What if Abbas succeeds and UN recognizes Palestine within pre1967 borders?

[ag]

Well, I guess it is pretty clear that two things ARE going to happen. US vetoes the Security Council resolution, blocking Palestinian admission into the organization, and the General Assembly, with the opposing votes of US, Israel and Micronesia (and very few others, if any), votes to make Palestine an observer state (thus, recognizing it as a state). The only way to prevent this would be if Israel suddenly and entirely unexpectedly makes some major material concessions (e.g., promising to evacuate a few majorish settlements within months). But the latter is not going to happen.

Of course, Israel will use the General Assembly action as a pretext for not negotiating, but, as Israel hasn't been negotiating and hasn't had any plans to negotiate since the current government has been in office, this would only mean no material change. It would be more interesting, if the GA resolution somehow linked international recognition of Israel w/ the international recognition of Palestine, but that is, probably, too much for the Europeans, and I'd conjecture they'd try to go for consensus (recognition of Palestine would, pretty much, be non-controversial in this world, if one forgets of US, Israel and Micronesia).

[ag]

Well, I guess it is pretty clear that two things ARE going to happen. US vetoes the Security Council resolution, blocking Palestinian admission into the organization, and the General Assembly, with the opposing votes of US, Israel and Micronesia (and very few others, if any), votes to make Palestine an observer state (thus, recognizing it as a state).

Harper Government, pretending to represent Canada will vote against (not a surprise, since Harper are more pro-Israel than Obama)

Yeah, I forgot about Harper: Canadians are too easy to forget about Thinking about it, a few others as well probably: but that won't change the essence.

Seriously, though, I don't see why Israel is that concerned about this. They could have gotten recognition of Israel as the Jewish state if they offered this as a price for not resisting Palestine joining the UN. In fact, they should be sponsoring this resolution. Instead they are going to merely raise doubts in their own international legitimacy. If they overplay their cards, they might get kicked out of the organization themselves (or, more likely, might not get their delegation seated, like they used to do it w/ South Africa). Not this time, but, given how many friends they are left w/ in this world, I wouldn't be shocked within a few years if that actually happened.

[ag]

Germany might not vote in favor in the GA, but I doubt it would vote against - an abstention is much more likely, I would think.  Getting 2/3 of the vote shouldn't be too difficult, but it would never come to that. US would veto: for purely domestic policy reasons. I am afraid, you'd need an evangelical Republican president to refuse to do that: like you needed Nixon to go to China.

Yes, of course, for the moment refusing to sit the Israeli delegation isn't likely at all. But, at the rate Israeli government is doing everything to make itself popular internationally, within 10 years this might be very much on the agenda. This would, of course, change, if they made any attempt at negotiating in good faith, but there is no sign that, at least, this government, would find it at all desirable, nor there is any sign of the Israeli public opinion moving into a direction that would lead to a different kind of a government.

[ag]

Right, yeah. A veto would come before a GA vote. (?)

A veto in the Security Council would simply prevent the GA vote for actual membership. After that, most likely, they'd petition for the observer state status: there will be no Security Council vote on that, if I understand it right, only the GA vote, and I'd be quite a bit surprised if Germany votes against that.

[ag]

So, does anybody know what, if anything, the projected timeline for the GA vote is supposed to look like? Will the actual vote take place next week?

Well, they'd first have to introduce and have the full membership resolution vetoed in the SC, then petition the GA for the observer state status, the resolution would have to be hashed out for quite a while, etc., etc.... It will take some weeks, at the very least.

[ag]

Typical bias from the left towards the Palestinian Muslims. In the end my view will be vindicated. Why should Israel concede land when the Palestinian Muslims should be admitted as citizens with full rights in Jordan? Offer the Christians full Israeli citizen rights in the process.

The most amusing part is the idea that Christians would want to be assimilated into an Israeli state.

Even more amusing is the idea that Israeli state would want to assimilate Christians. Christians are worse than Muslims: at least, Muslims are monotheist.

This guy is talking about the state that considers conversion to Christianity to be grounds for denying citizenship rights to those otherwise eligible.

[ag]

To the one who doesnt think Christians are monotheist, we are. We happen to believe in the G-d of Abraham, Issac, and Jacob (Israel) where our primary difference is over Yeshuah (Jesus). I and all Christians believe Yeshuah is the messiah the Jewish people have been looking for.

Me? I don't care sh**t about it.  Unfortunately, my fellow-tribesmen who care about this tend to think you, guys, don't pass the monotheist cut. And their opinion is the one that counts in Israel.