Canada General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

Hasn't it always been this way though? Mutual indifference or near-venomous hostility? I for one don't think the former is at all a bad thing. Anyone who thinks love and roses will ever bloosom is, IMO, either ignorant or naive.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/the-two-solitudes-get-more-solitary/article2334620/

*Facepalm*

http://www.thespec.com/opinion/columns/article/670051--trudeau-s-boxing-bout-a-big-risk

[RogueBeaver]

Gun registry vote on Wednesday. I assume the rural opposition members will be whipped as usual.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/13/pol-gun-registry-third-reading.html

[RogueBeaver]

Today's QP: aboriginal issues and pensions. Can't wait till the budget comes down to shift this boring narrative.

[RogueBeaver]

Attawapiskat aside, I'm quite happy with the government's aboriginal policy. Harper's taking an etapiste approach which might finally bring results. As for pensions, no one knows for sure when the changes will take place. Though the Grits beclown themselves by attacking changes they themselves proposed back in the '90s. Rae is making a potentially very dangerous strategic error, looking ahead to 2015, if he decides that the votes lost are Orange rather than Blue Liberals. For now it's a correctable tactical error.

[RogueBeaver]

Of course not. I was just as appalled when Harper personally accused Martin of being soft on child porn back in '04.

[RogueBeaver]

Unfortunately some registry supporters came uncomfortably close to doing just that in December when no Tory MPs were invited to the Polytechnique commemoration. Not just the usual suspects, but normally level-headed MPs like Bennett and Trudeau.

My predictions for next month:

Pensions: Continues as usual, the precise details are announced at budget time. The debate dies a slow death and won't be remembered by summer recess.

Aboriginal issues: Fade slowly unless something else crops up.

F-35; Continues intermittently as it has for the past 2 years.

Le Match: Draw. Though if forced to choose a winner, I would put my pinky on the scale for Brazeau simply because he's more experienced.

[RogueBeaver]

Duceppe already said yesterday he has no regrets.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201202/13/01-4495538-lenquete-sur-gilles-duceppe-elargie.php

I'll be generous and say it was a rare bit of RL trolling.

http://voir.ca/josee-legault/2012/02/12/dun-trudeau-a-lautre/

RL trolling indeed. This happens about once a year with him- last year it was Honourgate.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/14/scary-hypotheticals-2/

[RogueBeaver]

Stephen Harper used a diluted version of that argument in the Firewall Letter. If he'd tweaked it to say "We need all regions to keep our current, moderate, political balance of power" then I'd agree. As the Globe points out, the chances of repealing gay marriage or imposing abortion restrictions are somewhere between zero and nil, so it isn't like this hypothesis will ever be tested. The rest of that interview is mostly restating that leadership will have to wait until his kids are older. In practice, his ambition to renew the family lease on Sussex is entirely dependent on how successful Bob Rae is 3 years from now.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/would-justin-trudeau-separate-from-stephen-harpers-canada-maybe/article2337672/

[RogueBeaver]

On another note, good news from MoD.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/mackay-secures-german-staging-base-for-post-afghan-missions/article2337581/


Not while Dad rules Queen's Park.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1130769--drummond-report-sweeping-education-reforms-recommended

[RogueBeaver]

Crime bills, jets and constituency issues.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the presser. He concedes everything but the two vital points: separatism references are out of line and that he made a mistake. No one is questioning his patriotism or federalism (double strawmanning), just his political judgment. Properly used, this sort of thing can be very useful to his career- but only if properly used.

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/1244504890/ID=2196736852

[RogueBeaver]

He is a fantastic strategist.

I hear that he's a brilliant chess player and approaches political strategy with a similar "ten moves ahead" long-term strategic view.

Indeed, but definitely not on tactics. At least once every few weeks something crops up, as with any government. In French we call that sort of strategic thinking etapisme. It was pioneered here by Sir John A. - I'm slightly paraphrasing but the quote is essentially "I take the long view, but they couldn't forego exulting in a temporary triumph." Layton was also a master of this game, one of the reasons why he and Harper bonded (and enjoyed simultaneous electoral success last year) despite their political differences. Layton's gone. Rae is certainly capable of it, we'll see if he can pull it off. Ditto for Topp and Mulcair.


Not all PMs are like that though. Pierre Trudeau was a good policy strategist on national unity but never cared much about electoral strategy, else he'd have made very different policy choices than he did. Mulroney on most issues was a good policy strategist but in the long term failed at electoral strategy. Chretien was a fantastic tactician but a godawful strategist electorally. Harper's the reverse.

