National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

I think it will be ephemeral.

[Sbane]

I think it will be ephemeral.

Like most bounces are, but if Obama gets out of the conventions with a 2-3 point lead, that is a much stronger position than he was in before the conventions. This is due to the lack of big events remaining that can change the race. I know the debates are there, but the conventions were a good opportunity for Romney to at least get even with Obama.

[後援会]

There's a scenario people aren't considering. What if Romney generally wins independent and swing voters by a hefty margin and still loses the election, a scenario quite possible if Democratic turnout is reasonably high. If so, such an election might portend a structural Democratic majority. Which regardless of your personal political views, tend to produce governance that is not very good - as we can see from VRA districts.

[Sbane]

That is your personal political view, koenkai. Though maybe you have a point about districts that are way too partisan in one direction. Yes, corruption and igonorance does fester in these situations, but America would never become that Democratic. If there is corruption they would be voted out. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of a Republican wave in California soon....but the CA GOP might be too incompetent.

[Brittain33]

A big part of the Republican coalition of 2010 and 2008 was Democratic in the 1990s and liable to snap back to the Dems over their main issue: Medicare. I suspect that is what we may be seeing with Clinton's speech.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A big part of the Republican coalition of 2010 and 2008 was Democratic in the 1990s and liable to snap back to the Dems over their main issue: Medicare. I suspect that is what we may be seeing with Clinton's speech.

By 2008, the Republicans really didn't even have a coalition. All they had by then was 5 people screaming in front of the courthouse and calling up talk radio because things didn't go their way 100% of the time. Then in 2009 they added the tricorne hats.

[後援会]

If there is corruption they would be voted out. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of a Republican wave in California soon....but the CA GOP might be too incompetent.

That is tremendously unlikely. If there was any time for a Republican wave, it was 2010, where Democrats enhanced their legislative majorities and won every single statewide office. The CA GOP is actually a lot more effective than people give it credit for. They're actually not bad at recruitment, fundraising, and messaging. They're simply perhaps one of the most challenging position for almost any major political party in the West. Definitely giving Welsh Tories and Alberta Grits a run for their money.

California today is perhaps the best example of a structural Democratic majority. Even an extremely moderate, popular Republican (Cooley) could not defeat a relatively unpopular, far-left (more leftist than most of her party members) Democrat in a Republican landslide year for a not-so-politicized office (AG).

I don't think it's also a universal partisan trait. For example, Alberta is not a poorly run state at all. Japan, 1949-1993 wasn't fantastic, but it was decent enough. On the other hand, modern California...

[You kip if you want to...]

oh neat, Nate Silver did the math:

Viva la deluge!

The hilarious turn this election'd take if Obama started getting 10+ leads consistently.

The GOP's blame game would have begun by October.

[Earthling]

Gallup

Obama: 49% (nc)
Romney: 44 % (-1)

[Lief 🗽]

So this really doesn't make sense. At the same time, I don't think I can deny what the polls are saying. So regardless of whether Obama cruises to victory or loses narrowly, this election has already been freaky as hell. I am however, starting to suspect there is something seriously wrong with America. If this is a structural/demographic issue - that portends very poorly for the nation's future.

The simple fact is that the Republican Party is going to have moderate massively if they want to be competitive in national elections again. This election is basically their last chance to run on such a far-right agenda and still be able to eke out a victory by driving up their numbers with old white voters. By 2016 and 2020 especially they'll need to move considerably to the left if they want to win. There just aren't enough conservative, old, white voters anymore.

And this is a good thing, because Republican economic policies would return us the 19th century in the long-term and start another recession in the short term. 

[MorningInAmerica]

So, Romney drops a point today on Gallup, and Obama leads by 5 points, 49-44%. But Obama's approval rating drops two points, while his disapproval increases by 2 points, a net 4 point turn around from yesterday (50/44% vs. 52/42%), which is pretty large for a one day change.

Yesterday (saturday) was the first full day of polling including the poor economic news of Friday (which did play poorly on the news and in print, from what I could tell). Maybe that explains Obama's job rating drop.

Obama job rating today
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%

Obama job rating yesterday
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 42%

Jobs report may blunt the Obama bounce. And remember, this is with REGISTERED voters, which seems silly after both conventions. So much for all of you envisioning 10 point Obama leads.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Too bad PPP doesn't do national tracking. We could use some clarity, and I doubt they'd still be polling RV.

