If Ford won in 76, would Ted Kennedy have won in 80? (user search)
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  If Ford won in 76, would Ted Kennedy have won in 80? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Ford won in 76, would Ted Kennedy have won in 80?  (Read 3182 times)
MRX
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« on: January 02, 2012, 12:29:34 PM »

With a Ford wins, I can see Democrats making some gains at Senate in 1978. They could keep seats in New Hampshire and Iowa, while gaining Dole's seat at special. Republicans would think more before defeat Clifford Case at Primary. Helms, Tower and Domenici would end being unseated and even Thurmond and Baker would be at risk in 1978. Democrats would think into putting someone that can creat a bridge between Southern and Northern voters. Strongest names would be Mondale, Grasso (before cancer), Jerry Brown, Frank Church, Ed Muskie, Hugh Carey, Reubin Askew and Daniel Moynihan. Brown and Grasso can attract many people into primaries, although Askew is the favourite, unless another southern guy (Bumpers, Bentsen or even Wallace appears). I think that Askew would be safest choice for general, but I think that Church is also a great option, although I think that nomination would go to Askew anyway.
In Foreign Policy, Ford would have to manage a pressure from Torrijos for giving Panama Channel. In Nicaragua, i think that Somoza would still receive help from USA and hold on. I doubt that Camp David agreements would occur as in OTL, because Begin would be less willing to cede. This means Sadat' survival. Iran's fate was certain. Neither Kissinger or Ford could save the Shah. This means 2nd Oil Crisis and more of economic troubles that doomed Carter. Afghanistan can be a gate of salvation towards Republicans, like Embassy's crisis at Iran.
Republicans would beg to Reagan to run, in order to giving a "saving face" result. Dole would skip 1980 as he knows that landslide will come against him. Moderate wing can give Reagan a free run, knowing that this election is lost, but knowing that Brown that would be favourite to get Democrat nomination is not strong, they can field a candidate between Hartfield, Percy, Matthias and Weicker. Rumsfeld and Bush can try too, like Howard Baker, if re-elected to Senate.
In Primary, my 1st option would be Grasso, but if she doesn't run, I'd go to Brown and after this, to Church.

Greenfield is right about the Democrats gaining seats and the Camp David agreements, but definitely had a different opinion on Iran. When writing the book, he talked to Brent Sowcroft who was Ford's NSA, and Sowcroft said this about Iran: "Carter had Vietnam angst. He thought we had been wrong; he thought America would have to pay a price. With Carter, the U.S. would've been on the defense. Ford didn't have any of that." A Ford administration, he says, would have worked with Iran to help nip Iranian demonstrations and insurgency in the bud. Sowcroft also told Greenfield what the Middle East would hypothetically look like in this scenario. Of course, it's impossible to predict Alternate History exactly as there are so many factors and scenarios involved.
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