Dems: Did you really think Kerry would win?

[MasterJedi]

Yes, mainly because his opponent was Bush. I misunderestimated the stupidity of the American populace, perhaps. Then again, only 60% voted, so that's a bit unfair.

Not a very nice comment, hugh.  Very elitist.

^^^^^

[Nym90]

Yes, I thought that he would. I tend to be an optimist, though.

[Soaring Eagle]

I honestly did up until Election Night. Then I realized Ohio would vote for Bush and send him back to the White House. But I'm the world's biggest optimist.

[7,052,770]

I knew he would all along.  My elation peaked when I saw the exit poll numbers, only to have it all crash down as the night wore on.

[jerusalemcar5]

I thought so until they called West Virginia.  Then I was like sh*t.  Then he lost Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee and I was like oh hell no.  i was having an election party with my liberal friends and none of us had heard exit polls so we assumed it was still close, but it was still very sad.  My hopes picked up when FOX was the first to declare a Kerry win in New Hampshire, which Gore hadn't won and the fact that Kerry was leading late in Nevada.  Then NBC called Ohio.  And I was frantically searching the other networks for answers, but they hadn't called Ohio and so I went to bed since it was late and I was depressed as hell assuming a Bush victory.  Almost didn't make it to school on Wednesday I was so dejected.  Then I heard Kerry still had a chance in Ohio, except in my Computer class I saw on CNN.com that Kerry was going to decide.  And finally I decided Kerry wouldn't win.  So there's my election story.

[Sam Spade]

It's funny, I suppose, that this poll is going a lot differently than the comments, so I'll be one of the few to be honest.

I did. I did on November 2nd. I did thanks to the exit polls, thanks to Tradesports. And people put their money where their mouth is - Tradesports clearly showed that I wasn't the only one fooled.

I did not on November 1st. I thought we were going to lose it unless we were going to be amazed by some sort of movement we never realized. A lot of Republicans said pollsters were significantly underestimating the GOP GOTV machine. They weren't. In the end, the polls were pretty much right. Bush would win solidly, but not hugely.

My general feeling was that Kerry could win, but not necessarily. I never thought that a Kerry win was certain. At some points, when Kerry was up nationally by a good margin, I thought he was in good shape.

Was I ever convinced Kerry would win? No way. Did I ever thing Kerry had the advantage? Absolutely.

And like anyone, no matter how much they talked, I was not certain who won until shortly after 7 PM PST.

Actually, I was one of the people who thought about 3PM in the afternoon, when Bush tanked on Tradesports that I should wager about $100 on him, remembering that the exit polls also screwed up bigtime in 2000 and could well do so again (Florida didn't look right, per my conversations with Vorlon).  Didn't do it.  Should've, could've....

Anyway, I thought most of the time that Kerry could win, not would.  I thought that Bush would win, had he put in a great performance in the 1st debate, but that didn't happen.  The Republican base was riled up all along, the Democrats not necessarily.  As Vorlon said, a +5% Republican lead could turn into +10% based on some of the turnout models.  But Bush blew the 1st debate and that never materialized.

The time when I became convinced Kerry would lose was about 9 PM (EST), when the Florida results became obvious through examining county totals.  Then I started to examine Ohio's and the numbers from Cuyahoga were not simply enough to pull through.  It was over then.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In my prediction right before election day, I got only one state wrong. However, that was the critical state of Ohio.

[Nym90]

In my prediction right before election day, I got only one state wrong. However, that was the critical state of Ohio.

Same here, as can be seen with the link to my prediction maps under my avatar. I did think Ohio would go for Kerry due to the poor economy there; otherwise I got the other 50 states right.

[MasterJedi]

I thought so until they called West Virginia.  Then I was like sh*t.  Then he lost Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee and I was like oh hell no.  i was having an election party with my liberal friends and none of us had heard exit polls so we assumed it was still close, but it was still very sad.  My hopes picked up when FOX was the first to declare a Kerry win in New Hampshire, which Gore hadn't won and the fact that Kerry was leading late in Nevada.  Then NBC called Ohio.  And I was frantically searching the other networks for answers, but they hadn't called Ohio and so I went to bed since it was late and I was depressed as hell assuming a Bush victory.  Almost didn't make it to school on Wednesday I was so dejected.  Then I heard Kerry still had a chance in Ohio, except in my Computer class I saw on CNN.com that Kerry was going to decide.  And finally I decided Kerry wouldn't win.  So there's my election story.

You actually though Kerry was going to win West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee? Haha, what an idiot.

[Reignman]

I guess. I dunno, 50/50. I always figured it'd be close (shocking, huh?)

[jerusalemcar5]

I thought so until they called West Virginia.  Then I was like sh*t.  Then he lost Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee and I was like oh hell no.  i was having an election party with my liberal friends and none of us had heard exit polls so we assumed it was still close, but it was still very sad.  My hopes picked up when FOX was the first to declare a Kerry win in New Hampshire, which Gore hadn't won and the fact that Kerry was leading late in Nevada.  Then NBC called Ohio.  And I was frantically searching the other networks for answers, but they hadn't called Ohio and so I went to bed since it was late and I was depressed as hell assuming a Bush victory.  Almost didn't make it to school on Wednesday I was so dejected.  Then I heard Kerry still had a chance in Ohio, except in my Computer class I saw on CNN.com that Kerry was going to decide.  And finally I decided Kerry wouldn't win.  So there's my election story.

You actually though Kerry was going to win West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee? Haha, what an idiot.

