How are these swing states trending?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Parts of PA are trending Dem, parts are trending Republican, the net result is a wash.

Minnesota was trending Republican but it's mostly likely peaked and will probably shift back from now with all the minorities coming in.

as for the rest:

Ohio-D
Wisconsin-push
Michigan-R, but will probably peak soon
Nevada-D
Arizona-slowly D
New Mexico-D
Colorado-D
Florida-was D, but it's probably peaked
Iowa-push
New Hampshire-D
Missouri-R
Virginia-D
West Virginia-R

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Look at Fairfax county (even in 1996) and say that.

Not to mention in 2000 Gore won the PV by about a half point and Bush won the PV by about 3 points this time. Compare to the national average that is a significant trend.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Look at Fairfax county (even in 1996) and say that.

Besides, it sure as hell isn't trending Republican.

I think you said the state as a whole. Now answer my question: How is a one point swing indicating a trend for the state?

I explained the national average deal, but even that's not needed. Even if you use the raw numbers, that's still a 1 point trend, and the question was which way were the states trending. Even if it's only a 1 point trend, it's obviously not trending Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As for Pennsylvania, it'll remain a swing state for a long time. Can everyone agree on that?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I didn't say it was trending either way in that statement, I said it would remain a swing state.

I also think raw numbers are pointless, you have to compare to the national average. Unless you think Vermont and Calfornia magically turned as Democratic as they are now in only 4 years from '88-'92.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The national average is irrelevant. If MORE PEOPLE in the state vote REPUBLICAN, the state is NOT moving Democrat. It is moving LESS REPUBLICAN than the national average.

then what happened in Vermont and California between 88 and 92?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

and what happened in Vermont? That was the 2nd time in history it had ever voted Democrat, and it's been easily won by the Democrat in every following election. Did it just magically turn from a solidly Republican state to a solidly Democratic one overnight?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No one has yet to explain how Vermont magically turned from a state that only voted for a Democrat once in history to a solidly Democratic state in only 4 years.