@Lewis
Abbas just went on national TV today in the West Bank and declared he is going to ask for UN membership.
And who exactly loses if the US vetoes it? Certainly not Abbas.
What Abbas is doing is perfectly logical from his POV, especially with Jordan on the edge of a cliff.
Yes (except strike "if" and replace with "when"). Though not in the sense you seem to take.
Abbas is fighting to regain some sort of legitimacy among Palestinians.
Well, I guess it is pretty clear that two things ARE going to happen. US vetoes the Security Council resolution, blocking Palestinian admission into the organization, and the General Assembly, with the opposing votes of US, Israel and Micronesia (and very few others, if any), votes to make Palestine an observer state (thus, recognizing it as a state). The only way to prevent this would be if Israel suddenly and entirely unexpectedly makes some major material concessions (e.g., promising to evacuate a few majorish settlements within months). But the latter is not going to happen.
Of course, Israel will use the General Assembly action as a pretext for not negotiating, but, as Israel hasn't been negotiating and hasn't had any plans to negotiate since the current government has been in office, this would only mean no material change. It would be more interesting, if the GA resolution somehow linked international recognition of Israel w/ the international recognition of Palestine, but that is, probably, too much for the Europeans.
"Probably"? Voting for UN Membership for Palestine at this point is "too much" for Germany and most other Western European governments. Recognition as a non-member "state" might not be, but presumably only on condition that the membership vote be pulled.
It's not even clear that the US will have to use that veto. Passing the general assembly requires a two-thirds vote. That's about ~15-20 votes more than are committed to it - not much room for error for US politics of putting pressure on poor countries, and I assume it will pass, but it's not certain.
