Next BIG Swing State?
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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Next BIG Swing State?
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Poll
Question: What state has the potential to become the BIG state in 2008?
#1
Wisconsin
 
#2
Iowa
 
#3
New Mexico
 
#4
Nevada
 
#5
Pennsylvania
 
#6
Virginia
 
#7
Colorado
 
#8
Florida....again....
 
#9
Ohio....again....
 
#10
Other(Please state)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 85

Author Topic: Next BIG Swing State?  (Read 8782 times)
zorkpolitics
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« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2004, 06:06:05 PM »

Based on Bush's margin of victory this year, CO, FL, VA are likely safe for 2008.  IA, NM, NV are too smal to count as the big swing state.

So of the two big states left (PA and OH), Bush margin in OH decreased 1.5%, even though his nationwide margin increased 3%, thus if the trend continues OH will be even closer next time and will still the big swing state.

Bush did improve his marging in PA by 2%, but that still is less than his nationwide 3% gain, so its unlikley PA will be closer than OH in 2008.
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Alcon
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« Reply #26 on: December 22, 2004, 06:14:02 PM »

Based on Bush's margin of victory this year, CO, FL, VA are likely safe for 2008.  IA, NM, NV are too smal to count as the big swing state.
I think that Florida's vote was partially affected by the hurricane thing and Bush's reaction, which was handled quite well. If you were to "even out" the country (which I know you can't really do, but still), Bush would have won 50.87-48.32. If it was not for Bush's excellent handling of the hurricane situation, this could have been much closer. I think Florida remains a swing state, but with a tiny Republican tilt.

Colorado was a decent, but not huge win - 5.67 points. Adjusted for national average, this is 3.21. A Republican lean there, easily.

Virginia was, adjusting for national average, 5.74. If the Democrats win this in 2008, they won't need it. Bayh could probably carry it narrowly.

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The lack of linear trending of states is an important consideration in Ohio, a state pounded by job losses. Bush smartly made social issues the major vote. If Bayh is the 2008 nominee and the job market is still poor in Ohio, he will carry it fairly easily. If it is good, it will be a true fight, with a Bayh advantage. Other non-midwestern nominees would have a small advantage if there are major job losses, and have an uphill battle if there weren't.

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Kerry sucked profoundly in rural PA. A good midwestern populist like Bayh would do well in Pennsylvania, while any other candidate would make it a Democrat-advantage swing state.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #27 on: December 24, 2004, 03:40:10 PM »

Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state. And it's not trending Republican, it's just following the national average. Clinton > Gore > Kerry.

PA is VERY tricky.  While the Southeast is trending Democratic, western PA is trending Republican by the day.  A candidate between liberal and populist could win PA fairly easily; however, there is too much to factor in and georgaphic area are changing drastically.  Who would have ever thought in 1988 Westmoreland County would vote Republican and Montgomery vote Democrat?  The respective parties in both counties have virtually collapsed fom sheer dominance in the 1980s. Who knows what will happen.  From what I can tell locally, college students I know that live in Montgomery County, PA are VERY liberal.  I predict the Republicans are virtually screwed there for years to come.  Bucks and Delaware will follow suit in about 10 years.  The question now is will western PA become even more Republican to counter the SE trend?  I don't want to make this another PA-13 thread, but some of the NE Philly trends I didn't like either.  Bush increased his margin in some wards/precincts.  It wasn't much, but as a Dem, it has me somewhat nervous.  My ward lost about 300 votes from Gore to Kerry but gained over 1000 from Bush 2000 to 2004.  Granted Kerry smoked Bush here, but NE Philly could be another wildcard as well.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #28 on: December 24, 2004, 04:00:10 PM »

Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state. And it's not trending Republican, it's just following the national average. Clinton > Gore > Kerry.

PA is VERY tricky.  While the Southeast is trending Democratic, western PA is trending Republican by the day.  A candidate between liberal and populist could win PA fairly easily; however, there is too much to factor in and georgaphic area are changing drastically.  Who would have ever thought in 1988 Westmoreland County would vote Republican and Montgomery vote Democrat?  The respective parties in both counties have virtually collapsed fom sheer dominance in the 1980s. Who knows what will happen.  From what I can tell locally, college students I know that live in Montgomery County, PA are VERY liberal.  I predict the Republicans are virtually screwed there for years to come.  Bucks and Delaware will follow suit in about 10 years.  The question now is will western PA become even more Republican to counter the SE trend?  I don't want to make this another PA-13 thread, but some of the NE Philly trends I didn't like either.  Bush increased his margin in some wards/precincts.  It wasn't much, but as a Dem, it has me somewhat nervous.  My ward lost about 300 votes from Gore to Kerry but gained over 1000 from Bush 2000 to 2004.  Granted Kerry smoked Bush here, but NE Philly could be another wildcard as well.

Montco becomes more Dem, NE Philly becomes more Republican, western PA counties become more Republican....they just keep switching around.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #29 on: December 24, 2004, 09:10:42 PM »

Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state. And it's not trending Republican, it's just following the national average. Clinton > Gore > Kerry.

PA is VERY tricky.  While the Southeast is trending Democratic, western PA is trending Republican by the day.  A candidate between liberal and populist could win PA fairly easily; however, there is too much to factor in and georgaphic area are changing drastically.  Who would have ever thought in 1988 Westmoreland County would vote Republican and Montgomery vote Democrat?  The respective parties in both counties have virtually collapsed fom sheer dominance in the 1980s. Who knows what will happen.  From what I can tell locally, college students I know that live in Montgomery County, PA are VERY liberal.  I predict the Republicans are virtually screwed there for years to come.  Bucks and Delaware will follow suit in about 10 years.  The question now is will western PA become even more Republican to counter the SE trend?  I don't want to make this another PA-13 thread, but some of the NE Philly trends I didn't like either.  Bush increased his margin in some wards/precincts.  It wasn't much, but as a Dem, it has me somewhat nervous.  My ward lost about 300 votes from Gore to Kerry but gained over 1000 from Bush 2000 to 2004.  Granted Kerry smoked Bush here, but NE Philly could be another wildcard as well.

