+Pennsylvania is not trending Republican.
Just look at the map.
The "T" is becoming even more solidly Republican.
The Democrats are losing ground in their traditional strongholds in the south-west and West. The Pittsburgh area itself is definatly trending Republican. While Republicans are losing ground in some areas around Philly, it isn't enough to off-set the trend in the rest of the state. Slowly, but surely, we are trending red (or blue in Atlas terms).
I don't think you understand the power of the Philadelphia area in terms of voting. You also have to consider New York/North Jersey residents moving into Northeast Pennsylvania. They are largely Democratic. PA is a push. I don't see a significant trend.
Philly was at it's peak this past election. Bush only lost PA by about 2 points.
So let's look at it this way...
2000 - Philly wasn't at it's peak. Gore wins by about 5 points.
2004 - Philly is at it's peak. Kerry wins by about 2 points.
You, my friend, are underestimating the T and other areas of the state.
And where are the facts that show people from NY and NJ moving to the NE? I think you have it backwards. People from the NE are moving to NY and NJ.
