National Tracking Poll Thread

[Umengus]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

In the last few years, many conservatives have shifted their ID from Republican to Independent. This leads both to a bigger margin for Dems and a bigger lead for Republicans among Is. It doesn't change the overall composition of the electorate on its own.

I'm starting to go insane with the incredible deja vu feeling of seeing this happen every single time poll numbers are posted. Thank goodness for you, man, because I don't have the patience to keep explaining to Umengus/Cliffy why they're wrong in every single freaking thread ever created regarding a poll.

You can ignore me if you don't like what I write...

[Likely Voter]

Umengus

Serious question. What is your point when you note party ID. Just noting the number is pointless, so what is your opinion of it? Are you noting how this poll has an interesting shift of enthusiasm from one to the other? Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?

otherwise what's the point of posting the number. Say what you believe.

[Cliffy]

Turnout won't be D+7, you think it will good for you.

Obama is not winning men by one either, no one shows this.

Romney is up by at least 2-3 right now and that's a very safe guess.  IBD is a joke,lol.

without the IBD poll romney is up big in the RCP.....

Just noticed that the IBD poll is 90% likely voter, lol that's precious.

and Obama is only down 1 pt in the south, that's highly believable???  Please hang your hopes on this poll.

The incredibly accurate IDB poll in 08
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/IBDTrackerTrend.php

[Marston]

PPP Tracker

October 19-21

Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 48%

No change.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered):  

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

The state polls do not agree with this sh*t. Tied race at best, but not Romney+7.

[J. J.]

Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered):  

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

The state polls do not agree with this sh*t. Tied race at best, but not Romney+7.

I doubt that it is at +7, but it does show momentum, as does the LV numbers.  It is Romney lead, at best.

[Umengus]

Umengus

Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?

that's it. Especially at national level where you know that you will not have a D+8 or R+8 election. And my guess for now is between D+0 and D+2

[Niemeyerite]

Umengus

Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?

that's it. Especially at national level where you know that you will not have a D+8 or R+8 election. And my guess for now is between D+0 and D+2

Exactly, that's YOUR guess. And you know nothing about US politics . When will you understand that polls call people randomly, and there are more democrats than republicans because many conservative (tea party) and moderate republicans (anti-tea party) consider themselves independents now?

[J. J.]

Rasmussen (Likely Voters):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

[Umengus]

Umengus

Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?

that's it. Especially at national level where you know that you will not have a D+8 or R+8 election. And my guess for now is between D+0 and D+2

Exactly, that's YOUR guess. And you know nothing about US politics . When will you understand that polls call people randomly, and there are more democrats than republicans because many conservative (tea party) and moderate republicans (anti-tea party) consider themselves independents now?

I'm on this forum for 9 years so I think that I know very well US politics.

Proof for the rest of your affirmation ?

[Likely Voter]

Monday Summary

PPP
Obama 48
Romney 48

Rasmussen
Obama 49
Romney 47

RAND (Rounded)
Obama 48
Romney 46

Gallup
Obama 45
Romney 51 (-1)

Reuters
Obama 46 (-1) [Change since Sat, Skipped reporting Sunday]
Romney 46

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 43 (+1)


Lead Summary
TIPP Obama +4 (R+2)
RAND Obama +2
PPP  TIE
Reuters* TIE (R+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +2
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.3 (R+0.3)

[Umengus]

Monday Summary

PPP
Obama 48
Romney 48

Rasmussen
Obama 49
Romney 47

RAND (Rounded)
Obama 48
Romney 46

Gallup
Obama 45
Romney 51 (-1)

Reuters
Obama 46 (-1) [Change since Sat, Skipped reporting Sunday]
Romney 46

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 43 (+1)


Lead Summary
TIPP Obama +4 (R+2)
RAND Obama +2
PPP  TIE
Reuters* TIE (R+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +2
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.3 (R+0.3)

thanks

[Eraserhead]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

[Cliffy]

Tipp has an outlier in there, course their body of work was terrible in 08, to small a samples. 

In your summary you have Obama up 2, should be romney.

[Brittain33]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

[J. J.]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

BUST!

Registered voters, and enthusiasm is down on the D side.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

BUST!

Registered voters, and enthusiasm is down on the D side.

Down compared to what?

[J. J.]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

BUST!

Registered voters, and enthusiasm is down on the D side.

Down compared to what?

2008 and to the other party.  Obama's Strongly Approve number has dropped 5-6 points in the past week. 

[Eraserhead]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

BUST!

Registered voters, and enthusiasm is down on the D side.

Down compared to what?

2008 and to the other party.  Obama's Strongly Approve number has dropped 5-6 points in the past week. 

Ya think?

[Lief 🗽]

Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

[J. J.]

Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney gained 2 points since their last one:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/index.html

[Lief 🗽]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney increasing by 2% is basically just float within the margin of error. And Obama is holding steady at 49%, enough to win re-election.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney gained 2 points since their last one:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/index.html

It's a tracking poll, so I'm not sure the methodology and sample size is the same as the national one. So it's kinda comparing apples to oranges.

[J. J.]

Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney gained 2 points since their last one:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/index.html

It's a tracking poll, so I'm not sure the methodology and sample size is the same as the national one. So it's kinda comparing apples to oranges.

They are including it, so am taking it as that, and using it as a baseline. 

[krazen1211]

PPP

Romney 49 (+1)
Obama 47 (-1)


Onward!