Which states do you see moving left or right over the next 20 years and why?

[greenforest32]

I think the majority of states will be moving left (not political party wise per se, but rather on issues) over the next 20 years due to minority population growth and social conservatism/religion dying down a bit. I think it's going to be particularly noticeable in the Southwest.

You can already see the change in California where the California Republican party makes up an increasingly smaller super-minority (both in voter registration and seats in the state legislature) as it clings desperately to fiscal and social conservatism. They'll be forced to move left towards the center if they don't want to stay irrelevant.

This trend is also already visible in Nevada and New Mexico (and Colorado to an extent). I expect it to continue and expand to Arizona and Texas. Utah will be affected but it probably won't be as noticeable as religion is so strong there.

What do you think? What political changes do you see in states over the next 20 years and why?

[5280]

I see the West trending Democrat or possibly more of a populist movement such as California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and my home state due to the influx of minorities moving in.  The northeast will become more of a Libertarian stronghold, people go against big government in New York, New Jersey and Massachusettes.

Believe the south will shift to the center socially and economically shift to the left, reflecting that of the northeast that we see today.  People migrating from the northeast tend to move south, that is most expected.  The midwest such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois will shift economically to the right and socially stay the same.  This is where the Republicans can focus on starting 2028 election cycles.

Anything can happen, change and the 2 major parties won't stick with the same platforms forever.

[Person Man]

Maybe the Republicans will be the party of the center of the country (Gulf Coast, Great Plains, Mississippi and Ohio River valleys) as Democrats consolidate around the edges (Up and Down both coasts, and around border areas that have the population to support a base of urban voters).

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'm still keeping my hopes that the South will be in Democratic hands again.  Texas will be a swing state by... 2024 or 2028, I'd say.  Georgia by 2020.

[Miles]

I'm still keeping my hopes that the South will be in Democratic hands again.

You have no idea how much I wish that were the case.

Anyway, I think TX will become swingy around 2020, possibly 2016, depending on the candidates. Last year, bonncaruso, who posts on the predictions thread, did an excellent analysis of Texas' electoral trends and demographic changes, I'll try to find it. 
The influx of northerners, hispanics and educated whites will make SC and GA more competitive within the next 20 years.

I suspect the west coast will continue to trend Democrat; as will other western states like NM, CO and AZ.

I agree with the general assessment that the GOP will take the heartland and industrial midwest while the Democratic bases will be anchored on the coasts, with the exception of IL.

[Mehmentum]

So something like this?

[5280]

So something like this?

Yeah, but make New York toss up along with New Jersey.

[greenforest32]

So something like this?

I doubt Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois are going to trend R. Wisconsin either (although I'll hold off on that after a few more elections).

[Skill and Chance]

So something like this?

That's a prohibitive D win unless CA and NY/New England lose like half their population.

[Miles]

Yeah, but make New York toss up along with New Jersey

I think NY will trend R, but it will still be reliably Democratic for the foreseeable future.

I doubt Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois are going to trend R. Wisconsin either (although I'll hold off on that after a few more elections).

MN is already trending R. Its trended R for 4 out of the last 6 Presidential elections.

[greenforest32]

Yeah, but make New York toss up along with New Jersey

I think NY will trend R, but it will still be reliably Democratic for the foreseeable future.

I doubt Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois are going to trend R. Wisconsin either (although I'll hold off on that after a few more elections).

MN is already trending R. Its trended R for 4 out of the last 6 Presidential elections.

Minnesota's % vote for a Democratic President in 2008 was the highest in 3 decades. If Republicans hold the state legislature in 2012 (they won both houses for the first time in decades in 2010) then I'll concede.

[Miles]

Yeah, but make New York toss up along with New Jersey

I think NY will trend R, but it will still be reliably Democratic for the foreseeable future.

I doubt Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois are going to trend R. Wisconsin either (although I'll hold off on that after a few more elections).

MN is already trending R. Its trended R for 4 out of the last 6 Presidential elections.

Minnesota's % vote for a Democratic President in 2008 was the highest in 3 decades. If Republicans hold the state legislature in 2012 (they won both houses for the first time in decades in 2010) then I'll concede.

All the population growth in MN is around Bachmann, Kline and Paulsen's districts; the Democratic strongholds up in the Iron Range and in the urban Twin Cities aren't growing nearly as fast as the conservative suburbs. The long-term population trends there will favor the GOP.

[Captain Chaos]

Yeah, but make New York toss up along with New Jersey

I think NY will trend R, but it will still be reliably Democratic for the foreseeable future.

