Tender Branson's General Election Maps (user search)
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Author Topic: Tender Branson's General Election Maps  (Read 39815 times)
Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 395
Germany


« on: December 19, 2011, 03:07:17 PM »
sorry but these map are strange if Mitt Romney will win MI there is no way he will lose FL or NC

and to think The Grinch could lose TX but win OH is crazy too

IMO
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Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 395
Germany


« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2011, 04:29:32 PM »
http://www.facebook.com/groups/185054414852195/

there you can find my maps based on the polls
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Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 395
Germany


« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2011, 05:37:13 AM »
how can I post a map here??
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Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 395
Germany


« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2011, 04:10:42 PM »
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Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 395
Germany


« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2011, 05:40:47 PM »
no its based on the polls but I dont replace one poll result with another I take the middle

for example:

Today you have a poll for Michigan Obama leads Romney 46/44 and tomorrow another pollster show Romney leading Obama 45/42 then today you would give MI to Obama and the next day to Romney in my electoral map it would be Romney 44.5 and 44 for Obama= a tie
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Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 395
Germany


« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2012, 04:30:31 PM »
Here`s my weekly electoral map:

GOP Primary: National: Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are the frontrunners now!

Romney:38.4% Santorum:27.2% Gingrich:13.2% Paul:12.0%

Romney :AK AZ CA CT FL HI ID IL MA MD ME MI NH NJ NV NY OH OR RI SD UT VA VT WA WY

Gingrich:GA KY MT NE NM SC WV

Santorum:AL CO IA IN LA MN MO MS NC ND OK PA TN TX WI

IA Caucus: Jan.3:
RS24.6% MR24.5% RP21.5% NG13.3% RP010.3% MB05.0% JH00.6%   25 Delegates
NH Primary: Jan.10:
MR39.3% RP22.9% JH16.9% NG09.4% RS09.4% RP00.7%    12 Delegates
SC Primary: Jan.21: NG40.4% MR27.9% RS17.0% RP13.0%    25 Delegates
FL Primary: Jan.31: MR46.4% NG31.9% RS13.3% RP07.0%    50 Delegates
NV Primary: Feb.04:   MR50.0% NG21.1% RP18.7% RS09.9%    28 Delegates
ME Primary: Feb.04-11: MR:39.2% RP:35.7% RS17.7% NG:06.3% 24 Delegates   
Co Caucus: Feb.07:   RS40.2% MR:34.9% NG:12.8% RP:11.8%    36 Delegates
MN Primary: Feb.07:   RS44.8% RP27.2% MR16.9% NG10.7% 40 Delegates   
MO Primary: Feb.07:   RS55.2% MR25.3% RP12.2%    00 Delegates
AZ Primary: Feb.28:   MR47.3% RS26.6% NG16.2% RP08.5%    29 Delegates
MI Primary: Feb.28:   MR41.1% RS37.9% RP11.6% NG06.5% 30 Delegates
WY Caucus: Feb.29:   MR39.0%   RS31.9% RP20.8% NG07.8%    29 Delegates   
WA Caucus: Mar.3:   MR37.6% RP24.8% RS23.8% NG10.3%    43Delegates
AK Caucus: Mar.6:   MR32.6% RS29% RP24.0% NG14.2%    27 Delegates
GA Primary: Mar.6:   NG47.2% MR25.9% RS19.6% RP:06.5%    76 Delegates
ID Caucus: Mar.6:   MR63.2% RP17.4% RS17.1% NG02.2%    32 Delegates
MA Primary: Mar.6:   MR:72.1% RP:12.1% RS09.6% NG:04.0%    41 Delegates
ND Caucus: Mar.6:   RS39.7% RP28.1% MR23.7% NG08.5%    28 Delegates
OH Primary: Mar.6:   MR38.4% RS37.4% NG14.8% RP09.4%    66 Delegates
OK Primary: Mar.6:   RS33.8% MR28.0% NG27.5% RP09.6%    43 Delegates
TN Primary: Mar.6:   RS37.2% MR28.0% NG24.0% RP09.1% 58 Delegates
VT Primary: Mar.6:   MR40.3% RP25.1% RS23.4% NG08.3%    17 Delegates
VA Primary: Mar.6:   MR59.5% RP40.5%    49 Delegates
KS Caucus: Mar.10:   RS:51.2 MR:20.9% NG:14.4 RP:12.6%    40 Delegates
NMI: Mar.10:    MR:87.3% RS:06.3% RP:03.3% NG:03.2%    09 Delegates
VI Caucus : Mar.10 :   MR:34.4% RP:29.2% RS:06.0% NG:04.7%    09 Delegates
Guam Caucus : Mar. 10: MR:100%    09 Delegates
AL Primary: Mar. 13:   RS:34.5% NG29.3% MR29.0% RP05.0%    50 Delegates
HI Caucus: Mar.13:   MR45.4% RS25.3% RP:18.3% NG11.0%    20 Delegates
MS Primary: Mar.13:    RS32.9% NG31.3% MR30.3% RP04.4%    40 Delegates
AS Caucus: Mar.13:   MR:100%    09 Delegates
PR Primary: Mar.18:
MR:82.9% RS:08.0% BR:02.2% NG:02.0% FK:01.7% RP:01.2%    23 Delegates
IL Primary: Mar.20:   MR:46.7% RS:35.0% RP:09.3% NG:07.9%    54Delegates

