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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308285 times)
Cliffy
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Posts: 593
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« on: October 10, 2012, 09:24:19 PM »

As I pointed out in another thread Gallups sample has non white voters increased by 5 points this week and it's 6% higher turnout model for non white voters than 2008.  Not believable at this point.
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2012, 12:34:05 PM »

He's bouncing like a rock dropped in the swimming pool.  Marist and PPP were certainly trying to give impression of a bounce but only people on here believe that.

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Cliffy
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2012, 02:36:11 PM »

If Obama gets significant movement in Rasmussen or Gallup then I'll start to think he has a shot.  At this point he's in real trouble.
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2012, 11:09:35 PM »

You think someone could post the PPP daily tracker? I haven't seen it yet. Lol, sorry guys.. I had to!

Did PPP have a daily tracker in 08?
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2012, 11:50:28 PM »

Gravis National Romney 46-44
http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/romney-up-2-in-latest-national-poll.html

It's D+8 that should be popular.
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2012, 10:29:49 AM »

Not sure where to post this, looks like Romney is starting to separate a little.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Swing State Tracking Poll

•Romney 50% (+1)

•Obama 46% (-1)

Obama Job Approval:

•Approve: 47% (-1)
•Disapprove: 53% (+2)
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2012, 12:01:51 PM »

Lol, our friends on here that say Party ID doesn't matter, ignore that these bastions of liberal polling keep having to increase their D samples to keep that firewall up for Obama.  Hope the lib voters get the memo they have to turnout accordingly.... wait I guess the polls are the memo Smiley



Party id: D +6

(when it was tied, it was D +4, when it was o +1, it was D+5. TODAY, Party identification is solid like gender, age in my opinion).

Romney lead Independents by 6. Steady lead.
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2012, 12:22:57 PM »

It's just an amazing coincidence then.  I've noticed over the years Dems tend to belive in coincidences....

Lol, our friends on here that say Party ID doesn't matter, ignore that these bastions of liberal polling keep having to increase their D samples to keep that firewall up for Obama.  Hope the lib voters get the memo they have to turnout accordingly.... wait I guess the polls are the memo Smiley



Party id: D +6

(when it was tied, it was D +4, when it was o +1, it was D+5. TODAY, Party identification is solid like gender, age in my opinion).

Romney lead Independents by 6. Steady lead.
You can't try to increase Party ID you retard. Party ID depends on the sample, it's random.
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2012, 12:25:32 PM »

Ras and Gallup are getting closer.  Gallup is holding a strong trend for Romney. Smiley 

 

Gallup LV

Romney 51% (-)
Obama 45% (-)

Obama job approval (Adults)

Approve 49% (-1)
Disapprove 46%
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2012, 09:15:04 PM »

It's not random when you manipulate your demographics to get there...... good grief.  Can we have a discussion without name calling?

Lol, our friends on here that say Party ID doesn't matter, ignore that these bastions of liberal polling keep having to increase their D samples to keep that firewall up for Obama.  Hope the lib voters get the memo they have to turnout accordingly.... wait I guess the polls are the memo Smiley



Party id: D +6

(when it was tied, it was D +4, when it was o +1, it was D+5. TODAY, Party identification is solid like gender, age in my opinion).

Romney lead Independents by 6. Steady lead.
You can't try to increase Party ID you retard. Party ID depends on the sample, it's random.
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Cliffy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2012, 09:25:47 PM »

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/10/20/UPI-Poll-Obama-cuts-into-Romney-lead/UPI-19991350739458/



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Cliffy
Jr. Member
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2012, 07:56:39 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2012, 11:35:32 PM by Cliffy »

Turnout won't be D+7, you think it will good for you.

Obama is not winning men by one either, no one shows this.

Romney is up by at least 2-3 right now and that's a very safe guess.  IBD is a joke,lol.

without the IBD poll romney is up big in the RCP.....

Just noticed that the IBD poll is 90% likely voter, lol that's precious.

and Obama is only down 1 pt in the south, that's highly believable???  Please hang your hopes on this poll.

The incredibly accurate IDB poll in 08
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/IBDTrackerTrend.php
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Cliffy
Jr. Member
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2012, 01:56:55 PM »

Tipp has an outlier in there, course their body of work was terrible in 08, to small a samples. 

In your summary you have Obama up 2, should be romney.
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Cliffy
Jr. Member
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2012, 08:40:16 PM »

I think you guys missed one of your favorites. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/102010211022TrackingPoll.pdf

PPP Daily Tracker
Romney 49
Obama 47

Men
Romney 55
Obama 41

Women
Obama 51
Romney 45

Independents
Romney 50
Obama 42

Presidential JA
Approve 46
Disapprove 51
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Cliffy
Jr. Member
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2012, 08:53:05 PM »


Is this debate going to move the needle like the 2nd debate?  I don't think Obama has a chance if he keeps getting debate movement.
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2012, 04:29:33 PM »

Obama is below 47 in the RCP (without Zogy 46.66) with less than two weeks out.  This election is over. Cheesy
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2012, 08:06:48 AM »

Is PPP coming back to earth on the turnout??? I believe it was D+4

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (PPP Tracking)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2012, 08:47:08 AM »

Lol, they are finding an electorate like 08.  I've been telling you your terrible three are skewing demographics to get their skewed turnout models, but oh no.  You'll see. Cheesy
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2012, 10:41:44 AM »

Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2012, 01:58:45 PM »

And Silver predicted 54 house pickups by GOP and Rasmussen by 55, so technically he sucked worse than Rasmussen, what a sterling and objective source you have there.


it was not a presidential election. And the best of Rasmussen is his national tracking poll. His state polls can be wrong sometimes.

They were poor in 2000, good in 2004, and merely average in 2008.

Silver has already destroyed the myth of Rasmussen being accurate.
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2012, 09:07:43 PM »

Where's ABC/WaPO daily tracker?

Was it a good day for Romney Roll Eyes
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2012, 09:45:31 PM »

WaPo tracking will be released early tomorrow (thru Fri), early Monday (thu Sat) then back to 5PM release on Monday (thru Sun) per @jcpolls

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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2012, 10:49:36 PM »

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Romney up 1 in the PPP daily track, 49-48. Romney up 16(!) with independents. Sample is D+3. Obama approval 44-52.
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Cliffy
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2012, 12:13:02 AM »

Which is going to be more fun, this tracker thread over the next six days, or the slew of final polls released next Sat-Mon? Wink

I'll take unskewing the skewed for $1000 Alex.
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Cliffy
Jr. Member
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Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2012, 03:07:42 PM »

ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%



"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "

Good thing that sample changed Roll Eyes

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