National Tracking Poll Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308334 times)
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« on: September 02, 2012, 05:17:48 PM »

Traditionally I track the race through the combined signs the state polls are pointing towards, CBS/NYT national polls and ABC/washington post nat'l polls. 

I dont care what your political philosophy is, the electorate in a Presidential election is not going to be GOP +4, so no, I'm not paying attention to the Rasmussen tracker.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2012, 02:57:39 PM »

What is Rasmussen even doing to have Romney ahead in this race?  He's ahead but losing every swing state outside of NC by more than 5?  It makes him look ridiculous.  This is a renowed pollster with a decent record but he was dreadful in 2010 and he's seemingly completely off the mark this time.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2012, 06:48:50 PM »

The RV polls are normalizing and LV polls are not. 

This is an enthusiasm gap.  Republicans were pumped up by the debate and Democrats were somewhat dismayed by Obama's performance.  Hence, when you screen them for your LV model, more Republicans are qualifying as LVs after the debate. 

I think a good chunk out of the swing is due to this. 
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2012, 12:06:45 PM »

And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2012, 12:27:57 PM »


I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

Obama might not win a single county in WV.  Just let that sink in. 
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2012, 12:16:30 PM »

Rasmussen showing the race tied? 

Bad news for Mr. Romney!
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2012, 04:15:27 PM »


You didn't see I was mimicking a certain Atlas legend?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2012, 11:13:44 PM »

Look like Obama might hit his magic number with white people.  Unbelievable.  We've come a long way since this

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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 02:03:04 PM »

I think that we are witnessing Mittmentum and that it will continue through Election Day.
Probably caused by the coveted undecideds breaking for Mitt 75/25, as they broke for Kerry in 2004.

Now, I don't know the exact distribution of the undecideds in Bush-Kerry election. It's just my gut feeling. But they broke for Kerry massively. Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray:

Quote
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Didn't I completely discredit you on this in the IA thread?  I noticed you never bothered to even try to argue with me.  Maybe you ought to go back an refresh your memory.
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