LA Primary: Mar.24:    RS49.0% MR:26.7% NG:15.9% RP:06.2%    20 Delegates
MD Primary: Apr.03:   no polls but Romney should win here    37 Delegates
DC Primary: Apr.03:   no polls    but Romney should win here    19 Delegates   
Wi Primary: Apr.03:   MR36.8% NG07.6% RP10.1% RS31.4%    42 Deelegates


Delegates:   
Mitt Romney:    564 + 32 +2 = 598
Ron Paul:    068 + 01 = 069
RickSantorum:    288 + 02 = 290
Newt Gingrich:    140    + 03 = 143


If the presidential election would be held today a Generic GOP candidate could get 323EV! President Obama could get 205EV! 10EV from MN are a toss-up! A candidate needs 270EV to get elected!

Mitt Romney    53.2%    45.0%   Barack Hussein Obama
Rick Santorum    51.4%    47.7%   Barack Hussein Obama
Newt Gingrich    45.3%    51.5%   Barack Hussein Obama
Ron Paul    47.6%    47.8%   Barack Hussein Obama

If its Mitt Romney against Obama it would be:
290 EV   218 EV   030 EV toss-up

If its Newt Gingrich against Obama it would be:
149 EV   389 EV   000 EV toss-up

If its Ron Paul against Obama it would be:
215 EV   221 EV   102 EV   toss-up

If its Rick Santorum against Obama it would be:
176 EV   216 EV   146 EV   toss-up

Senate:
2010:   GOP: 47    DEM: 51   IND: 02   
2012:   GOP: 52 DEM: 45 IND: 01 -1   Toss-up: 2
Takeover   GOP:    MO MT NE VA WI   
DEM:
Toss-up:   CT FL


Governor:
2010:   GOP: 29    DEM: 20   IND: 01   
2012:   GOP: 33 DEM: 16 IND: 01 Toss-up: 1
Takeover   GOP:    MT NC WA WV
DEM:
Toss-up:   IN


President: Approve/Disapprove

Strong approve Obama:
CA: (53.2/41.0)
DC (85.0/15.0)   
DE:(56.6/43.5)
HI (59.2/36.7)
MA (56.0/38.2)   
MD (54.4/41.6)
NY (65.1/29.3)
VT (54.3/37.3)

Lean approve Obama:   
CT:(52.8/43.3)
IL: (51.9/42.2)
MI (50.5/43.4)
RI (51.4/41.5)
NJ: (50.6/43.0)
WA (50.2/44.9)
WI: (49.9/44.Cool

Weak approve Obama:


Strong disapprove :   
AL (59.9/39.0)
AK (59.8/38.Cool
AZ (54.7/41.0)
AR (63.7/33.2)
ID (71.0/29.0)
IN (56.0/40.5)
KS (62.2/36.0)
KY (58.0/35.9)
LA (59.7/39.0)
MS (57.8/39.7)
MT (58.6/38.Cool
NE (60.6/37.3)
ND (60.7/38.7)
OK (66.4/33.4)
SD (58.1/40.7)
TN (52.4/39.6)
TX (52.8/39.7)
UT (69.3/28.1)
WV (63.3/29.1)
WY (68.9/30.4)

Lean disapprove:
CO (50.0/43.Cool
FL (50.6/46.0)
GA (49.6/42.Cool
MO (52.1/42.Cool
NH (50.0/43.2)
NM: (49.7/44.3)
NV (50.1/43.9)
OH (49.5/43.6)
OR:(52.7/44.6)
PA (49.6/45.2)
SC (49.1/43.6)

Weak disapprove :
IA: (47.7/45.7)
ME:(47.7/47.0)
NC (50.2/47.0)
VA: (47.0/48.3)

Toss-up:
MN:( 46.9/46.9)
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Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 395
Germany


« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2012, 05:17:57 PM »
GOP Primary: National: Mitt Romney is the frontrunners now!