I doubt Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois are going to trend R. Wisconsin either (although I'll hold off on that after a few more elections).

MN is already trending R. Its trended R for 4 out of the last 6 Presidential elections.

Minnesota's % vote for a Democratic President in 2008 was the highest in 3 decades. If Republicans hold the state legislature in 2012 (they won both houses for the first time in decades in 2010) then I'll concede.

The Democratic nominee for President has won Minnesota's electoral votes in every election since 1976. Overall, Minnesota is still a progressive (but increasingly conservative) state.

[Person Man]

2020- Democrats begin to solidify western base, exurbs are gaining power in Midwest.

2030- Democrats expand with their new western base, solidification of the "New South" as immigrants and white collar workers continue to move in. Republicans continue to gain as the Midwestern cities continue to crumble.

2040- GOP expands into the Northeast as more liberals move into the New South and West.

2050 - Liberal flight from CA....continued Northward expansion of the exurban GOP base and the expansion of the "New South" into marginal areas and perhaps enough outsiders finally begin to overrun to the Mormon states?  No one wants to live in Wyoming, so its pretty much stuck in time.

[Person Man]

By century's end, every place that has any mountains or water will be D and everywhere inland and flat will by GOP.

[greenforest32]

2020- Democrats begin to solidify western base, exurbs are gaining power in Midwest.

2030- Democrats expand with their new western base, solidification of the "New South" as immigrants and white collar workers continue to move in. Republicans continue to gain as the Midwestern cities continue to crumble.

2040- GOP expands into the Northeast as more liberals move into the New South and West.

2050 - Liberal flight from CA....continued Northward expansion of the exurban GOP base and the expansion of the "New South" into marginal areas and perhaps enough outsiders finally begin to overrun to the Mormon states?  No one wants to live in Wyoming, so its pretty much stuck in time.

So what's your rationale for predicting the Southeast trending D but the Midwest + parts of the northeast (NY/NJ/CT) trending R?

[Talleyrand]

2020- Democrats begin to solidify western base, exurbs are gaining power in Midwest.

2030- Democrats expand with their new western base, solidification of the "New South" as immigrants and white collar workers continue to move in. Republicans continue to gain as the Midwestern cities continue to crumble.

2040- GOP expands into the Northeast as more liberals move into the New South and West.

2050 - Liberal flight from CA....continued Northward expansion of the exurban GOP base and the expansion of the "New South" into marginal areas and perhaps enough outsiders finally begin to overrun to the Mormon states?  No one wants to live in Wyoming, so its pretty much stuck in time.

So what's your rationale for predicting the Southeast trending D but the Midwest + parts of the northeast (NY/NJ/CT) trending R?

What is your rationale for Appalachia, the Northeast, and Montana?

[Duke David]

I think Georgia, Montana and Arizona (perhaps even South Carolina and the Dakotas) will be turning blue, whereas New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania and some New England states will reacquaint themselves with the GOP.

[greenforest32]

2020- Democrats begin to solidify western base, exurbs are gaining power in Midwest.

2030- Democrats expand with their new western base, solidification of the "New South" as immigrants and white collar workers continue to move in. Republicans continue to gain as the Midwestern cities continue to crumble.

2040- GOP expands into the Northeast as more liberals move into the New South and West.

2050 - Liberal flight from CA....continued Northward expansion of the exurban GOP base and the expansion of the "New South" into marginal areas and perhaps enough outsiders finally begin to overrun to the Mormon states?  No one wants to live in Wyoming, so its pretty much stuck in time.

So what's your rationale for predicting the Southeast trending D but the Midwest + parts of the northeast (NY/NJ/CT) trending R?

What is your rationale for Appalachia, the Northeast, and Montana?

These aren't my maps. Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona are already trending D. What reason is there for the Northeast to trend R? They have stayed and gone further to the left (CT/VT etc) with the possible exception of Pennsylvania (the 2012 elections will be very telling for MN/PA/WI). Also Montana is just Idaho-lite in my view. I don't understand how they have 2 Democratic senators and a Republican controlled state legislature.

[TeePee4Prez]

I fail to see this thing with PA trending right.  The fastest growing areas in the East are trending Dem.  The slowest, or even negative growth areas in the west of PA are the most GOP.

[Miles]

I don't understand how they have 2 Democratic senators and a Republican controlled state legislature.

MT probably wouldn't have 2 Dem Senators if it had a Class III seat up last year.

