New Census Estimates for the States

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, it must be noted that the trends can change over the next five plus years, but probably won't change much if any.

Second, of at least equal importance is the changes WITHIN states.

As I previously noted, in another thread, in California (to take one example) areas which actually lost population were highly likely to vote for Kerry, while areas which grew the fastest were highly likely to vote for Bush.

In Illinois, the areas gaining population at the fastest rate overwhelming likely to vote for Bush.

[CARLHAYDEN]

What appears to be happening is that people who are improving their lives are moving to the suburbs and exurbs from areas which were heavily Democrat.

In their previous area (in many instances) their only relevant vote was in the Democrat primary,

Once they moved, they would vote Republicans and actually see that candidate (in local elections) elected.

Also, the Democrat activists in the heavily growing areas tend to be loony lefties, which turn off the newly arrived inhabitants, who had previously been Democrats at their own residence.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Now let me see,

                    Republican Percentage of Presidential Vote

                                   Year

State          1992     1996     2000     2004     1992-2004

Colorado     35.87    45.80    50.75    51.71    +15.84

Florida         40.89    42.32    48.85    52.10    +11.21

Nevada        34.73    42.91    49.52    50.47    +15.74

Yeah, I see what you mean.

     

[CARLHAYDEN]

Please tell Boss Tweed about how all the Perot voters would have voted for Bush or Dole.

Note, I posted the percentages which can be easily seen at Dave's Election Results sites.

Facts are stubborn things.

Some posters (hmm) seem unable to deal with facts.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Well Alcon, you again haven't seen the background to the post.

I previously had an exchange with BossTweed in which I pointed out that the Perot voters were NOT pro-Bush or Dole.

Please read the exchange between BossTweed and myself found on the Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion forum in the 2004 User Predictions - Discussion thread, pages 157 - 160.

To spell it out to you, I was sarcastically pointing out the absurdity of the posts by others.