National Tracking Poll Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308960 times)
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« on: April 22, 2012, 12:09:05 PM »
Well there goes the Romney bump.......
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2012, 02:28:47 PM »
Quote from: Invisible Voter on September 07, 2012, 02:24:44 PM
The Gallup poll has been very very very stead for the last month. It has either been tied or with Romney or Obama +1.

And if last month's job report didnt hurt Obama, why will this month's hurt him?

Exactly.

The Jobs report sucked, no doubt about it.....but it has also sucked for the most part since April, and yet Obama's numbers have been fairly consistent.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2012, 12:00:49 PM »
Gallup

Obama-49
Romney-45
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2012, 04:03:34 PM »
Obamamentum!
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2012, 11:27:17 AM »
Quote from: Franzl on September 12, 2012, 11:07:55 AM
Are the American voters really smart enough to realize how calculated Romney's fake outrage is....or will they just think: Americans killed --> Obama is in charge --> Obama's at fault?

I'd like to think Americans will see through it...

Us "dumb" Americans can see through this phony mannequin.........
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2012, 06:08:47 PM »
Reuters

Obama-48
Romney-41
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2012, 12:04:55 PM »
Obama hits 50% on Gallup

Obama-50%(+1)
Romney-44%(-1)
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2012, 03:05:30 PM »
Reuters

Obama-47(+1)
Romney-45(+1)
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2012, 12:01:24 PM »
Gallup

Obama-49 (NC)
Romney-46(NC)
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2012, 02:22:03 PM »
Not surprised.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2012, 12:27:42 PM »

Gallup.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2012, 12:57:38 PM »
Quote from: Clinton1996 "Sec. of Explaining Stuff" on October 08, 2012, 12:50:20 PM
Is there a reason RCP has the race tied at 47 percent in their table?



They are going with Gallup three day sample that showed a tied race.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2012, 06:58:46 PM »
According to NPR, Gallup is switching to LV tomorrow.

The guest expects Obama's lead to evaporate.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #13 on: October 10, 2012, 12:01:45 PM »
Gallup

RV

Obama-50(+1)
Romney-45(-1)

LV

Romney-48(-1)
Obama-48(+1)
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2012, 12:41:46 PM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on October 12, 2012, 12:35:51 PM
I just read that Obama's lead grew to 2.02% on RAND.

Yup.

Obama-48.17
Romney-46.15
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2012, 11:33:36 AM »
RAND

Obama-49.1
Romney-45.34
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2012, 12:32:17 PM »
Quote from: Senator Sbane on October 18, 2012, 12:28:05 PM
Didn't Gallup predict the Democrats would lose the house by double digit margins in 2010 using their "traditional" likely voter model? Are they still using that model this year?

Yeah, Gallup was off by nine points in 2010 with their LV model.

Even Silver doesn't use their LV numbers for his model.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2012, 01:02:56 PM »
Yeah, that sounds about right.

The race is tied or a slight lead for Mitt at the moment.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2012, 01:08:42 PM »
D+5 sounds about right.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2012, 02:00:03 PM »
Quote from: Reds4 on October 18, 2012, 01:57:00 PM
Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..

Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.


Quote from: Lief on October 18, 2012, 01:54:38 PM
Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

Mitt was leading by 4 in their national poll last week, the race is tied now at 48-48.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2012, 02:15:01 PM »
Quote from: Umengus on October 18, 2012, 02:12:47 PM
Quote from: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 02:00:03 PM
Quote from: Reds4 on October 18, 2012, 01:57:00 PM
Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..

Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.


Quote from: Lief on October 18, 2012, 01:54:38 PM
Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

Mitt was leading by 4 in their national poll last week, the race is tied now at 48-48.



because change in their party id: D+2 to D+5...

Do we have to explain party ID to you again?
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2012, 02:55:36 PM »
Quote from: Umengus on October 18, 2012, 02:53:57 PM
Quote from: Lief on October 18, 2012, 02:14:46 PM


PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.

and it's the problem...there is a correlation between the number of democrats and the obama result. Just a fact.

Jesus.........
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2012, 03:05:18 PM »
Quote from: Lief on October 18, 2012, 03:04:08 PM
No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2012, 03:12:01 PM »
Quote from: pepper11 on October 18, 2012, 03:09:44 PM
Quote from: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 03:05:18 PM
Quote from: Lief on October 18, 2012, 03:04:08 PM
No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

Maybe Silver said something different in his blog but the graph for the EV clearly shows small upward movement for Romney and downward movement for Obama. My mistake if it did.

It didn't.

Lief is correct, Obama was at 64.8 the other day and is at 65.7.
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2012, 04:39:34 PM »
Reuters

Obama-47(NC)
Romney-44(NC)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/18/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE89F07J20121018
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