Minnesota is not trending populist.
We are trending moderate.
When I say that, I mean that the rural farming areas which partially drove the progressive moment are becoming more socially moderate faster than they are economically - this is the case in many former progressive areas. The trend overall is towards moderation, with social issues going there faster in my eyes. However, I consider you the official expert on all things Minnesota here, so I'll cede to your knowledge on this topic.
I have to agree with Akno personally. The fact is, much of this is moot and all depends on the candidate. The fact is that while it is clear there are some slow trends, trends rarely come into play. Most states barely move an inch in 20 years, and even if they do, it accounts for just two percentage points or so at the most. Without a candidate to appeal there it's hard to tell.
This is just a casual observation that I get based on the demographics of an area. It's hard to do an individual state. However, you can assume that rural Iowa and rural Minnesota are trending at least somewhat similarly.
Philip, to claim that Nevada isn't trending Democrat is sort of ridiculous. As Las Vegas grows, the state gets more liberal, period. I've heard a lot about "suburban" sprawl, but unless the Democratic margin in Clark County starts shrinking, it will only help us.
Colorado is hard to tell, as is Virginia, although it is clear the northern suburbs are trending Democratic. Florida may not be trending Republican - it may be a blip.
The fact is, unless elections were held yearly, it's really not possible to tell trends unless there is major population growth in a Democratic area, as there was in Nevada.
Also, most trends are over by the time they are apparent.
