National Tracking Poll Thread

[Tender Branson]

Obama opens a 5-point lead @ Rasmussen's swing state tracking today.

[Tender Branson]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

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So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

[Tender Branson]

What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.

[Tender Branson]

What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.

Kind of makes you wonder, right, why he weights for partisan ID, something almost no other pollster does, when he himself thinks that actual turnout in November will be quite different from his weightings.

Because he has a partisan agenda during the election season to produce favorable polls for GOP candidates to shape the narrative, but he also has a company to lead and clients to keep, so he has to "adjust" his numbers in the end not to look stupid.

[Tender Branson]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

Not really, if you take into account that more Republicans could vote for Obama in his poll than Democrats for Romney, and rounding issues.

[Tender Branson]

the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

Not really, if you take into account that more Republicans could vote for Obama in his poll than Democrats for Romney, and rounding issues.

it was the same...

How do you know ? Do you have Premium access ? If you have it, you know his party ID anyway. Or are you just guessing ?

[Tender Branson]

We all know that Rassy is going to do this.  It's what he always does.  R+x every week until mid-October and then starts doing real polls the final two weeks.  That way he can sell good polling to Republicans all cycle long and still call himself an accurate pollster on his resume.

Well, first, the comment was about Gallup.  Second, Rasmussen will be switching to likely voters leaners tomorrow.

Corrected the post for you.

[Tender Branson]

Swing States (Rasmussen):

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Beginning today, Rasmussen Reports is including “leaners” in the totals. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

[Tender Branson]

Gallup should start a 3-day likely voter model soon, instead of their 7-day RV tracker and adult approval tracker.

It's only 4 weeks until the election ...

[Tender Branson]

Yes, it was confirmed that Gallup will switch to LV today and show Obama/Romney tied, down from O+5 among their RV poll.

This will mean Romney is ahead for the first time in the RCP average.

[Tender Branson]

Who confirmed it'd be tied?

USA Today's Susan Page:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/likely_voter_screen_wipes_out_obama_lead_in_gallup_poll.html

[Tender Branson]

Who confirmed it'd be tied?

USA Today's Susan Page:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/likely_voter_screen_wipes_out_obama_lead_in_gallup_poll.html

I'm still holding out hope Obama's still up. Romney leading in the RCP average would be a massive psychological loss for Obama supporters everywhere. He hasn't done it in over a year.
Anyway, anyone got the latest RAND Poll results?

There's about a 90% chance Romney will lead on the RCP average later today, when they include the Gallup results and the Zogby poll which has it a tie. They probably throw out the older polls too and because Romney is ahead in the Pew poll by 4, he should lead by about 0.3-0.5% overall.

[Tender Branson]

DAY 1:

47-45 Romney

A key swing group making up nearly a third of voters, independents favor Romney over Obama 52%-34%. In 2008, Obama had a 52% to 44% edge among independents.

Polling period: 10/2 - 10/8
Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample Size: 797 likely voters (identified from 920 registered voters with party affiliation of 39% Dem, 31% GOP, 30% Ind.)

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

[Tender Branson]

It's a 6-day tracker though, with about 120 people each day.

And from Oct. 4 to Oct. 9 on this one.

So, Rasmussen and Gallup should have the more up-to-date numbers.

[Tender Branson]

IBD/TIPP (Day 3):

47% Romney (-2)
46% Obama (+2)

[Tender Branson]

IBD/TIPP is unchanged from yesterday, with Obama still leading by 0.7%.

Obama has slashed the Independent deficit from 25 (LOL) to 8 in the latest release ...

[Tender Branson]

Obama reverses a Romney-lead in the Rasmussen Swing State tracking poll and now leads:

50-47 (still pre-debate though)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

Romney leads 49-48 in the overall daily tracking poll (Obama gains 1% from yesterday's release).

[Tender Branson]

Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered):  

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

The state polls do not agree with this sh*t. Tied race at best, but not Romney+7.

[Tender Branson]

It was recorded as 50-46 yesterday

Correct. It was 50-46 in the previous 2 days:

http://www.argojournal.com/2012/10/poll-watch-rasmussen-r-2012-daily_25.html#more

[Tender Branson]

Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos Reuters (Oct. 27):

47% Obama (+1)
45% Romney (nc)

The survey was conducted October 23-27. It sampled 1,665 registered voters and 1,291 likely voters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/27/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121027

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos/Reuters:

49-46 Obama

1% gain for Obama compared with yesterday.