National Tracking Poll Thread

[Sbane]

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack.

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

[J. J.]

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack.

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

[Likely Voter]

Reuters IPSOS

LV: tied  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (+2)

RV: Obama +1
Obama     43 (+1)
Romney     42 (+1)


1 week ago

LV: Obama +4  
Obama     46
Romney     42

RV: Obama +6
Obama     45
Romney     39

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Why is Gallup using registered voters? Makes no sense to me.

[Sbane]

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack.

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

There was a period from mid July to early August when there were multiple polls showing Obama close to replicating his winning margin from 2008. Also at the same time there were some very good polls for Obama in Ohio, including that Quinnipiac ones. During that time there was a lot of complaining about the polling going on....using basically the same excuses like partisan sampling not being current and what not. Do you really not remember that time, or are you willfully forgetting it to further your hack agenda?

[Eraserhead]

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack.

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-widens-lead-over-romney

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why is Gallup using registered voters? Makes no sense to me.

Makes perfect sense if your goal is to track changes in voter sentiment without having to worry about changing models mid-election.

[MorningInAmerica]

Why is Gallup using registered voters? Makes no sense to me.

Makes perfect sense if your goal is to track changes in voter sentiment without having to worry about changing models mid-election.

But why would that be a pollster's goal at this point? Shouldn't their goal be to use whatever survey model will most likely mimic the outcome of the election? And isn't a likely voter model more likely to do that than a registered voter model?

I don't know about everyone else, but I personally don't monitor polls to check their consistency with each other throughout time. I'm looking for the best predictor of the result in November.

[J. J.]

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack.

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-widens-lead-over-romney

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf

The worse was using registered voters and showed 9 points, which might have been an outlier. 

Even that one had Obama below 50% (barely).  Those were not "big," as was suggested.

It's been showing an election that looks close.  It still does.

[Eraserhead]

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack.

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-widens-lead-over-romney

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf

The worse was using registered voters and showed 9 points, which might have been an outlier. 

Even that one had Obama below 50% (barely).  Those were not "big," as was suggested.

It's been showing an election that looks close.  It still does.

You're laughable. How about you just admit that you were wrong for once?

[Beet]

He never will. A hack's a hack.

[J. J.]

You're laughable. How about you just admit that you were wrong for once?

Because these numbers never showed a great lead.  This has been close race so far.  On the whole, and there were outliers, the polls have been pretty good.

[Sbane]

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack.

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-widens-lead-over-romney

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf

The worse was using registered voters and showed 9 points, which might have been an outlier. 

Even that one had Obama below 50% (barely).  Those were not "big," as was suggested.

It's been showing an election that looks close.  It still does.

You're laughable. How about you just admit that you were wrong for once?

JJ is just being JJ. Let him be.

[Andrew1]

Did Ipsos/Reuters release their tracking poll for Monday 3rd? I can't find any reference on their website or twitter.

[You kip if you want to...]

Romney +2 on Rass.

This bounce is +1 at best...

[Dumbo]

Someone in this forum predicted Romney +5 / +7 for the beginning of this week ...

[Likely Voter]

Monday:

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +2  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     47 (-1)

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47
Romney     45

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47

[Sbane]

Is Gallup seriously showing a reverse bounce? Only 2 days of their 7 day sampling is before the convention started, correct?

[Tender Branson]

Did Ipsos/Reuters release their tracking poll for Monday 3rd? I can't find any reference on their website or twitter.

They'll probably continue today ...

[Likely Voter]

i posted it yesterday
 

Reuters IPSOS

LV: tied  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (+2)

RV: Obama +1
Obama     43 (+1)
Romney     42 (+1)


1 week ago

LV: Obama +4  
Obama     46
Romney     42

RV: Obama +6
Obama     45
Romney     39

keep track here
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/

[Andrew1]

i posted it yesterday

What was the source? There is nothing for Monday 3rd on their website, the most recent is Sunday, which was day 7 of their tracking poll.

[Likely Voter]

I guess you are right. that is the latest they have released.

Its unclear if this poll is going to go beyond the DNC. Maybe it doesn't even belong in this thread.

[Andrew1]

Tuesday's Ipsos poll is now on the Reuters website, with likely voters only:

LV: Romney +1
Romney 46% (+1)
Obama 45%

(Change from Sunday)

[MorningInAmerica]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/04/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8830YX20120904

Today's update:
Obama: 45% (-2)
Romney: 46% (+1)

So considering that Obama led on the Monday before the RNC 46-42%, this represents a NET 5 point gain for Romney. Only slighty smaller than Rasmussen's net 7 point gain.

[pa2011]

Gallup announced today that Romney joins John Kerry and George McGovern as the only presidential candidates in last 50 years to get NO bounce out of his convention.  Also, if you are willing to buy Rasmussen,  Romney lost 2 points today and now leads Obama by only 47 to 45. So seems Romney's Rasmussen "bounce" was very short lived.