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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308282 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« on: September 28, 2012, 11:49:56 PM »

Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

Kind of just irrelevant, generally. Among other things, I believe that the approval numbers are among adults, and the horserace numbers among RV.

Approval ratings do matter ... but only to a point. I've argued all year that if the horse race is really close, then the approvals will matter. But if the challenger is clearly down nationally, and the approvals of the incumbent are down or even in negative terms, then it shows the incumbent can be ahead in spite of that.

But this election could break many established rules of elections... having said that I doubt Obama's approvals will be underwater in many places outside of Ras on election day.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2012, 08:37:08 AM »

Rasmussen - 30 Sept

without leaners
Obama: 48%
Romney: 46%

with leaners
Obama: 49%
Romney: 47%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2012, 08:39:42 AM »

Rasmussen - Monday 1 October

Obama - 50% (+1)
Romney - 47% (UC)
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2012, 09:50:23 AM »

Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2012, 10:14:55 AM »

Alright, I don't think Romney was that great, because he lied left right and especially centre, was a little too aggressive at times - but equally Obama looked bored and irritated and gave Romney WAY WAY too many free passes... But it has nothing to do with substance (regardless of who might have 'won' on that front) it had to do with presentation - and Romney was considered to be more engaged, enthusiastic and confident ... so he won, simple as that.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2012, 04:28:55 PM »

So it seems, Friday was a very strong Romney sample on Ras and Gallup, there was a big drop on Rueters, but it looks like Obama might be stabilising on that... and Rand remains positive for the president...

As I said in the other thread, I think we'll get a decent picture of what sort of genuine 'bounce' Romney had until early-Mid next week...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2012, 04:34:10 PM »

That's the issue that we'll need time to assess...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2012, 07:06:46 PM »

According to NPR, Gallup is switching to LV tomorrow.

Don't they already use LV?

No RV... I expect +5 to go to +2-3
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2012, 01:43:06 AM »
« Edited: October 09, 2012, 05:42:23 AM by Former President Polnut »

Unless Obama somehow manages to pull ahead on Ras tomorrow (which is plausible, but I expect the tie to hold), since I don't know how the Gallup LV screen will work, but I'm expecting either a tie or a +1 either side, Romney will take the lead on RCP tomorrow... and Obama's supporters are going to have to suck it up and keep working to get it back.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2012, 03:57:57 AM »

Um... is that Ohio number right?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2012, 09:37:05 PM »

I think they're probably waiting now until after the debate...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2012, 02:59:03 PM »

In the words of Nate Silver 'the polls have stopped making any sense... again'
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2012, 02:48:27 PM »

I do wonder if Gallup is falling back into its bad habits from 2010.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2012, 04:18:35 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 04:25:30 AM by Former President Polnut »

So basically.... nobody knows what the hell is going on. At least the polls are reflecting the community.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2012, 01:02:46 PM »

I really, really think (even if Obama loses) that Gallup will end up with egg on its face again.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2012, 06:18:11 PM »

Something to consider re: Gallup

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2012, 12:00:47 PM »

a) everyone calm down, we're talking about one set if state polls re:PPP
b) most expected a very small bump if anything
c) Obama IS in better shape than he was last week, but that process began before the debate
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2012, 09:41:08 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2012, 10:22:06 PM by Former President Polnut »

PPP Tracker - National

Obama - 49 (+1)
Romney - 47 ()
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2012, 10:21:40 PM »

Alright... so that's 3 of us who have put it in now...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2012, 10:44:10 PM »

PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2012, 12:31:47 AM »

I recall you wanting more info from PPP to see if Romney was surging in OH and WI before you were comfortable in your prediction?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2012, 04:27:45 PM »

Can someone confirm that ABC/WaPo only count the 'certain to vote', and don't include those who will 'probably vote'?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2012, 10:11:09 PM »

In what alternate universe did I say anything remotely like that? You're a delusional guy!

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.


Haha! You're a funny guy!

If there's block voting, its by nonwhite females. The Republican party is forced to look elsewhere due to this block voting.

Or you know... pursue policies that will attract them?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2012, 10:11:53 PM »

PPP Tracker

Obama - 48
Romney - 48
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2012, 11:06:03 PM »


It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.
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