[RogueBeaver]

We just spent the better part of a page discussing that. He's made this point for years, but in an responsible way. We all know he's a consummate dramatist at the best of times. (As he reminded us at the presser) My best guess is that he's bored as a backbencher ever since Rae tossed him from Shadow Cabinet last May and wanted to throw a grenade to stir up trouble. In the medium term, time and responsibility (which depends entirely on Rae's whim) will probably cure him of that hotheadedness, or at least he'll learn how to control it. Absolutely necessary if he's really set on fulfilling his prime ministerial ambition.


http://www.cyberpresse.ca/la-tribune/sherbrooke/201005/12/01-4279688-trudeau-comprend-que-les-quebecois-soient-cyniques.php

[RogueBeaver]

IMO: Pull C-30, keep C-15.

http://www.canada.com/news/Tandt%2BConservatives%2Bcommon%2Bsense%2Bsave%2Bbizarre%2Bcrime%2Bfixation/6152522/story.html

Somewhere between these two. I still think the best slot for him right now is Natural Resources. Nothing to do with "values" and a subject on which he holds explicitly centrist views.

 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/silver-powers/justin-trudeau-jumps-the-shark/article2339369/

http://blogs.canada.com/2012/02/15/whos-kidding-who-justin-trudeau-could-take-quebec/

I respect Hebert a lot, but this column sounds awfully Simpsonian.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131856--hebert-harper-s-alienation-of-quebec-just-what-the-liberals-need

QP: Jets and pensions.

[RogueBeaver]

Then either amend C-15 or use the notwithstanding clause. By 2015 most of the SCOC justices will be Harper appointees, so he can reintroduce it then if necessary.

I agree with Toews and Trudeau (partial redemption for yesterday?) here: this sort of sleazy sh**t has no business in our politics.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/anonymous-twitter-user-turns-tables-on-tory-champion-of-e-snooping-bill/article2339463/

[RogueBeaver]

Fat chance Dad cuts harder than Mike Harris.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/15/andrew-coyne-drummond-report-signals-start-of-dalton-mcguintys-lean-years/

[RogueBeaver]

Again?

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2012/02/15/liberal-mp-accuses-ndp-of-dirty-tricks

[RogueBeaver]

If nothing else, it would be a useful test of those (IMO, bogus) polls showing the Grits leading here. On the matter of defections we're in agreement. I just don't agree with this sort of harassment, whether it's my party doing it to Cotler or yours doing it to her.

[RogueBeaver]

It will take a few more years of Dad before this sort of slashing can take place (under a PC government), especially in the so-called "fenced" areas. Mike Harris' premiership needed Bob Rae's.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1132127--cohn-drummond-report-merely-the-end-of-the-beginning

[RogueBeaver]

Ex-ce-llent.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-unveil-bill-to-thwart-bogus-refugees/article2340521/

[RogueBeaver]

Immigration bill, gun registry, C-30.

[RogueBeaver]

Ugh. Lisee is a vile RL troll. I mean really, he basically argued that withdrawing Bill 150 made Bou-Bou a race traitor.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342813/combat-extreme-lisee-germain

EDIT: I threw up a little after reading some of the comments.

[RogueBeaver]

That's not funny, it's vile shiit which has no place in our public discourse.

[RogueBeaver]

Coyne's doing what his fellow At Issue panelists did last night: overanalyzing this. If they're spilling so much ink over a fairly minor incident, imagine how much ink they'll spill if/when the Musketeer runs for leader. Only Harper himself will get more...

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/17/andrew-coyne-the-problem-with-justin-trudeaus-petty-separatism-threat-is-that-its-so-commonplace/

Yaffe's opinion is mine.

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2012/02/17/justin-trudeau-not-ready-for-prime-time/

[RogueBeaver]

Maher agrees with you guys on Toews. My real objection is that we don't have that tradition up here... were this the US I'd be fine with it. To each country its own politico-journalistic tradition.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/Maher%2BToews%2Bmade%2Bhimself%2BTwitter%2Btarget%2Bwith%2Bpornographers%2Bcrack/6171839/story.html

I never liked what I heard of this course, but the ruling makes sense.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/02/16/supreme-court-canada-religion-education-challenge.html

Take it as a badge of honour.

http://www.newwestnewsleader.com/news/139478293.html