Should the "early" polls worry the GOP?

[Averroës Nix]

Maybe this thread should be posting approvals/favorabilities instead of retarded head to heads then, eh?

It would certainly be more productive than pointlessly insulting people because they're not doing what you want them to.

Here are some numbers from the latest PPP poll. (665 voters, 9/8-9/11, margin of error +/-3.8%) (See the original here)

Unfortunately they didn't poll Obama's favorables.

Mitt Romney - 37/44/19
Rick Perry - 30/50/20
Michele Bachmann - 30/53/17
Newt Gingrich - 28/57/16

The same poll finds John McCain with 36/54/10. Not promising for Republicans, eh?

[opebo]

I can't help but feel that the title of this thread should be about early polls worrying Democrats.

Precisely.

[minionofmidas]

They should worry Republicans, but Democrats would do well to ignore them. If either party knows what's good for it.

[pbrower2a]

So far recent head-to-head matchups show the President winning all states that he must win and winning some states that the Republican nominee must win to have a chance.

Americans are unhappy with politics overall, and if the Republicans were doing a half-decent job they would be capable of promising jobs, economic growth, and reduced taxes -- even if the jobs had far lower pay, the economic growth is only for a few, and the tax cuts are only for economic elites. A drowning man grasps even at a viper.

Example: Magellan Strategies, an R pollster, just showed the President with leads of 10% or more against both Perry and Romney. The President won Pennsylvania by about 12%. The Republicans can win while losing Pennsylvania, as in 2000 and 2004 -- but in both cases, Pennsylvania was close.  Gore won it by 4%... add 1.2% and Gore wins irrespective of Katharine Harris because he would win New Hampshire.  Kerry won it by roughly 1.5%; add 2% nationwide, and Kerry adds Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio and becomes President.  The Republicans can lose the state by no more than 5% without expecting to lose some state that they absolutely must win.

To give some idea of how bad things are for the Democratic nominee if the Democrat had lost Pennsylvania... if Kerry had lost Pennsylvania, then he would have also lost New Hampshire and Wisconsin. If Gore had lost Pennsylvania, he would have also lost Oregon, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and New Mexico with Dubya winning 63 electoral votes that he won and with Katherine Harris having no influence on the election.

 
Pennsylvania is the canary in the coal mine even if it is not a genuine swing state. It is somewhat volatile. 

[Devils30]

I think the GOP needs to win PA or come very close to have any chance nationally. It's not 2000 and 2004 again, Nevada, Colorado are not lean Republican states anymore (odds are both will lean D in a 50/50 election) and Virginia is hardly a sure bet for the GOP either.

[The Vorlon]

On January 29th, 1980, ABC News/Harris released a poll.

Jimmy Carter was ahead of Ronald Reagan by 66/30 - a 36% lead

Carter's lead against some guy named George HW Bush (Whom everybody deemed to be far more electable than that crazy guy Reagan) was a slightly smaller 65-31%

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris-Interactive-Poll-Research-CARTER-NOW-FAR-AHEAD-OF-BOTH-REAGAN-AND-BUSH-1980-01.pdf

As I recall, things changed somewhat before the November election.

The KEY number to watch IMHO, is Obama's personal favorably (as opposed to job approval) Right now Obama's personal favorability is still fairly strong.  If Obama's personal favorability goes upside down, he is just about doomed, but he is not quite at that point yet.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The GOP candidates may appear to be a joke to those in the North East and the New York Metro.

They're an absolute joke around here.

[Wonkish1]

I agree about the favorability being more important than job approval.

But if you look at the polls they are falling like a rock right now. I'd bet that no sitting president has ever been reelected since Truman with unfavorables above 55%. I guess we'll see if his fall continues or bottoms out.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_favorableunfavorable-643.html

[The Vorlon]

I agree about the favorability being more important than job approval.

But if you look at the polls they are falling like a rock right now. I'd bet that no sitting president has ever been reelected since Truman with unfavorables above 55%. I guess we'll see if his fall continues or bottoms out.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_favorableunfavorable-643.html

When we get quite close to the actual election, Presidential job approval predicts very, very well.

Right now there is a big mismatch between Obama's approvals and the right track/wrong track question, by election day, these two will tend to move together (they always do)

[Wonkish1]

I agree about the favorability being more important than job approval.

But if you look at the polls they are falling like a rock right now. I'd bet that no sitting president has ever been reelected since Truman with unfavorables above 55%. I guess we'll see if his fall continues or bottoms out.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_favorableunfavorable-643.html

When we get quite close to the actual election, Presidential job approval predicts very, very well.

Right now there is a big mismatch between Obama's approvals and the right track/wrong track question, by election day, these two will tend to move together (they always do)

Agreed, I meant now. Pollsters tell you that when you are far out from the election the most predictive is the favorables, as you approach its job approval, and in the last couple weeks its head to heads.

So I think we are on the same page here.

[The Vorlon]

I agree about the favorability being more important than job approval.

But if you look at the polls they are falling like a rock right now. I'd bet that no sitting president has ever been reelected since Truman with unfavorables above 55%. I guess we'll see if his fall continues or bottoms out.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_favorableunfavorable-643.html

When we get quite close to the actual election, Presidential job approval predicts very, very well.

Right now there is a big mismatch between Obama's approvals and the right track/wrong track question, by election day, these two will tend to move together (they always do)

Agreed, I meant now. Pollsters tell you that when you are far out from the election the most predictive is the favorables, as you approach its job approval, and in the last couple weeks its head to heads.

So I think we are on the same page here.

Now there are exceptions...

Grey Davis got re-elected Governor of California with a Job Approval rating in the mid 30s, Lincoln Chaffee lost his senate seat with a 61% approval rating, and when George W Bush beat Ann Richards in 1992 she has a 70% approval rating...

But yes, 99% of the time, what you suggest works pretty darn well.....