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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Coolface's deceased great-granduncle, Apocrypha)
  How Does RFK do in 1968, based on his presence on 1964 ticket
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Author Topic: How Does RFK do in 1968, based on his presence on 1964 ticket  (Read 3512 times)
heatmaster
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« on: November 06, 2011, 08:06:53 am »

How would RFK do at the end of JFK's second term, he would have been JFK's second Vice President, and would be the presumptive Democratic nominee, a nd he might select Senator George Smathers of Florida or maybe former North Carolina Governor and now Senator Terry Sandford, to counteract Nixon's choice of Agnew and with Wallace's presence. I have a map, but you are all welcome to come up with equally plausible outcomes or scenarios.

The EV is 285 for Kennedy-Smathers to 208 for Nixon-Agnew to 45 for Wallace-LeMay
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Thomas D
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2011, 08:44:13 am »



RFK- 246
Nixon- 239
Wallace- 53
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heatmaster
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2011, 09:11:18 am »

I think Kennedy-Smathers pulls it out with 272 to Rockefeller-Agnew which garners 221. Rockefeller makes a better claim in Miami Beach that he stands a better chance than Nixon against Kennedy, as the former Vice President already lost to JFK and RFK would be tougher to beat. Nixon claims that apart from being Governor of New York and Goldwater's running mate in 1964, he also lost to the Kennedy'sHowever Rockefeller apart from his Divorce and remarriage, comes across as a more happier and presentable face of the GOP where as Nixon is seen as angry and a two-time loser already. So Rocky wins the nod.
Here's my new map.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2011, 10:31:52 am »

in 1972, Nixon tried to make the come-back, but was unable to persuade voters, that RFK was a failure, there had been an 'honorable' withdrawal from Vietnam along the lines which Nixon achieved in RL. Kennedy had placed Henry Cabot Lodge in the cabinet as Secretary of State at the behest of JFK always the pragmatist, Henry Kissinger who had been Rockefeller's foreign policy adviser, had become NSC adviser as in RL and Clark Clifford was Secretary of Defense. Here's my map for the 1972 election.

307 for Kennedy-Smathers to 231 for Nixon-Bellmon. There were 26 states & DC for RFKto 24 for Nixon-Bellmon.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2011, 10:53:36 am »

By 1976, after 16 years of Democratic control of the White House, Republicans settled on Ronald Reagan who's career trajectory was the same as in RL. However there was no schism within the GOP in 1976 as in RL, Reagan selects George Bush to run with him the 1976 map is similar to that of 1972, though Reagan does better than Nixon did four years before. Discuss with maps, here is mine.
Reagan-Bush wins 42 states with 429 to 109 for Smathers-Mondale who won 8 states & DC.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2011, 11:17:00 am »

in 1980. Edward Kennedy is the third Kennedy to seek the presidency, but unfortunately he faces a popular Ronald Reagan, who wins an even bigger victory in this election, Reagan wins 462 to 76 for Kennedy.
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Cath
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2011, 11:23:10 am »

Do you plan on doing a full-out timeline?
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hcallega
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2011, 12:07:49 pm »

Not to be a Negative Nancy, but there is just about a 0% chance that John F. Kennedy would select his brother to be his running-mate. There are several reasons why. First of all, it would severely hurt his chances at reelection due to nepotism. Second, it would frustrate Southern Democrats who wanted Johnson on the ticket. Third, and most importantly, there was simply no need to do it. It would be like Bill Clinton running with Hillary. Bobby was always going to be Jack's closest confidant and adviser. No need to stir the political waters. If Jack had survived, he probably would have kept LBJ on the ticket and won reelection easily. At that point, he appoints Dean Rusk to the UN job to replace an ailing Adlai Stevenson, promotes McNamara to State, and then moves Bobby to the DOD job. Katzenbach becomes Attorney General. Bobby then runs for a Massachusetts or New York position sometime in the late '60s or early '70s, and runs for President later (presumably).
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heatmaster
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2011, 01:32:59 pm »

So does LBJ get the nod in 1968, anyway I am responding to previous proposition that LBJ died on March 3 1964, so if he does, who does JFK offer the vice-presidency to? if not RFK, who? Terry Sanford of North Carolina or George Smathers of Florida?
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Cath
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2011, 01:39:41 pm »

So does LBJ get the nod in 1968, anyway I am responding to previous proposition that LBJ died on March 3 1964, so if he does, who does JFK offer the vice-presidency to? if not RFK, who? Terry Sanford of North Carolina or George Smathers of Florida?

