Prediction: Michele Bachmann will be the GOP nominee.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yes, I know I know. My prediction record is poor; I said Palin would be the nominee, and she hasn't even run. Palin, despite all appearances, is more shrewd and maneuverable than any of the other GOP'ers. She's the only one in either party who both is a strong media draw, and seems to actually have tapped into the vein of popular disgust over corruption. But Bachmann has always been the most Palin-like candidate; at one point she was called a Palin clone. And she is running, so that removes that.

Here's my theory: The Republicans are looking for a nutter, a purist. That's pretty well established. Romney just won't do. Numerous possibilities, Trump, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, have all been flavors of the week. But whereas Trump, Perry, and Cain were all felled by fatal flaws (not running; immigration & Department-gate; sexual harassment & not even trying) the only reason Bachmann fell from favor is because Perry had entered the race and built up a huge bubble. At the time she was leading, she did come under scrutiny, and the worst thing that could be found was that she has migraines, which is a non-scandal. Yes, she makes nutty remarks on a regular basis, but does the GOP primary electorate really care about that?

Anyone who thinks Newt Gingrich will be the nominee is smoking. He has about five hundred skeletons in his closet, and a hundred of them fell out last week. Not to mention, his stance on immigration at tonight's debate will be fatal. Romney has a hard cap at 30%, and Paul has a hard cap at about 15%. Bachmann will emerge as the anti-Romney and win the nomination. If not for her it would be Santorum.

I do believe you are essentially correct.

[pbrower2a]

This is what a reprise of Nixon vs. McGovern in 1972 or Reagan vs. Mondale in 1984 would look like as a Democratic victory in 2012 except that at this point gray is  less garish than red.

[Badger]

That would be the most beautiful map since 1936 1964.

Don't count on it with the economy. Obama's best bet with her would be a slightly bigger victory than Clinton 96.

Corrected for accuracy.

[Username MechaRFK]

One of the ways that progressive elements of the media attack the right is by caricaturing them as uneducated simpletons. They do this by exaggerating the popularity and influence of people like Palin, Trump, and Bachmann, and in doing so, they unintentionally enable them.

Add George W Bush and Ronald Reagan to the list of Republicans that had influence among the party but were criticize  for their anti-intellectualism and uneducated statements among many issues.

[Beet]

Beet, you seem to make this assumption that voters just have terrible judgment. I think more highly of them. The demonstrably unfit over time are cast off and out almost always.

I make best guesses based on 'intelligence'. The most unfit have no means been cast off- in fact, they tend to be favored.

[Beet]

One of the ways that progressive elements of the media attack the right is by caricaturing them as uneducated simpletons. They do this by exaggerating the popularity and influence of people like Palin, Trump, and Bachmann, and in doing so, they unintentionally enable them.

Oh, it's no attack. I hope that I am wrong.

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I agree she's not popular. I just think that she's hit on exactly the right message with her anti-corruption theme. The far left and far right are actually united on this, and the passion is deep, deeper than anything I've ever seen since the 1990s at least (except for maybe some of the Hillary loathing at times by both sides). People won't accept that if the banks hadn't been bailed out, there would have been a deep depression that would have lasted a long time and hurt the poor more than the rich, so since the bank bailouts, they've become convinced that our government is deeply corrupt.

There's also a lot of truth to that in general, money has become a bigger and bigger factor in American politics since the end of the 'party machines' of the 1830s-1970s. While the party machines were corrupt, they were the 'poor man's corruption', hence fundamentally democratic and acceptable. This new kind of corruption we've had since the introduction of the primary system and television advertising is only open to K street, and people on both the left and right are rebelling against it. Astonishingly, no mainstream politician has dared to fully tap into this vein, the only person who had done it is Sarah Palin. If a left-wing politician were to do so I believe that person would get a historic boost. In that sense, Palin is a genius.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Are you on Gardasil?

This is one of my favorite posts in recent memory. Thank you Sir.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I guess we can make this the first "bump, lol" of the new year.

[sentinel]

Hey Beet, you willing to put some money on this?

[Link]

Well I guess we can make this the first "bump, lol" of the new year.

Too late.  I've bumped a couple of threads from like August.  Those $h-ts were soooo wrong it wasn't even funny.  People were mmmaaadd.  More power to you my brotha'!  Bump these $h-ts!

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yeah, the GOP are crazy, but they aren't thatcrazy.

[Eraserhead]

Beet, you're clearly a very smart guy but I really think it's time for you to abandon the whole "political predictions" thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Beet, you're clearly a very smart guy but I really think it's time for you to abandon the whole "political predictions" thing.

Wasn't Beet talking about betting on InTrade too? I'd advise him to just stay away from that. Not too different from advising him to stay away from stock trading after he thought Citibank was a good buy.

[Bull Moose Base]

Bachmann is a nasty, insane, ignorant, blatantly unqualified presidential candidate who was rejected by conservative Iowa voters because she was a woman.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bachmann is a nasty, insane, ignorant, blatantly unqualified presidential candidate who was rejected by conservative Iowa voters because she was a woman.

If that was the case they would've never bothered with having her win that meaningless straw poll or the flavor of the month to begin with. They rejected her because they realized that the first part was true and that was too much even for the Republicans.