Obama can't win any of the three CDs in this state. He'll lose the state by 20% to most any Republican. Nelson is on the ropes as well, but we all knew that.
Eastern Nebraska (NE-01 and NE-02) is politically more like Iowa than like Wyoming. Central and western Nebraska (NE-03) is politically more like Wyoming than like Iowa. President Obama is going to lose NE-03 by roughly an 80-20 margin unless the Republicans nominate Charles Manson. But NE-01 and NE-02 are apparently competitive. Together they might be a 50-50 split under the best of reasonable circumstances. But average two 50-50 splits with one 80-20 split and you get a 60-40 split of the state at large. That is a 20% margin, which is more than by which President Obama lost the state in 2008.
Nebraska is not politically homogeneous. In 2008 (with a different set of districts), NE-01 voted much like Texas, NE-02 voted much like Indiana, and NE-03 voted much like Wyoming.
You are right about Nebraska at large (and I may be exaggerating NE-03), but for the wrong reasons. The Obama campaign seems likely to drop lots of money in the Omaha TV market just to reach western Iowa. That ad coverage will reach Greater Omaha. Ben Nelson is gaining, and if it seems that President Obama is winning, then he has a clear record that says that he will not be a rubberstamp for the President.
