The ticket would probably be McCain-Giuliani or McCain-Pataki. Gore doesn't get the same support from Republicams after 9-11 that Bush got from Democrats and refuses to go into Iraq. McCain and the GOP paint Gore as weak on national security and Iraq. That, complained with fatigue from 12 years of Democratic rule and a slow economy lead to McCain narrowly triumphing over Gore in 2004.
McCain-Pataki 322 51.8%Gore-Lieberman 216 48.3%McCains maverick stances on immigration and education and being from Arizona helps him among Hispanics in New Mexico, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada. His moderate stances and blue collar New York Governor George Pataki also helps him in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Maine 2.
McCain takes us into Iraq in 2005 but handles it better than Bush did. He is relatively popular until the economy falls into recession in 2007 and he doesn't know how to fix it. The Iraq sentiment then turns negative after failure to find Sadam Hussein He then begins to give off the image of being out of touch (much in the way of Bush I in 1991.) The 2008 Democratic primaries include everyone as IRL, but without the affair Edwards makes it farther in the primaries and makes it a Three-Way Race. Edwards drops out in may or June and endorses Obama in exchange for the VP spot.
McCain-Pataki 144 46.2%Obama-Edwards 394 52.7%Obama runs on a message of Hope and Change, against the War in Iraq and for help for the middle class. He appeals to the same groups he did IRL, but the presence of a white-male southerner on the ticket (Edwards) helps him in Georgia, Missouri, and Montana.