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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308307 times)
afleitch
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« on: September 08, 2012, 12:11:43 PM »

A sample that's only 1 out of 7 from after the DNC completely ended and Obama's already up 4%. Nice.

Dr Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium argued after the DNC that Romney in all probability received a negative bounce and that much of his uptick was the end of a Ryan bounce. If as the tracking polls indicate that Obama started to receive a bounce before the DNC really got going then it suggests that the post convention weekend/Monday morning hangover drove Obama upwards and helps confirm his theory.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2012, 04:04:31 PM »

If we get a non-tracker national poll in the next couple of days, it could be truly scary looking for Romney.

Depends which firm.
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afleitch
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2012, 04:48:32 PM »

The RAND American Life Panel - 17/09

Obama 48.25
Romney 44.87
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afleitch
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2012, 05:09:30 PM »

The RAND American Life Panel - 18/09

Obama 48.78
Romney 44.4
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afleitch
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2012, 04:54:25 AM »

The RAND American Life Panel - 19/09

Obama 49.29 (+0.51)
Romney 43.91 (-0.49)

The also released updateds on racial splits which are:

Whites - 52.8 - 48.2 for Romney
African Americans - 90.7 to 6.5 for Obama
Hispanics - 66.4 to 24.8 for Obama
Others - 59.7 to 35.6 for Obama
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afleitch
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2012, 08:45:58 AM »

Rassmussen

Obama 47
Romney 45

With leaners:

Obama 50
Romney 47
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afleitch
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2012, 09:30:49 AM »

Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.

Polls that directly ask voters how it alters their perception of the candidates say otherwise.
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afleitch
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2012, 12:55:45 PM »

A handy comparison of the tracking polls by Nate Silver.

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afleitch
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2012, 09:55:13 AM »

RAND 21 Sep

Obama 49.84
Romney 43.93

Every release they give us a snapshot of various demographics. Romney leads men by only 0.72. This is a huge change from the 15th when he led men by 6.76 and he had led with men fairly strongly since the start of the survey. Obama leads women by 12.18
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afleitch
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2012, 11:53:43 AM »


I'm glad he's finally admitted it.
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afleitch
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2012, 06:55:20 AM »

Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98


Curious.
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afleitch
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2012, 12:13:14 PM »

Gallup

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45
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afleitch
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2012, 08:57:40 AM »

That's good news. The first post debate sample will drop off tommorow.
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afleitch
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2012, 06:15:11 AM »

RAND stable.

Obama 48.93 (-0.02)
Romney 45.91 (+0.09)
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afleitch
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2012, 09:23:52 AM »

Jobs numbers may be having an effect. Obama's favourables are up and Rasmussen notes that consumer confidence moved up ten points once the numbers were released.
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afleitch
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2012, 10:02:37 AM »

It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.

I'm not seeing any evidence of a drop off.  It might have moved Romney closer, but not over the top.

Looking at Rassmussen and working back, when last Tuesday fell off and the Wed-Fri sample favoured Romney by 49 to 47 that means Romney had a huge advantage in the Friday sample which seems consistent with what pollsters like PP were saying. The Thursday to Saturday sample showed the margin as steady which means Obama probably had to have had a Saturday sample as good (relatively speaking) as his pre-debate Wednesday sample (he may have led that days sample). For the race to now be tied today it means that the Sunday sample had to been at least equally strong.

If Friday was a BIG sample for Romney (so much so that it caused most of the four point jump) then that sample falls off tomorrow. If Obama has an average to good day today then he is likely to take the lead tomorrow. If he as a very good day today he could find himself back up to a 2 point lead.

That would constitute, given what we know about Rasmussen a return to the status quo. Still all hypothetical of course.
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afleitch
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2012, 03:33:25 AM »

RAND 8th October

Obama 49.07 (+0.14)
Romney 45.24 (+0.05)

Interestingly Romney supporters 'intention to vote' has fallen while Obama supporters 'intention to vote' has been increasing and is now at it's highest since the survey began.

They have also released details of their sub-samples for the battleground states. These are too small (I think) to consitutute polls on their own. For what it's worth it shows a narrowing in Ohio (which was driven pre-debate) but a steady Obama lead in Florida
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afleitch
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2012, 12:00:25 PM »

Gallup

LV: Romney 49 (+1) Obama 47 (-1)
RV: Obama 50 (+1) Romney 45 (-1)
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afleitch
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2012, 12:06:10 PM »

Interestingly Obama's approvals are up to 53% and Gallup are still using a 7 day model for their Presidential tracker. I thought they would have switched to a three day model?
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afleitch
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« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2012, 12:07:41 PM »

The RV numbers are actually Obama 49 (-1), Romney 47 (+1).

That changed. I wish I screen grabbed the page but the numbers I posted were the ones on the site at the o'clock.
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afleitch
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2012, 12:24:49 PM »

Oh Gallup and your small print...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

'Although Gallup's main focus is on seven-day rolling averages, a breakdown of interviewing over shorter periods can be helpful in understanding the short-term impact of events like conventions and debates. As Gallup reported Monday, Romney gained ground among registered voters in the immediate aftermath of his Oct. 3 debate, moving from a five-point deficit prior to the debate to a tie in the three days that immediately followed. Most of that gain was driven by substantial Romney leads in the Thursday and Friday tracking.

Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday -- the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney's debate "bounce" may be fading.'
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afleitch
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2012, 12:29:15 PM »

Maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard, but having lived through enough cycles with demoralized Dem voters and dysfunctional campaigns, the one area I don't worry about is a yawning RV/LV gap. The Obama campaign doesn't have 386 campaign offices in Ohio for people to hold signs.

(Obviously Romney has a bounce in the polls and his followers are super energized right now, I'm just sayin'.)

Curiously in 2008 Obama's RV and LV numbers closely followed each other, McCain however suffered and had a significant gap between the two.
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afleitch
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2012, 04:24:54 AM »

Little Obama 'surge' on RAND continues

Obama 49.56 (+0.46)
Romney 44.94 (-0.40)
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afleitch
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2012, 09:09:45 AM »

The RCP average has, pending Gallup, reverted to a tie.

Curiously they didn't include last weeks O+3 YouGov poll dewspite YouGov having been polling since 2004 yet new outfits get included. If they did, then Obama would probably have squeezed ahead.
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afleitch
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2012, 12:05:48 PM »

Romney now leads by 6 with Gallup
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