If Ford won in 76, would Ted Kennedy have won in 80?

[Jerseyrules]

Reagan would be the GOP nominee; no way to butterfly that away.  Also, it's likely that a crapload of Dems would flock to the primaries; there would be a lot of people in line to succeed 12 years of scandal-ridden GOP rule.  If the 6-year itch is bad, the 10-year itch in 78 would've been a nightmare for Ford.  So all in all, Teddy would likely not win the Dem primary due to perception that he was establishment, and that he'd probably split the liberal vote with the (likely) entrances of both Walter Mondale and Gary Hart; the latter would probably come out on top.  If either Ted or Hart won the Dem nomination, the GOP would have a field day with the sex scandals from both; so depending on how bad the scandals take with the American people, it's a defeat for either side at least as severe as 2008; it wouldn't be close.  So that being said, Reagan likely could've pulled it off but it would be tough.  If he wins, he loses in 1984 and the GOP lose the Congress badly in 1982.  If he loses, the GOP has a chance at making a comeback in 1982, and fields a likeable, smalltown guy like Paul Laxalt in 1984.  Laxalt would likely win, assuming that the sex scandals are used properly

[Jerseyrules]

I guess I was thinking of Hart because of Then Everything Changed by Jeff Greenfield; Ford narrowly wins the electoral vote because he doesn't make his gaff about "people in Eastern Europe aren't and will never be under Soviet domination during a Ford administration"; then Hart wins in 1980.  Carter was really more of a conservative than Gerry when it boils down to their positions on issues, and America would be much less conservative without Ronald Reagan (the people; Reagan wasn't really a conservative when you look at his record)

[Jerseyrules]

If Gerry means Gerald Ford, then I'd beg to differ. They were ideologically close together & both were moderate. However, by 1976, Ford had steadied himself & was becoming much tougher with the Soviets. Carter still had his two years of naïveté ahead of him before he became tougher on the foreign front. Economically & socially, they were roughly in the same boat & were the two most fiscally conservative administrations up until Clinton.

Yes they were the same ideologically, but with Ford there'd be no Reagan, and Ted Kennedy with a Democratic Congress scares the crap out of me.  At least with Reagan we got someone with balls and a GOP Senate

[Jerseyrules]

Well you were just saying that Carter was more Cpbservative than Ford, & that Reagan wasn't a real Conservative.

I meant that Reagan's not a fiscal conservative, and Ford greatly expanded the Great Society, making him worse than Carter, who attempted to reform welfare and Medicaid but Tip O'Neil stopped him in his tracks

[Jerseyrules]

With Ford in the White House, and thus continuing detente, I'd say a hawkish Democrat would win in 1980.

Henry Martin Jackson.

That is tricky. By 1976, Ford had definitely gained more teeth in foreign policy and by then had booted Kissinger out of NSA and had brought in Rumsfeld--definitely more hawkish that "realist" Kissinger--as Secretary of Defense. I think in foreign policy Ford would move steadily to the Right during his hypothetical second term.

Would ford have had any coat tails?  And if so, would the GOP have had a chance in Hell of taking either house of Congress by 1984?

[Jerseyrules]

Ford's coattails at 1976 would be at maximum keeping seats at Michigan and Ohio and maybe keeping Democrats from winning seats at Nebraska and Tennessee. I think that in best of probabilities, he could have prevented a filibuster-proof Democratic majority, that could be transformed at veto-proof, what means a lame-duck 2nd half of mandate, but I doubt this because there were many moderate democratics at Senate, although things could get radicalized without Baker at helm of Republican's bench.

Interesting; does Reagan help the GOP out in 78 and 80 (the latter by heading the ticket)?

[Jerseyrules]

No. Ted Kennedy was unelectable.

^^^^

[Jerseyrules]

A Reagan/Kennedy smackdown would be the ultimate slugfest of alternate historians dreams.

Being a Kennedy, I think Ted would have had a good chance of becoming president.

You're a Kennedy?  How are you related (not to be a stalker or anything, but that's pretty cool .)  Not to go off topic, but my dad once crashed a fundraiser of his when he was in MA (I think it was when he was running against romney in 94.)

[Jerseyrules]

A Reagan/Kennedy smackdown would be the ultimate slugfest of alternate historians dreams.

Being a Kennedy, I think Ted would have had a good chance of becoming president.

You're a Kennedy?  How are you related (not to be a stalker or anything, but that's pretty cool .)  Not to go off topic, but my dad once crashed a fundraiser of his when he was in MA (I think it was when he was running against romney in 94.)

He's talking about Ted being a Kennedy (I think).

Ya youre probably right

[Jerseyrules]

A Reagan/Kennedy smackdown would be the ultimate slugfest of alternate historians dreams.

Being a Kennedy, I think Ted would have had a good chance of becoming president.

You're a Kennedy?  How are you related (not to be a stalker or anything, but that's pretty cool .)  Not to go off topic, but my dad once crashed a fundraiser of his when he was in MA (I think it was when he was running against romney in 94.)

Sorry, I did not mean to imply I am KENNEDY. I was referring to Ted being a Kennedy.

If it's any consolation, I am a distant relative of William Jennings Bryan.

Neat.  So you're a Republican how?

[Jerseyrules]

Haha, understandable.  My Grandma is a Republican beacuse she liked Ike "because he was tall and German" and her husband was a conservative, Strom Thurmond/George Wallace/Reagan Democrat.  My dad's a Mitt Romney Republican now.

[Jerseyrules]

Haha, understandable.  My Grandma is a Republican beacuse she liked Ike "because he was tall and German" and her husband was a conservative, Strom Thurmond/George Wallace/Reagan Democrat.  My dad's a Mitt Romney Republican now.

Sorry about your dad.

Haha, it's okay, I'm working on him   He's a closet Paulbot, I know it.