Those are usually the accepted LBJ replacements. I go with Sanford just because of Smathers' affairs and thus, being too much like Jack. It might be too much to put two people on the same ticket, both of which could risk the affairs somehow being leaked.
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hcallega
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2011, 03:12:46 pm »

So does LBJ get the nod in 1968, anyway I am responding to previous proposition that LBJ died on March 3 1964, so if he does, who does JFK offer the vice-presidency to? if not RFK, who? Terry Sanford of North Carolina or George Smathers of Florida?

Those are usually the accepted LBJ replacements. I go with Sanford just because of Smathers' affairs and thus, being too much like Jack. It might be too much to put two people on the same ticket, both of which could risk the affairs somehow being leaked.

It could really go either way. Smathers was one of Kennedy's best friends when he was in the Senate. His affairs wouldn't really be a turnoff to Jack, as the media didn't report on politicians personal lives at the time. Even if they did, LBJ was an adulterer as well. Smathers was also sufficiently conservative to woo Southerners. Sanford was viewed as somewhat of a traitor to the South due to his liberal civil rights views. But according to JFK's secretary, Sanford was going to be chosen over LBJ in 1964 anyway. I doubt that he would have gone through with it, but if LBJ's dead, then he might be the one.

If Sanford is Jack's runningmate, then he's the frontrunner in '68 and probably wins the nomination. He has a good chance at winning in November, unless the Republicans nominate someone like Rockefeller who had appeal across the political board. Smathers would be challenged by HHH, splitting the party along regional lines. If that happens, Humphrey probably wins the nomination but loses in November due to a Wallace candidacy.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2011, 04:34:13 pm »

Okay let's ay it is Sanford in '64 as JFK new veep choice, maybe he does a deal with JFK that he is on the ticket in '64 and gets the nomination with JFK support in '68 and picks RFK to run with him. I say a likely scenarion in this hypothesis, is that RFK stays in the administration, succeeds McNamara at the Pentagon, or goes for the Senate seat from New York in '64 as in RL. has a base and Sanford who sticks to his part of the bargain, putting RFK on the ticket in '68. I think George Smathers would have neutralized Wallace's appeal in the South, the GOP would have gone for Rocky as it would have been his turn, he was a better bet than Nixon who was still seen in 1968 as a two-time loser. I think Rocky would have gone with Spiro Agnew to dent any of Wallace's appeal.  So my bet is Smathers-Kennedy, Rockefeller-Agnew and Wallace-LeMay
This is the 1964 map, followed by the 1968 map. Kennedy-Smathers wins 401 to 137 for Goldwater-Rockefeller
Then the 1968 map, is as follows
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heatmaster
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2011, 04:37:17 pm »

The electoral map for 1968 was 276 for Smathers-Kennedy and 217 for Rockefeller-Agnew and 45 for Wallace-LeMay
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heatmaster
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2011, 04:50:58 pm »

There is another scenario, the battle for the 1964 GOP nomination is the same as in RL, Goldwater offers the VP to Rocky who declines and Bill Miller gets the nod. In Atlantic City, JFK is renominated by acclamation and decides to go with George Smathers whom he believes has the same kind of appeal as LBJ but sells better in the south. This is my map.
Remember JFK doesn't have the halo effect that the martyrdom of a slain president that was bestowed on LBJ, JFK won 477 EV with 40 states to 61 for Goldwater who won 10 states, a bit better than the RL 6 states
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heatmaster
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2011, 04:55:15 pm »

By the way does anyone have a red kentucky map, I have seen plenty of blue ones, you know those map icons, you see on the border of the posts being submitted, any Delaware red or blue map icons, how do I get them?
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Thomas D
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2011, 05:31:17 pm »

By the way does anyone have a red kentucky map, I have seen plenty of blue ones, you know those map icons, you see on the border of the posts being submitted, any Delaware red or blue map icons, how do I get them?

