Mexico 2012

[ag]

The countries are small individually, but the regions total population is about 1/3 of Mexicos, so it seems odd that you totally disregard them.

It's not like these countries are a coherent whole - they don't even have much impact on one another. Walk down the streets of San Jose and count the cars with non-Costa-Rican licence plates - you won't see many (I'd bet, not even one a day, unless you go by the embassies). They don't even have good roads to Panama (or, for that matter, Nicaragua).

Nor do they share much common interest. Costa Rica and Panama are fairly wealthy (no illegal migrants from that side) and almost self-sufficient. El Salvador is a peculiar US-Mexican "condominium" with  a notable business class and a bunch of leftwing Jesuits, but with god-awful crime and without education. Honduras is so incompetent, they can't even run a decent coup. Nicaragua is dirt poor, beligerent and impossible to deal with even if somebody cared to do so, while Belize is tiny and anglophone (there aren't even direct flights to Mexico City from the last two). The only one of these countries of non-transportaion consequence is Guatemala, but it is a feudal land of little economic interest.  

At least, Guatemala has some interesting culture - the rest have lost most of what they ever had. But, then, it's not as if you couldn't get similar stuff in Chiapas. A trip to Costa Rica could be reasonably exotic, but the others have near zero tourist potential for Mexicans. And they are hard to get to: for 650 dollars it costs to fly to El Salvador and back you can go to San Antonio almost 3 times.  

[Velasco]

Two days ago former Mexican president Vicente Fox (PAN) proclaimed his support for the PRI candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto. Obviously the PAN leadership is distressed.

Yesterday in The Guardian: "Computer files link TV dirty tricks to favourite for Mexico presidency"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/07/mexico-presidency-tv-dirty-tricks

In May the Mexican newspaper Reforma reported payments to journalists ("roughly $2.4 millions") from Peña Nieto.

http://knightcenter.utexas.edu/blog/00-10087-mexican-presidential-candidate-paid-millions-dollars-journalists-mentions-media

Business as usual?

[ag]

In just over 3 hours the second (and last) presidential debate begins. The latest Milenio tracker, so far:

Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI-PVEM) 45%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-MC) 29%
Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) 22%
Gabriel Quadri (PANAL) 4%

[ag]

The debate starts now. It will go for 135 minutes. Pretty much every Mexican paper has a stream. I am watching here:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html

[ag]

JVM is really going agains Lopez Obrador. She brought up him joining PRI in 1971 - the time of the worst repression and student massacres (the two big ones were in 1968 and 1971). Both she and Quadri attacked his credibility on fiscal numbers as well.

Quadri asked other candidates about abortion. Both Pena Nieto, and, remarkably, JVM said they are against criminalizing abortion (though she repeated that life begins at conception). AMLO ignored it (actually, he just said he agrees with decriminalizing). He also asked about same-sex marriage - all three have so far ignored it.

Quadri is, actually, once against the best. He just called for taking the controlling agency from the executive.

Lopez has just said he was too young in 1971 to know what he was doing - but she is somehow lying as well.

[ag]

Interestingly, JVM has the lowest voice of the four )

Now she is attacking EPN for spying on people. She is really on the attack. But she looks VERY tired.

[ag]

Quadri has just proposed a free-trade agreement with China )

[ag]

EPN has shown some table where Mexico is nearly last in AL in something. Pity he didn't say in what )

[ag]

Among Reforma subscribers (clearly, not an independent group ) ), so far JVM gets 4.8, EPN gets 3.4, AMLO 2.8 and Quadri 2.3. Very unfair to Quadri - he IS the best.

[ag]

AMLO is pledging to be FDR. Literally )

[ag]

JVM is saying she is fightin to PRI candidates: PRI and AMLO.

She doesn't seem to have any foreign policy other than appointing an undersecretary of foreign affairs for migrant affairs.

But, gosh, does she sound exhausted.

[ag]

Quadri proposes creating a Mexican version of the Goethe Institute (to be called Octavio Paz Institute) to promote Mexican culture abroad.

[ag]

EPN points out that it is PAN and PRD that go into alliances, not PRI and PRD.

[ag]

EPN is calling for North American integration.

[ag]

JVM really has no foreign policy. Pathetic.

[ag]

She is now attacking Quadri. "Every vote for you is a vote for a family - a very particular family".

JVM just lost big chunk of my good will: she is talking about "just commerce for the shoe industry". B-r-r-r. EPN was outright much better on this. She is really without foreign policy. bing SO unready on a preannounced topic - uff.

[ag]

As part of his foreign policy AMLO promises 100% university coverage in Mexico.

[ag]

Quadri is the only one to remember Central America exists.

Proposes "recovering CA", Mexican investments in the region,  and giving Central Americans the same rights as Mexicans in Mexico.

[ag]

Why, oh why has JVM been so bad on foreign policy.

[ag]

Quadri is proposing to prepare for Cuban transition to democracy, so that Mexican companies can benefit.

[ag]

Quadri wants to reopen Mexican embassy at UNESCO and build up Mexican culture offices (again).

He says Mexico has to use the closeness to the US and NAFTA to reindustrialize and compete (w/ free trade) w/ China. Actually, JVM could have said a lot about it - it's a major success of PAN governments - she blew it.

[ag]

AMLO says "free trade agreements are not a panacea". Production should be supported. B-r-r.  But he is saying it well.

[ag]

So far, honestly, it is, in my view Quadri>EPN=AMLO>JVM.

[ag]

JVM has proposed universal social security (including minimal pension from the age of 70).

[ag]

Somewhat better for her, now, but not well presented: she sounds like she is about to collapse.

Quadri is very much at ease. EPN is somewhat tense and rehearsed, but not too bad. AMLO bullsh**ts, but he is relaxed.