 38 PC, NDP 10. Dunno which pollster to believe, but Ipsos has a better track record IIRC.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/04/29/kathleen_wynnes_liberals_jump_into_firstplace_tie_with_tories_poll.html

Federally, Ivison reminds us that retirement watch, geography and gender will determine who gets promoted this summer. Though for some reason he forgot Joe Oliver.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/04/28/young-tories-hoping-for-cabinet-post-mere-pawns-in-stephen-harpers-game/

[Hatman 🍁]

24% does not give the NDP "10 seats". lol

[DC Al Fine]

24% does not give the NDP "10 seats". lol

How in God's name do they think that marginal changes from 2011 will result in the NDP dropping 7 seats?

[RogueBeaver]

Forum's a joke pollster, so I won't post anything else of theirs.

LISPOP's projection, crunching the past few polls, is PC 45, OLP 38, NDP 24. Meanwhile Hudak's tabling an NCM over gas plants, which will fail.

http://lispop.ca/Ontarioseatprojection.html