Montco becomes more Dem, NE Philly becomes more Republican, western PA counties become more Republican....they just keep switching around.

I agree with the first and last statements.  NE Philly is erratic though.  We were solid Reagan in the 80s when western PA was solid Carter/Mondale.  However the coin has flipped and NE Philly voted overwhelmingly Democratic and all but Pittsburgh seems to be GOP engulfed out west. 

One thing is for sure I am surprised Schwartz did so well here for being such an extreme liberal people make her out to be.  I would think that would say something consdiering Brown split the vote in 2002.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #30 on: December 25, 2004, 01:25:36 AM »

Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state. And it's not trending Republican, it's just following the national average. Clinton > Gore > Kerry.

PA is VERY tricky.  While the Southeast is trending Democratic, western PA is trending Republican by the day.  A candidate between liberal and populist could win PA fairly easily; however, there is too much to factor in and georgaphic area are changing drastically.  Who would have ever thought in 1988 Westmoreland County would vote Republican and Montgomery vote Democrat?  The respective parties in both counties have virtually collapsed fom sheer dominance in the 1980s. Who knows what will happen.  From what I can tell locally, college students I know that live in Montgomery County, PA are VERY liberal.  I predict the Republicans are virtually screwed there for years to come.  Bucks and Delaware will follow suit in about 10 years.  The question now is will western PA become even more Republican to counter the SE trend?  I don't want to make this another PA-13 thread, but some of the NE Philly trends I didn't like either.  Bush increased his margin in some wards/precincts.  It wasn't much, but as a Dem, it has me somewhat nervous.  My ward lost about 300 votes from Gore to Kerry but gained over 1000 from Bush 2000 to 2004.  Granted Kerry smoked Bush here, but NE Philly could be another wildcard as well.

Montco becomes more Dem, NE Philly becomes more Republican, western PA counties become more Republican....they just keep switching around.

I agree with the first and last statements.  NE Philly is erratic though.  We were solid Reagan in the 80s when western PA was solid Carter/Mondale.  However the coin has flipped and NE Philly voted overwhelmingly Democratic and all but Pittsburgh seems to be GOP engulfed out west. 

One thing is for sure I am surprised Schwartz did so well here for being such an extreme liberal people make her out to be.  I would think that would say something consdiering Brown split the vote in 2002.

It won't be such a big margin in two years. I can guarentee that.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #31 on: December 25, 2004, 03:39:14 AM »

Colorado, if Richardson runs. Still Ohio.
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Akno21
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« Reply #32 on: December 25, 2004, 10:08:12 AM »


But not if Owens runs.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #33 on: December 25, 2004, 11:09:27 AM »

Different parts of PA flip around on a coin. Spilt tickets, freak turnouts, protest voting, single issue voting... Pennsylvania is the master of them all (I'm about to start an analysis of the State House elections. Usually very interesting).
Predicting swings for them is stupid, predicting long term trends is insane.

One reason is that most large counties in PA are fairly polarised (Westmoreland and Montgomery are good examples of this, BTW)
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Kevin
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« Reply #34 on: April 12, 2005, 07:08:16 PM »

if hillary does get the dem nomanation i dont think she would win PA
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MaC
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« Reply #35 on: April 12, 2005, 07:54:47 PM »

Michigan!

It's all coming home, baby.  Although it still voted Dem in the last four elections, it's still Clinton>Gore>Kerry, and might go GOP in 2008.  It also has a nice 17 electoral needed, so in the case of a close election, it can put one candidate over the top.
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Cashcow
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« Reply #36 on: April 12, 2005, 09:01:09 PM »

Michigan!

It's all coming home, baby.  Although it still voted Dem in the last four elections, it's still Clinton>Gore>Kerry, and might go GOP in 2008.

How about compared to the national average?

You seem a little enthusiatic to have Republicans winning Michigan - for a libertarian, that is.
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Smash255
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« Reply #37 on: April 12, 2005, 10:24:11 PM »

Colorodo I would say has a better chance of becoming the next big swing state than PA>  When looking at it you have to look at how the states compare to the Natl average.  PA has gotten closer in the last few elections, but has stayed in that 5% more Dem than the Natl average.  Colorado was about 2% more GOP than the Natl average last year.  In 2004 CO was closer to the Natl average than PA was
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A18
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« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2005, 02:28:53 PM »

Kerry won California by a million votes. He was a weak candidate and lost the general election by nearly 3%. Barring something major, that will be impossible for Republicans to overcome in the near future.

Large shifts like that happen all the time. Compare 1964 with 1968, or even 1984 with 1988.
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Cashcow
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« Reply #39 on: April 13, 2005, 02:32:37 PM »

OK, you're denying that California has moved left over the past 50 years.
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Hitchabrut
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« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2005, 02:51:14 PM »

PA.
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phk
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« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2005, 03:08:17 PM »

It depends on WHO RUNS.
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electcollfan
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« Reply #42 on: April 15, 2005, 01:39:18 PM »

I think Ohio (depending who runs)...FL is just moving more into the Republican column...many of the other states (WI, IA etc...) are important but don't have the number of electoral votes that OH or FL do. PA could be extremely close as well.
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