National Tracking Poll Thread

[ajb]

Still holding on Gallup with Romney 46, Obama 50.

Approval now at 48%, 46% disapprove.

Romney 44, Obama 50, that is.

[pa2011]

Was just going to say, I am surprised Gallup seems to have settled out with this consistent 6 point Obama lead.

[Reds4]

It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.

[J. J.]

Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.

They already did, silly.  It was in there on 9/19 to 9/22, then it dropped.  See the trends link on this page: 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[ajb]

Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.

They already did, silly.  It was in there on 9/19 to 9/22, then it dropped.  See the trends link on this page:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

So what's driving Obama's rise in the Rasmussen tracker now? Whatever it is, you must be expecting to see it reflected in Gallup sooner or later.

[J. J.]

It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.

You are probably seeing a strong pro Obama sample in there that was a reaction to the 47% comment.  That is why I was saying wait until Tuesday.  

The week the comment came out, Obama's weekly approval actually went down.  They just were not yet getting the reaction results as of that point (though Rasmussen had them).

[ajb]

It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.

You are probably seeing a strong pro Obama sample in there that was a reaction to the 47% comment.  That is why I was saying wait until Tuesday.  

The week the comment came out, Obama's weekly approval actually went down.  They just were not yet getting the reaction results as of that point (though Rasmussen had them).

I wouldn't read that much into Gallup's approval rating numbers, given that they're of adults, not of RV or of LV. And given that an average of 65 out of every 500 adults they poll every night is not an RV, there's plenty of room for the approval numbers to fluctuate in ways bearing no relationship to the horserace numbers.

[J. J.]

Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.

They already did, silly.  It was in there on 9/19 to 9/22, then it dropped.  See the trends link on this page:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

So what's driving Obama's rise in the Rasmussen tracker now? Whatever it is, you must be expecting to see it reflected in Gallup sooner or later.

Anything could be, including just statistical noise.  

No, the reason I was expecting a drop off on Gallup was because Romney went up on Gallup immediately after the comments.  It was obvious that the reaction samples were not yet a major component of the Gallup sample.

Gallup has a 6 day sample; Rasmussen has a 3 day sample.  Rasmussen records the changes more quickly than Gallup, but it is also be more influenced by a bad sample.  A bad sample will register for three days, then drop.  Rasmussen showed a clear shift, of more than three days, but there was nothing on Gallup.  It was obvious to someone with even an average understanding of polling that Gallup would jump when those numbers became a major part of the Gallup sample.

[Likely Voter]

RAND

Obama 50.27
Romney 43.23

It seems to have stabilized. If the Rand poll rounded like other polls, then Obama would have been at 50 with Romney at 44/43  for the last week.

[J. J.]

It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.

You are probably seeing a strong pro Obama sample in there that was a reaction to the 47% comment.  That is why I was saying wait until Tuesday.  

The week the comment came out, Obama's weekly approval actually went down.  They just were not yet getting the reaction results as of that point (though Rasmussen had them).

I wouldn't read that much into Gallup's approval rating numbers, given that they're of adults, not of RV or of LV. And given that an average of 65 out of every 500 adults they poll every night is not an RV, there's plenty of room for the approval numbers to fluctuate in ways bearing no relationship to the horserace numbers.

Gallup says that it is registered voters.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157709/obama-approval-vote-support-reach-better.aspx

[ajb]

The trial heat numbers are RV. The approval numbers are adults:

"Gallup tracks daily the percentage of Americans who approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. Daily results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,500 national adults; Margin of error is ±3 percentage points. "

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rasmussen - 30 Sept

without leaners
Obama: 48%
Romney: 46%

with leaners
Obama: 49%
Romney: 47%

[Tender Branson]

Obama opens a 5-point lead @ Rasmussen's swing state tracking today.

[Umengus]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

[afleitch]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

I'm glad he's finally admitted it.

[Niemeyerite]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Skewed!

[Umengus]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

I'm glad he's finally admitted it.

so not R+4...

[Tender Branson]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

[Tender Branson]

What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.

[ajb]

What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.

Kind of makes you wonder, right, why he weights for partisan ID, something almost no other pollster does, when he himself thinks that actual turnout in November will be quite different from his weightings.

[Eraserhead]

What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.

Kind of makes you wonder, right, why he weights for partisan ID, something almost no other pollster does, when he himself thinks that actual turnout in November will be quite different from his weightings.

Because he has to get on Fox News somehow.

[Tender Branson]

What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.

Kind of makes you wonder, right, why he weights for partisan ID, something almost no other pollster does, when he himself thinks that actual turnout in November will be quite different from his weightings.

Because he has a partisan agenda during the election season to produce favorable polls for GOP candidates to shape the narrative, but he also has a company to lead and clients to keep, so he has to "adjust" his numbers in the end not to look stupid.

[Umengus]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

[Tender Branson]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

Not really, if you take into account that more Republicans could vote for Obama in his poll than Democrats for Romney, and rounding issues.

[Umengus]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

Not really, if you take into account that more Republicans could vote for Obama in his poll than Democrats for Romney, and rounding issues.

it was the same...