I didn't follow any state by state polls at the time leading up.

But really, I thought he might pick up one, but the real issue was how quickly they were called.

[MasterJedi]

I thought so until they called West Virginia.  Then I was like sh*t.  Then he lost Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee and I was like oh hell no.  i was having an election party with my liberal friends and none of us had heard exit polls so we assumed it was still close, but it was still very sad.  My hopes picked up when FOX was the first to declare a Kerry win in New Hampshire, which Gore hadn't won and the fact that Kerry was leading late in Nevada.  Then NBC called Ohio.  And I was frantically searching the other networks for answers, but they hadn't called Ohio and so I went to bed since it was late and I was depressed as hell assuming a Bush victory.  Almost didn't make it to school on Wednesday I was so dejected.  Then I heard Kerry still had a chance in Ohio, except in my Computer class I saw on CNN.com that Kerry was going to decide.  And finally I decided Kerry wouldn't win.  So there's my election story.

You actually though Kerry was going to win West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee? Haha, what an idiot.

I didn't follow any state by state polls at the time leading up.

But really, I thought he might pick up one, but the real issue was how quickly they were called.

Yes, if you were surprised by that you obviously didn't pay that much attention throughout the whole election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This was my prediction about 4 hours before returns came in.

Kerry - 289
Bush - 249

FYI This was my prediction in 2000

Gore - 287
Bush - 251

[Platypus]

Yes, mainly because his opponent was Bush. I misunderestimated the stupidity of the American populace, perhaps. Then again, only 60% voted, so that's a bit unfair.

Not a very nice comment, hugh.  Very elitist.

I stand by that. Americans did something really, really stupid, or at least 60% of them did.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, mainly because his opponent was Bush. I misunderestimated the stupidity of the American populace, perhaps. Then again, only 60% voted, so that's a bit unfair.

Not a very nice comment, hugh.  Very elitist.

I stand by that. Americans did something really, really stupid, or at least 60% of them did.

I love that, criticise the wisdom of voting for Bush... it's elitist. Criticise the wisdom of voting for Kerry or Gore or Clinton... it's perfectly understandable.

[Rob]

I stand by that. Americans did something really, really stupid, or at least 60% of them did.

100 percent of voters chose Bush?

[Jake]

I stand by that. Americans did something really, really stupid, or at least 60% of them did.

Using your poor logic, 30% of Americans did something really, really stupid.

[Platypus]

fair enough. Although I could expand it to meaning everyone who took part in the farce that was the 2004 election

[Reaganfan]

I wish I still had the file of the "Mike Naso Show" from November 1, 2004 when I made my predictions. I remember I said:

- Kerry will win Pennsylvania
- Bush will win Florida
- Bush will win Ohio

Everyone kept saying that "Ohio's bad economy will swing the state to Kerry." I was like, I live here...it's clearly for Bush. That's why I'm beginning to doubt the naysayers who say that Ohio will "almost certainly go to the Democrats in 2008".

[Gabu]

I wish I still had the file of the "Mike Naso Show" from November 1, 2004 when I made my predictions. I remember I said:

- Kerry will win Pennsylvania
- Bush will win Florida
- Bush will win Ohio

Everyone kept saying that "Ohio's bad economy will swing the state to Kerry." I was like, I live here...it's clearly for Bush. That's why I'm beginning to doubt the naysayers who say that Ohio will "almost certainly go to the Democrats in 2008".

Didn't you predict that Ken Blackwell would win?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I always knew Bush would win - I was never in any doubt.

[Padfoot]

I wish I still had the file of the "Mike Naso Show" from November 1, 2004 when I made my predictions. I remember I said:

- Kerry will win Pennsylvania
- Bush will win Florida
- Bush will win Ohio

Everyone kept saying that "Ohio's bad economy will swing the state to Kerry." I was like, I live here...it's clearly for Bush. That's why I'm beginning to doubt the naysayers who say that Ohio will "almost certainly go to the Democrats in 2008".

Ohio in 2008 should be interesting since there are no statewide offices up that year.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say the result will be heavily dependent on Strickland's approval rating during the election even though he won't be on the ballot.

[Phony Moderate]

I thought so until they called West Virginia.  Then I was like sh*t.  Then he lost Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee and I was like oh hell no.  i was having an election party with my liberal friends and none of us had heard exit polls so we assumed it was still close, but it was still very sad.  My hopes picked up when FOX was the first to declare a Kerry win in New Hampshire, which Gore hadn't won and the fact that Kerry was leading late in Nevada.  Then NBC called Ohio.  And I was frantically searching the other networks for answers, but they hadn't called Ohio and so I went to bed since it was late and I was depressed as hell assuming a Bush victory.  Almost didn't make it to school on Wednesday I was so dejected.  Then I heard Kerry still had a chance in Ohio, except in my Computer class I saw on CNN.com that Kerry was going to decide.  And finally I decided Kerry wouldn't win.  So there's my election story.

You actually though Kerry was going to win West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee? Haha, what an idiot.

You're very nice, aren't you?

[Bo]

For a time, Yes, because my parents thought that he would win (I was 12 at the time).

[pbrower2a]

I thought that John Kerry would win... until just before I went to vote, I flipped through the channels and found some televangelist telling his audience to vote "as if your salvation depends on how you vote". Then I came to the conclusion that people being raped economically could vote in favor of the puppet (Dubya) of those raping them.

America still has voters who fall for that pitch; not so many any more.