National Tracking Poll Thread

[minionofmidas]

So what's going on? You can't tell me people just watched both conventions, found the R's more underwhelming, and therefore switched their support.
Dem base taking the Convention as its cue to tune in / decide they will, in fact, go and vote is my guess... in which case the Presidential Election is over and the House and Senate Elections have just seriously begun. Alas, we won't know for quite a while and I can end up looking stupid.

[minionofmidas]

One wonders what, exactly, happened with Gallup's poll.

[minionofmidas]

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So at what point do people actually reply? How close to 500 people actually reply every day, what percentage actually replies on polling day? And is it reweighted for evening things out?
People have until 1am Pacific Time day after to vote, so the October 3rd bump could be from the debate. Also, 7 days and 14 days before October 4th were, in fact, relatively bad days for Obama, so if it's actually more or less the same 500 people rolling a new reply in every thursday, this could be but a handful of people snapping back to their senses after reporting oddly mittenish for the past two weeks.

[minionofmidas]

Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

If the Bush years are any indication, this is what Republicans - and Dem-voting Moderate Hero mainstream journalists - want to see in a President.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, that "shine" better start packing his bags right now.

WTF does shine mean, I assume it's a southern derogatory term for blacks but is the meaning behind it?

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And the source they give for that etymology is... Urban Dictionary. lol. Mind you, it'd be one of my two first guesses, so...


Goddam Ninjas.

[minionofmidas]

Rand poll: Obama 48,21 Romney: 46,37

Now I'm starting to get worried.

[minionofmidas]

Out of 3500 people nationwide in their tracking poll, how many are going to be in Ohio? About 130. Now what has everybody been ever telling you about tiny subsamples?

[minionofmidas]

Rasmussen showing the race tied? 

Bad news for Mr. Romney!

High time he conceded. -_-

[minionofmidas]

HI: Bush +0.9- FLIPPED (huge issues with polling here every year)

There were just two polls IIRC, or at least only two late ones.