Romney:41.4% Paul:10.7% Gingrich:09.8%


Romney :AK AZ CA CT DC FL HI IN ID IL MA MD ME MI NH NC NJ NV NY OH OR PA RI SD TX UT VA VT WA WI WY

Gingrich:GA KY MT NE NM SC WV

Santorum:AL CO IA LA MN MO MS ND OK TN


IA Caucus: Jan.3:
RS24.6% MR24.5% RP21.5% NG13.3% RP010.3% MB05.0% JH00.6% 25 Delegates

NH Primary: Jan.10:
MR39.3% RP22.9% JH16.9% NG09.4% RS09.4% RP00.7% 12 Delegates

SC Primary: Jan.21:
NG40.4% MR27.9% RS17.0% RP13.0% 25 Delegates

FL Primary: Jan.31:
MR46.4% NG31.9% RS13.3% RP07.0% 50 Delegates

NV Primary: Feb.04:
MR50.0% NG21.1% RP18.7% RS09.9% 28 Delegates

ME Primary: Feb.04-11: MR:39.2% RP:35.7% RS17.7% NG:06.3% 24 Delegates

Co Caucus: Feb.07: RS40.2% MR:34.9% NG:12.8% RP:11.8% 36 Delegates
MN Primary: Feb.07: RS44.8% RP27.2% MR16.9% NG10.7% 40 Delegates
MO Primary: Feb.07: RS55.2% MR25.3% RP12.2% 00 Delegates
AZ Primary: Feb.28: MR47.3% RS26.6% NG16.2% RP08.5% 29 Delegates
MI Primary: Feb.28: MR41.1% RS37.9% RP11.6% NG06.5% 30 Delegates
WY Caucus: Feb.29: MR39.0% RS31.9% RP20.8% NG07.8% 29 Delegates
WA Caucus: Mar.3: MR37.6% RP24.8% RS23.8% NG10.3% 43Delegates
AK Caucus: Mar.6: MR32.6% RS29% RP24.0% NG14.2% 27 Delegates
GA Primary: Mar.6: NG47.2% MR25.9% RS19.6% RP:06.5% 76 Delegates
ID Caucus: Mar.6: MR63.2% RP17.4% RS17.1% NG02.2% 32 Delegates
MA Primary: Mar.6: MR:72.1% RP:12.1% RS09.6% NG:04.0% 41 Delegates
ND Caucus: Mar.6: RS39.7% RP28.1% MR23.7% NG08.5% 28 Delegates
OH Primary: Mar.6: MR38.4% RS37.4% NG14.8% RP09.4% 66 Delegates
OK Primary: Mar.6: RS33.8% MR28.0% NG27.5% RP09.6% 43 Delegates
TN Primary: Mar.6: RS37.2% MR28.0% NG24.0% RP09.1% 58 Delegates
VT Primary: Mar.6: MR40.3% RP25.1% RS23.4% NG08.3% 17 Delegates
VA Primary: Mar.6: MR59.5% RP40.5% 49 Delegates
KS Caucus: Mar.10: RS:51.2 MR:20.9% NG:14.4 RP:12.6% 40 Delegates
NMI: Mar.10: MR:87.3% RS:06.3% RP:03.3% NG:03.2% 09 Delegates
VI Caucus : Mar.10 : MR:34.4% RP:29.2% RS:06.0% NG:04.7% 09 Delegates
Guam Caucus : Mar. 10: MR:100% 09 Delegates
AL Primary: Mar. 13: RS:34.5% NG29.3% MR29.0% RP05.0% 50 Delegates
HI Caucus: Mar.13: MR45.4% RS25.3% RP:18.3% NG11.0% 20 Delegates
MS Primary: Mar.13: RS32.9% NG31.3% MR30.3% RP04.4% 40 Delegates
AS Caucus: Mar.13: MR:100% 09 Delegates