[Tender Branson]

Too bad PPP doesn't do national tracking. We could use some clarity, and I doubt they'd still be polling RV.

They are in the field for their weekly Kos poll right now and it shows a 2008-like margin.

[pa2011]

PPP tweeted it is releasing and Ohio poll tonight,  conducted Fri. Sat and today,  that will likely show Obama currently leads by a bigger margin in the Buckeye State than he won it by in 2008. Think he won Ohio by  5 points. Not so sure why this will be shocking, however. In the Politico article out today about Obama being in the drivers seat, anonoymous GOP strategists are quoted as saying even GOP tracking polls have  consistently shown Obama with a high single digit lead in Ohio.

[Sbane]

If there is corruption they would be voted out. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of a Republican wave in California soon....but the CA GOP might be too incompetent.

That is tremendously unlikely. If there was any time for a Republican wave, it was 2010, where Democrats enhanced their legislative majorities and won every single statewide office. The CA GOP is actually a lot more effective than people give it credit for. They're actually not bad at recruitment, fundraising, and messaging. They're simply perhaps one of the most challenging position for almost any major political party in the West. Definitely giving Welsh Tories and Alberta Grits a run for their money.

California today is perhaps the best example of a structural Democratic majority. Even an extremely moderate, popular Republican (Cooley) could not defeat a relatively unpopular, far-left (more leftist than most of her party members) Democrat in a Republican landslide year for a not-so-politicized office (AG).

I don't think it's also a universal partisan trait. For example, Alberta is not a poorly run state at all. Japan, 1949-1993 wasn't fantastic, but it was decent enough. On the other hand, modern California...

Schwarzenegger was a Republican so obviously there wouldn't be a GOP wave in California in 2010. And if you are talking about federal races, I don't think there is any chance of California going Republican in the near future. Tea party populism just doesn't work in the state.

I disagree the Republicans have good candidates here in California. Most Republicans just run as your standard conservative you would see elsewhere. One of the problems of course is that the Republicans in California tend to very conservative but independents have a left lean. Still, look at the votes on the measures reforming pensions in San Diego and San Jose. Don't tell me the GOP has no opportunity in California. But it's not going to be with a generic conservative, I can assure you of that.

[MorningInAmerica]

Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

[MorningInAmerica]

For those looking for the Reuters update, follow @steveholland1 on twitter. He's a Reuters reporter who often tweets the results before they get it into an article and update their site (though his feed looks a bit dead this weekend).

[Tender Branson]

Reuters/Ipsos (Sunday)

47-43 Obama (nc, nc)

Sunday's findings wrap up a series of daily rolling polls aimed at gauging sentiment during the two weeks of party conventions. For the survey, a sample of registered voters was interviewed online from Sept. 5-9.

[MorningInAmerica]

Where those 10 point leads, guys? Bounce may have stalled on Reuters, and Gallup shows ominous signs with the 4 point drop in Obama's net job approval.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Where those 10 point leads, guys? Bounce may have stalled on Reuters, and Gallup shows ominous signs with the 4 point drop in Obama's net job approval.

There is no 10 point bounce. But there was a large one. Much better than the Governor's.

[Lief 🗽]

So their tracking poll is over? That sucks.

[MorningInAmerica]

That's ridiculous. Only 2 of the 4 nights of the survey were conducted after Obama's speech, and only one after the August jobs report. That would be stupid to stop now. If they're going to stop, why not wait til Tuesday?

Edited to note that apparently Reuter's polls on the same day they release results, so 3 of the four days of the survey were conducted after Obama's speech, and 2 after the August jobs report.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Gallup also measures economic confidence and it's at it's highest since late May, so why did his approval take such a hit?

[MorningInAmerica]

Gallup also measures economic confidence and it's at it's highest since late May, so why did his approval take such a hit?

It may have something to do with the difference between polling on weekends vs. polling on weekdays. Or it could be the jobs report. If Obama continues to gain tomorrow and the approval recovers or stabilizes, I'd go with the former.

[Sbane]

I think the bounce may have peaked at Clinton's speech. I don't think Obama's speech helped, except maybe it increased the likelihood of some disillusioned Democrats turning up to vote.