What if Abbas succeeds and UN recognizes Palestine within pre1967 borders?
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  What if Abbas succeeds and UN recognizes Palestine within pre1967 borders?
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Author Topic: What if Abbas succeeds and UN recognizes Palestine within pre1967 borders?  (Read 11697 times)
minionofmidas
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« Reply #25 on: September 17, 2011, 04:45:52 AM »

@Lewis

Abbas just went on national TV today in the West Bank and declared he is going to ask for UN membership.

And who exactly loses if the US vetoes it?  Certainly not Abbas.  

What Abbas is doing is perfectly logical from his POV, especially with Jordan on the edge of a cliff.
Yes (except strike "if" and replace with "when"). Though not in the sense you seem to take.
Abbas is fighting to regain some sort of legitimacy among Palestinians.

Well, I guess it is pretty clear that two things ARE going to happen. US vetoes the Security Council resolution, blocking Palestinian admission into the organization, and the General Assembly, with the opposing votes of US, Israel and Micronesia (and very few others, if any), votes to make Palestine an observer state (thus, recognizing it as a state). The only way to prevent this would be if Israel suddenly and entirely unexpectedly makes some major material concessions (e.g., promising to evacuate a few majorish settlements within months). But the latter is not going to happen.

Of course, Israel will use the General Assembly action as a pretext for not negotiating, but, as Israel hasn't been negotiating and hasn't had any plans to negotiate since the current government has been in office, this would only mean no material change. It would be more interesting, if the GA resolution somehow linked international recognition of Israel w/ the international recognition of Palestine, but that is, probably, too much for the Europeans.
"Probably"? Voting for UN Membership for Palestine at this point is "too much" for Germany and most other Western European governments. Recognition as a non-member "state" might not be, but presumably only on condition that the membership vote be pulled.
It's not even clear that the US will have to use that veto. Passing the general assembly requires a two-thirds vote. That's about ~15-20 votes more than are committed to it - not much room for error for US politics of putting pressure on poor countries, and I assume it will pass, but it's not certain.
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ag
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« Reply #26 on: September 17, 2011, 09:36:28 AM »
« Edited: September 17, 2011, 09:38:49 AM by ag »

Germany might not vote in favor in the GA, but I doubt it would vote against - an abstention is much more likely, I would think.  Getting 2/3 of the vote shouldn't be too difficult, but it would never come to that. US would veto: for purely domestic policy reasons. I am afraid, you'd need an evangelical Republican president to refuse to do that: like you needed Nixon to go to China.

Yes, of course, for the moment refusing to sit the Israeli delegation isn't likely at all. But, at the rate Israeli government is doing everything to make itself popular internationally, within 10 years this might be very much on the agenda. This would, of course, change, if they made any attempt at negotiating in good faith, but there is no sign that, at least, this government, would find it at all desirable, nor there is any sign of the Israeli public opinion moving into a direction that would lead to a different kind of a government.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #27 on: September 17, 2011, 09:48:57 AM »

Right, yeah. A veto would come before a GA vote. (?)
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #28 on: September 17, 2011, 01:32:44 PM »

You don't seem to know the first thing about the UN.

how so?  you think even a US veto is going to stop the recognition of Palestine?  and would the US even veto such a resolution?

yes, absolutely. Obama has pretty much promised a veto: http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/90060182?U.S.%20confirms%20veto%20position%20if%20Palestinians%20move%20UNSC%20for%20statehood

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-says-it-will-veto-any-palestinian-statehood-bid-at-the-un-security-council/2011/09/08/gIQAfiicCK_story.html
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Nathan
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« Reply #29 on: September 17, 2011, 03:11:57 PM »

So, does anybody know what, if anything, the projected timeline for the GA vote is supposed to look like? Will the actual vote take place next week?
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ag
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« Reply #30 on: September 17, 2011, 03:12:46 PM »

Right, yeah. A veto would come before a GA vote. (?)

A veto in the Security Council would simply prevent the GA vote for actual membership. After that, most likely, they'd petition for the observer state status: there will be no Security Council vote on that, if I understand it right, only the GA vote, and I'd be quite a bit surprised if Germany votes against that.
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ag
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« Reply #31 on: September 17, 2011, 03:15:04 PM »

So, does anybody know what, if anything, the projected timeline for the GA vote is supposed to look like? Will the actual vote take place next week?

Well, they'd first have to introduce and have the full membership resolution vetoed in the SC, then petition the GA for the observer state status, the resolution would have to be hashed out for quite a while, etc., etc.... It will take some weeks, at the very least.
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dead0man
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« Reply #32 on: September 18, 2011, 09:43:09 AM »

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #33 on: September 18, 2011, 01:40:31 PM »

It would be a step forward to peace in the Middle East.