Tester was a decent challenger running against a flawed incumbent and Baucus could always frame himself as an independent, western centrist Dem.

A fun fact: Baucus' seat has been in Democratic hands since 1913.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I'd like for the GOP to retain Arizona for nostalgic reasons, given it was the home of Barry Goldwater and it went Republican even in the super landslide year of 1964. However, that will in all likelihood not be the case. Given that, here's what I would liketo see though not necessarily what I will see:

[DS0816]

The two parties can stay as they are; they can flip.

You'll still get an electoral map where Vermont votes opposite Alabama and Mississippi.

Are Ds wanting the south (default, when prevailing)? Watch Vermont return to R.

There are nuances within certain states. States that vote alike. And then there are ones that certainly don't see eye to eye.

[Skill and Chance]

Dark Blue = hard right
Light Blue = soft right
Grey =  no trend
Light Red = soft left
Red = hard left

2032 State leans:

Explanations:

HI: Remains a strong Dem state.  Life doesn't change much out here

AK: Becomes more Republican as the Republicans become more libertarian.

CA/OR/WA: The Dems haven't peaked here yet, but there are only so many new votes to win
AZ/NV/CO/NM: Changing demographics produce rapid Dem gains.  CO in particular has all of the right changes to become a core Dem state in 20 years.

TX: The GOP here has shown that they have the organizational strength to reach out and win over Hispanic voters.  Dems will make only modest gains from demographic change.

UT: Also feels demographic change and moves to the left.  It remains a GOP state, but Democrats can win statewide offices in a 2006/08 environment.

MT/ID/WY: Continue moving to the GOP due to the importance of fossil fuels/mining.

ND/SD/NE/MN/IA: All of these Northern Plains states initially move to the right then drift back to the left as wind energy and biofuels gain importance.

OK/KS: I see no reason for a trend here.

WI/MO/IL/MI/IN/OH/PA: Urban and industrial/union decline = GOP gains.

LA/MS/AL/AR/KY/TN/KY/WV: Demographics strongly favor the new GOP here.  TN could eventually move back to the center.

FL: Demographic changes slightly favor the Dems, but GOP organizational skills should more than offset this.

GA/NC:  Will soon turn into southern enclaves of Maryland, and in neither state does the local GOP have the institutional strength to avoid being overwhelmed.

MD/DE/VA: The DC area continues moving left. The effect is most dramatic in VA where NOVA can now outvote everyone else.  It becomes a core Dem state by 2030.

NJ/NY: The Dems are almost certainly maxed out here.  Turner is a sign of things to come.

CT/RI/MA/VT/NH/ME:   The GOP focus on economic issues will eventually soften up New England.  RI in particular does not have the right demographics to remain a Democratic stronghold.

[Kevin]

If the OP is suggesting that the trend with culture wars in this country continues to die down in political importance then I'd agree with what has been said about the following happening.
 
Te development of a more libertarian leaning/socially moderate and mixed GOP comprising
conservative constituencies of  rural voters, wealthy businessman, of varying calibers, religious voters, and conservative leaning moderates, as well as other groups and new recent ones like young highly energetic libertarians, grass-roots activists, conservative leaning policy wonk types and possibly new groups like Asian/Indian voters for example.

As well as a Democratic Party that is overall center-left split between it's traditional working class factions and recent ones like liberal lawyers/academics, and middle/upper income urban whites, therefore appearing awfully like the British Labour Party in nature

The Northeast-The Northeast as a whole moves further to the right on economic issues and some other issues also. The GOP is able to compete and win in places like NJ, CT, ME, and possibly DE again, MD, MA, RI, NY, and VT remain solidly Democratic more or less.

Midwest/Rustbelt-Swing region with the exception of IN. IL, and MN.

Plains- Republican, but things could change in MT, SD, and ND.

South-Still solidly Republican overall except in the case of VA, NC, FL, and maybe WV and TX.

Southwest-Swing region overall, with AZ and NV being swing states while CO and NM lean slightly Democratic. While UT is heavily Republican.

Pacific Coast-CA and HI and to a much lesser extent WA are heavily Democratic, while OR is a swing state and AK is very Republican.

We also have to keep in mind like mentioned above sudden economic resource, or demographic changes which could cause the the political trajectory of states to shift. For example, let's say alot of oil and gas is discovered in MT or SD and over the next 10-15 years alot of people from all over move there aka America's Alberta. Combined with the explosive and diverse population growth, and energy interests who knows what direction this region could go in? Although, admittedly probably Republican like TX has.