California vs. Utah
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  California vs. Utah
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Poll
Question: What will happen first?
#1
California votes Republican in a PE.
#2
Utah votes Democratic in a PE.
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Partisan results


Author Topic: California vs. Utah  (Read 3360 times)
Duke David
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« on: October 27, 2011, 07:40:20 AM »
« edited: October 27, 2011, 05:28:50 PM by Kamelfuß »

Click and discuss.

Update:
Maybe the Californians would vote Republican and the Utahns Democratic if Fred Karger were on the Republican ticket. What do you think?
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Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2011, 10:22:19 AM »

If the Cook PVI is to be given any credence, California is D+7, Utah is R+20.  It seems it would take a much smaller popular swell to move CA into the R column than Utah into the D column.
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Franzl
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2011, 10:40:14 AM »

I'll say Utah actually. I imagine them to be more volatile and dependent on particular candidates. California is much more based on party. But if an anti-Mormon got the GOP nomination...
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2011, 12:10:21 PM »

Utah. Mormons will probably be less prominant at one point before California votes R.

But don't neccesarily rule CA out, as they have the most liberal Democratic Party and the most conservative Republican Party.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2011, 01:26:45 PM »

But don't neccesarily rule CA out, as they have the most liberal Democratic Party and the most conservative Republican Party.

And how has that been working out for them? They've dropped to less than 1/3 of registered voters in the state and Democrats may finally get a 2/3 supermajority in both houses of the state legislature (necessary to raise taxes in California because of Prop 13) in 2012: http://www.sacbee.com/2011/09/07/3889550/california-gop-not-the-party-it.html

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I vote Utah as religion is going to decline and Mormonism is the main reason Utah is so Republican: http://www.gallup.com/poll/125021/mormons-conservative-major-religious-group.aspx

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Duke David
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2011, 05:44:41 PM »


I almost got choked when I saw your diagrams;
religious behavior diverges so much in Germany and in the US.

The most conservative religious group by far are the Muslims.
The German Jews are much more conservative, too.

The German (and European) Catholics, at least in South Germany, uphold their reputation as devout churchgoers - the Bavarians were (?) the only people that rejected civil unions -,
whereas the Protestants, who mainly live in the north and in the east, are considered very progressive and liberal.

Religious groups seem to be very heterogeneous on a global scale.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2011, 11:18:37 PM »

I think the political landscape will become less polarized in the not-too-distant future, but I don't see Utah going Dem anytime soon.

California will go Republican if the Republican nominee is socially moderate/liberal and has an economic policy that is more balanced and coherent than "MOAR TAX CUTZZZ!!"
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LastVoter
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2011, 04:22:58 AM »

Utah. I don't see how could it even be a question. California becomes more Hispanic, so they won't be becoming less dem anytime soon, until GOP changes a lot of it's fiscal positions and immigration positions. Utah is getting Californicated though.
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FloridaRepublican
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2011, 07:48:41 AM »

California going Republican. Utah isn't voting for a Democrat unless something groundbreaking happens.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2011, 04:53:38 PM »

I'd actually wager that Utah would be definitely voting Democratic in 20 years.
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5280
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2011, 11:32:32 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2011, 11:37:20 PM by MagneticFree »

I'd actually wager that Utah would be definitely voting Democratic in 20 years.
And Wisconsin will vote Republican in 20 years.  What becomes Democrat in certain areas of the US, others turn Republican. The entire US is not going to trend Democrat or Republican, there is a balance that has to be acheived so this country doesn't get worse than it's already.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2011, 04:35:38 AM »

I'd actually wager that Utah would be definitely voting Democratic in 20 years.
And Wisconsin will vote Republican in 20 years.  What becomes Democrat in certain areas of the US, others turn Republican. The entire US is not going to trend Democrat or Republican, there is a balance that has to be acheived so this country doesn't get worse than it's already.
Probably. Wisconsin has been trending that way for at least 20 years already. I would say more areas will become democratic because of the demographic change trainwreck for the Republican party. There won't be a balance for 10-20 years until Republican party implodes/radically shifts into something else, since it most likely won't be able to keep with the voters beforehand.
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