...of course it won't happen, because Obama will act like a pussy as usual.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #34 on: September 18, 2011, 09:35:50 PM »

Obama should veto statehood. They already have one if King Abdullah would do the right thing and admit them as citizens of Jordan and give the entirety of the West Bank back to her rightful sovereigns the people of Israel.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #35 on: September 19, 2011, 09:33:41 AM »

A new BBC survey shows that ALL countries polled by them support Palestine to become a country:



http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/bbc2011_palestine/bbc2011_palestine.pdf
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #36 on: September 19, 2011, 01:23:09 PM »

Wow, I'm surprised Palestine is more popular in the U.S. than it is in Latin America, India, or Russia.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #37 on: September 19, 2011, 01:39:14 PM »

Israel should just annex the lands and kick out all who aren't Jews.
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Nathan
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« Reply #38 on: September 19, 2011, 01:57:26 PM »

A new BBC survey shows that ALL countries polled by them support Palestine to become a country:



http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/bbc2011_palestine/bbc2011_palestine.pdf

Is there any country in the world other than Israel where more people would vote 'Should vote against' than 'Should vote for'?

Israel should just annex the lands and kick out all who aren't Jews.

...you're aware of how blatantly racist and criminal that would be, right?
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jmfcst
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« Reply #39 on: September 19, 2011, 02:02:17 PM »

Israel should just annex the lands and kick out all who aren't Jews.

...you're aware of how blatantly racist and criminal that would be, right?

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4122473,00.html
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Nathan
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« Reply #40 on: September 19, 2011, 02:09:23 PM »


Well, of course. That's asinine too. That doesn't make what you're suggesting any better.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #41 on: September 19, 2011, 02:10:41 PM »


Well, of course. That's asinine too. That doesn't make what you're suggesting any better.

but  the land does belong to the Jews
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jmfcst
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« Reply #42 on: September 19, 2011, 02:24:20 PM »

since when is it illegal to gain land by war?  isn't that how most land was gained in the past?
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Sbane
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« Reply #43 on: September 19, 2011, 02:29:36 PM »

Wow, I'm surprised Palestine is more popular in the U.S. than it is in Latin America, India, or Russia.

As for India, Israel's cause is actually very popular with Hindu nationalists. When the BJP was in power from 1998-2004, Israeli and Indian relations got better by leaps and bounds. Some think it was why the US started to get closer to India as well.

Not to mention some think Israel should be able to do what they want just as India should be able to do what it wants in Kashmir. Also there were a lot who weren't sure so keep that in mind as well.
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Sbane
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« Reply #44 on: September 19, 2011, 02:31:21 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2011, 02:35:48 PM by sbane »

since when is it illegal to gain land by war?  isn't that how most land was gained in the past?

Why should the USA support Israel though. Maybe we should support the Palestinians instead? That would sort things out real quick.

Oh btw the land belongs to Israel only in your biblical wet dream. Most of the world doesn't agree with you. Deal with it!

Although the Hindu and obviously Jewish fundies do agree with you Christian fundies. Maybe ya'll should get together and have a party!
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jmfcst
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« Reply #45 on: September 19, 2011, 02:44:28 PM »

since when is it illegal to gain land by war?  isn't that how most land was gained in the past?
Oh btw the land belongs to Israel only in your biblical wet dream. Most of the world doesn't agree with you. Deal with it!

Oh, I've already come to terms with it, but you're the one who is going to have to deal with it.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #46 on: September 19, 2011, 02:58:56 PM »

Because Israel is fixing to gain a lot more land when it's all said and done.  Here's the kicker, the United States will have no hand in this.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #47 on: September 19, 2011, 03:20:27 PM »

since when is it illegal to gain land by war?  isn't that how most land was gained in the past?
Oh btw the land belongs to Israel only in your biblical wet dream. Most of the world doesn't agree with you. Deal with it!

Oh, I've already come to terms with it, but you're the one who is going to have to deal with it.

Deal with what? The more the Israelis overplay their hand, the more likely they are to meet a horrible end later on. And it's quite hard to feel sympathy for a country that illegally keeps on taking more and more land in the form of settlements. The world has turned against Israel, and the US is soon going to be either unwilling or unable to do anything about it. And if Israel tries to make it a partisan issue in the US, the sooner their demise will be.

And before anyone comes in charging me with anti-semitism, please explain to me why I should put Israelis over Palestinians. They are both humans, am I correct? Feel free to correct me. Is an Israeli life worth more than a Palestinian one?
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Nathan
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« Reply #48 on: September 19, 2011, 04:01:56 PM »


Well, of course. That's asinine too. That doesn't make what you're suggesting any better.

but  the land does belong to the Jews

Why?
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MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #49 on: September 19, 2011, 04:06:37 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2011, 04:13:57 PM by PhoenixRising »

Actually, that land belongs to Israel and therefore they can settle it if they want. In fact they have right to all of Lebanan ,all of Jordan, Egypt east of the Nile, the northern 1/2 of Saudi Arabia, all of Syria, and part of Iraq. The world needs to preassure Jordan to let the Palestinians in not Israel to give more land for a false peace.

It belongs to the Jews because of what G-d promised Abraham to his line through Issac.
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