Click on the "Profile" button on near the top of the screen.
Then click "Froum Profile Information" on the left of the screen.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2011, 06:08:23 pm »

Thanks for that information
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heatmaster
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« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2011, 06:47:33 am »
« Edited: November 08, 2011, 06:49:23 am by heatmaster »

In this scenario, Terry Sanford is just completing his four year stint as JFK's second V.P. Robert Kennedyas mentioned in another submission, serves as Secretary of Defense during his brother's second term and was toying with the idea of challenging Jacob Javits for the Senate from New York in '68. But withNixon emerging from the political wilderness to reclaim the GOP nomination and successfully persuading Rockefeller to run with him, he shy's away from selecting Agnew as there are rumors circulating that Agnew[/color has been taking bribes. with the Nixon-Rockefeller ticket in place, Sanford with JFK's support easily wins the Democratic presidential nomination. A week or two before the DNC in Chicago, RFK is informed by the president that he and Sanford made a deal in 1964, in exchange for the VP slot, that Sanford would select RFK to run with him in '68. RFK initially resists, saying he has political plans of his own, possibly the Governorship of Massachusetts in 1970, or challenge Kenneth Keating for the Senate in New York. The electoral map is as follows 297 for Nixon-Rockefeller, 188 for Sanford-Kennedy and 53 for Wallace-LeMay.

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heatmaster
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« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2011, 07:03:46 am »

In this scenario, Sanford-Kennedy do slightly better bringing in 214 EV while Nixon-Rockefeller only garner 285 and Wallace-LeMay garner 39 EV.

285 EV Nixon-Rockefeller
214 EV Sanford-Kennedy
39 EV Wallace-LeMay
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heatmaster
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« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2011, 07:26:38 am »

in 1970, while the Nixon-Rockefeller administration has some successes in the field of foreign policy. The Vietnamization process, begun in 1965 by JFKis bearing fruit and RFK is able to claim credit for this success as well, he challenges John Volpe for the Governorship of Massachusetts and wins a sizeable victory, while Edward Kennedy wins another term in the U.S. Senate.  JFK is writing his memoirs and Democratic leaders in the Bay state, approach the former President in the fall of 1971, with the idea of challenging Leverett Saltonstall for the Senate seat in 1972, JFK still only 54, misses the 'juice' and want's once again to lend his voice to the political debate. JFK returns to the Senate as a result of the 1972 election. Meanwhile The Democrats have a free for all in the contest for the 1972 Democratic presidential nomination, but Senator Henry Jackson of Washington, beats out Humphrey, McGovern and Muskie. Ever the pragmatist and at the urging of his old friendJFK, the Washington State lawmaker plumps for Muskie. Nixon and Rockefeller are renominated for second terms at RNC in
Mami Beach.

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heatmaster
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« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2011, 07:30:23 am »

Nixon slaughters Jackson and the EV stands at 484 for Nixon-Agnewand 54 for Jackson-Muskie. The breakdown was 44 states to 6
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heatmaster
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« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2011, 07:53:05 am »

The second term for Nixon was a mixed bag, and the 1974 mid-terms are the same as in real-life. With 1he 1976 election fast approaching, Rockefeller like Nixon in 1960, faces the likeliehood he will face a Kennedy and fresh from a landslide victory in the 1974 contest for the Massachusetts Governorship. Kennedy throws his hat into the ring and wins enough contests to claim the party's mantle to face Rockefeller, who has been facing difficulties from the right-wing, in the form of former Governor of California, Ronald Reagan, Rockefeller selects Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee, while Kennedy goes for another southerner, in the guise of Senator Dale Bumpers of Arkansas.  This is what I think the 1976 map would look like. 288 for Kennedy-Bumpers and 250 for Rockefeller-Baker. Bumpers helps Bobby in the border and some southern states. While Kennedy does well better in New England than Carter did in RL.

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heatmaster
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« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2011, 08:08:52 am »

with Robert Francis Kennedy becoming America's 37th President on January 20th, 1977, he has placed JFK in at the State Deparment as Secretary of State. Events pretty much occur for the Kennedy administration as it did in RL for Carter. By 1980, Reagan is able to claim the nomination and selects George Bush. The Kennedy-Bumpersticket is renominated in New York City. Reagan pretty much runs the same type of campaign against RFK as he did against Carter in RL.
This is the 1980 election map, though RFK prevents the loss from being larger as he is a better campaigner. The result was 469 for Reagan-Bush to 69 for Kennedy-Bumpers
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heatmaster
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« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2011, 11:35:57 am »
« Edited: November 08, 2011, 11:37:37 am by heatmaster »

in 1984 Reagan-Bush slaughter the Democratic standard bearer, Senator George McGovern of South Dakota, with 531 EV to 7 for McGovern Here's the map, where Reagan wins close to 62%.
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