FL: Rasmussen: Romney leads Obama by 4

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Florida President by Rasmussen on 2011-11-17

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Minnesota Mike]

I guess Scotty found a state where he has a real life Republican candidate leading Obama, no need to only post the Generic Republican/Obama numbers.

FWIW I think Florida is going  to very close again this cycle, with Obama losing some support among white voters but being helped by an increasingly diverse electorate. 

[pbrower2a]

I guess Scotty found a state where he has a real life Republican candidate leading Obama, no need to only post the Generic Republican/Obama numbers.

FWIW I think Florida is going  to very close again this cycle, with Obama losing some support among white voters but being helped by an increasingly diverse electorate. 

I concur. "Generic Republican" won't be running. The President will need to invest some campaign appearances in the state, his campaign apparatus will need to organize a strong GOTV effort, and he will need a coherent message tailored to Florida with much media attention to the state. Which of these does anyone wish to bet against?

[memphis]

Florida is a tough state. No doubt about it. I expect polls showing these 29 EVs going both ways all the way through Nov 2012.

[Skill and Chance]

Florida is a tough state. No doubt about it. I expect polls showing these 29 EVs going both ways all the way through Nov 2012.

If Obama wins Florida, he has already won the election pretty easily.

[pbrower2a]

Florida is a tough state. No doubt about it. I expect polls showing these 29 EVs going both ways all the way through Nov 2012.

That is precisely what is meant by a "swing state"; it could go either way in a 50-50 election. The state decided the 2000 election, the closest in modern American history.   

[memphis]

Florida is a tough state. No doubt about it. I expect polls showing these 29 EVs going both ways all the way through Nov 2012.

If Obama wins Florida, he has already won the election pretty easily.

Pennsylvania and Michigan have had some interesting polls, especially with Romney as the nominee. And Ohio is really unpredictable. I think you're right fundamentally, but all Dems carry the Florida 2000 scar. Jesus, winner take all EC pisses me off.

[Gustaf]

Florida is hardly the pivotal state today (even though it was in 2000). It's been clearly on the Republican side of the average in the last 2 elections and I'd expect that to be true this election as well.

[Boris]

The only time post-civil rights act that FL has been more (D) than the national average was 1976

[Ty440]

The only time post-civil rights act that FL has been more (D) than the national average was 1976

In large part because of a  southern good old boy, from a neighboring state was at the top of the ticket.

[scoopa]

Florida is hardly the pivotal state today (even though it was in 2000). It's been clearly on the Republican side of the average in the last 2 elections and I'd expect that to be true this election as well.

Me too.

I also doubt that the Puerto Rican turnout will be at the same level of 2008. Not nearly the same level of enthusiasm.