PR Primary: Mar.18: MR:82.9% RS:08.0% BR:02.2% NG:02.0% FK:01.7% RP:01.2% 23 Delegates

IL Primary: Mar.20: MR:46.7% RS:35.0% RP:09.3% NG:07.9% 54Delegates
MO Caucus: Apr.10: no polls but Santorum should win here
LA Primary: Mar.24: RS49.0% MR:26.7% NG:15.9% RP:06.2% 20 Delegates
MD Primary: Apr.03: MR49.1% RS28.9% NG10.9% RP09.5% 37 Delegates
DC Primary: Apr.03: MR70.2% RP12.0% NG10.7% JH07.0% 19 Delegates
Wi Primary: Apr.03: MR42.5% RS37.6% RP11.7% NG06.1% 42Deelegates

Prediction:
CT Primary: Apr.24: MR:36.7% NG:20.4% RP.07.8% 28 Delegates

DE Primary: Apr.24: no polls available yet 17 Delegates

NY Primary: Apr.24: MR47.7% NG09.2% RP10.5% 95 Delegates

PA Primary: Apr.24: MR37.3% NG06.7% RP08.3% 72 Delegates

RI Primary: Apr.24: MR39.0% NG13.0% RP05.0% 19 Delegates

Delegates:
Mitt Romney: 647 + 32 +2 = 681
Ron Paul: 068 + 01 = 069
RickSantorum: 291 + 02 = 293
Newt Gingrich: 140 + 03 = 143

If the presidential election would be held today a Generic GOP candidate could get 339 EV!President Obama could get 189 EV! 10EV from MN are a toss-up!
A candidate needs 270 EV to get elected!

Mitt Romney 51.0% 46.4% Barack Hussein Obama
Newt Gingrich 45.8% 50.3% Barack Hussein Obama
Ron Paul 47.6% 46.1% Barack Hussein Obama

If its Mitt Romney against Obama it would be: 204 EV 220 EV 114 EV toss-up

If its Newt Gingrich against Obama it would be: 149 EV 374 EV 015 EV toss-up

If its Ron Paul against Obama it would be: 215 EV 221 EV 102 EV toss-up


Senate:
2010: GOP: 47 DEM: 51 IND: 02
2012: GOP: 49 DEM: 46 IND: 02 Toss-up: 3
Takeover GOP: MO MT NE VA
DEM:
IND: ME
Toss-up: CT MA WI

Governor:
2010: GOP: 29 DEM: 20 IND: 01
2012: GOP: 32 DEM: 16 IND: 01 Toss-up: 2
Takeover GOP: MT NC WA WV
DEM:
Toss-up: IN WI


President: Approve/Disapprove



Strong approve Obama:

CA: (53.2/41.0)

DC (85.0/15.0)

DE:(56.6/43.5)

HI (59.2/36.7)

MA (56.0/38.6)

MD (54.4/41.6)

NY (59.2/36.4)

VT (54.3/37.3)



Lean approve Obama:

CT:(52.8/43.3)

IL: (51.9/42.2)

ME:(47.7/47.0)

RI (51.4/41.5)

NJ: (50.6/43.0)

WA (50.2/44.9)



Weak approve Obama:

WI: (50.2/43.5)



Strong disapprove :

AL (59.9/39.0)

AK (59.8/38.Cool

AZ (54.7/41.0)

AR (63.7/33.2)

ID (71.0/29.0)

IN (56.0/39.7)

KS (62.2/36.0)

KY (58.0/35.9)

LA (59.7/39.0)

MS (57.8/39.7)

MT (58.6/38.Cool

NE (55.5/37.7)

ND (60.7/38.7)

OK (66.4/33.4)

SD (58.1/40.7)

TN (52.4/39.6)

TX (52.8/39.7)

UT (69.3/28.1)

WV (63.3/29.1)

WY (68.9/30.4)



Lean disapprove:

GA (49.6/42.Cool

MI (49.2/47.2)

MO (52.1/42.Cool

NH (50.0/43.2)

NM: (49.7/44.3)

OH (49.3/45.3)

OR:(52.7/44.6)

PA (50.2/43.Cool

SC (49.1/43.6)

VA: (48.7/44.7)



Weak disapprove :

CO (48.5/46.9)

FL (49.8/46.5)

IA: (47.7/45.7)

NC (49.6/45.5)

NV (48.0/46.9)



Toss-up:

MN:( 46.9/46.9)
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