National Tracking Poll Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 309724 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #50 on: September 07, 2012, 12:30:10 AM »
I've also merged the Ipsos Tracker with this thread now.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #51 on: September 07, 2012, 12:58:41 AM »
Quote
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?

When they started there were more Democrats in the sample, now there are much less.

Also, Obama is 1 point ahead among Independents in the latest tracking release.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #52 on: September 07, 2012, 08:55:27 AM »
Quote from: MorningInAmerica on September 07, 2012, 08:45:11 AM
Rasmussen is showing the beginnings of a bump, with 2/3 nights in the survey coming after the Michelle and Clinton speeches.

No. 2/3 of the interviews were done before Clinton spoke, as Rasmussen says in their release.

Which makes sense, because pollsters interview up until 9pm usually and Clinton spoke after that.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #53 on: September 07, 2012, 01:49:58 PM »
Obama will open up a lead of up to 5-7 points in the coming days on Gallup.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #54 on: September 08, 2012, 11:27:08 AM »
Rassy today:

46% Obama (+1)
44% Romney (-2)

Of course, only 1/3 of the interviews were taken after the Obama speech and 2/3 after Clinton.

Also from Rassy's release:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #55 on: September 08, 2012, 11:31:37 AM »
Nate Silver says:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #56 on: September 08, 2012, 12:07:17 PM »

Easily. Maybe already tomorrow, if not, then Monday or Tuesday. Because there's quite a lag in Gallup's 7-day tracker. Only 2 out of 7 days (THU/FRI) so far have been after Clinton spoke. Clinton of course spoke on WED, but the interviews typically end at 9pm and he spoke after that.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #57 on: September 08, 2012, 12:13:32 PM »
Assuming that Obama led by about 1% in the first 5 days (which is what Gallup showed) and now he's 4% ahead with 2 more nights in, this would yield a lead of about 8% in the previous 2 nights alone.

1+1+1+1+1+8+8 = 21/7 = 3% lead

But actually, he's ahead by 4 today, which means that either he led by more than 1% in the first 5 nights or he led by about 10% in the past 2 days.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #58 on: September 08, 2012, 12:28:17 PM »
This election looks so ridiculously 2004-like polling-technically, it's almost unbelievable:



Kerry got a VP bounce from Edwards, like Romney with Ryan.

Kerry almost got no convention bounce, like Romney.

Bush got a huge convention bounce from which Kerry never really fully recovered from.

Obama is currently on the way to build a big bounce as well ... but ... will Romney recover and win ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #59 on: September 08, 2012, 12:39:23 PM »
I think the Obama campaign should just air that Romney-singing-ad once again in the final week in all swing states for 50 Million $ and he could have the election in his pocket.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #60 on: September 09, 2012, 04:03:50 AM »
WTF is RAND ?

Is Rand Paul now having his own tracking poll ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #61 on: September 09, 2012, 08:33:30 AM »
Rasmussen (Sunday)Sad

49-45 Obama (+3, +1)

52-47 Approve (+3, -3)

A 4-point Rasmussen lead is about equivalent to a 10-point lead in other polls ... Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #62 on: September 09, 2012, 08:41:23 AM »
So, this represents already a 7-point bounce @ Rasmussen from -3 to +4 in the last 5 or so days.

It seems the people who predicted a 5-10% Obama bounce here were correct.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #63 on: September 09, 2012, 08:51:29 AM »
More from the Rasmussen release:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #64 on: September 09, 2012, 12:32:42 PM »
Quote from: ShadowOfTheWave on September 09, 2012, 12:30:51 PM
Too bad PPP doesn't do national tracking. We could use some clarity, and I doubt they'd still be polling RV.

They are in the field for their weekly Kos poll right now and it shows a 2008-like margin.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #65 on: September 09, 2012, 02:41:52 PM »
Reuters/Ipsos (Sunday)Sad

47-43 Obama (nc, nc)

Sunday's findings wrap up a series of daily rolling polls aimed at gauging sentiment during the two weeks of party conventions. For the survey, a sample of registered voters was interviewed online from Sept. 5-9.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #66 on: September 11, 2012, 01:10:57 PM »
This looks pretty much like 2008, just without the financial crash. So, basically 2004, just with Obama as Bush.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #67 on: September 14, 2012, 12:03:45 AM »
Here is the release:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88B0IG20120913

Obama+6 among RV, but +7 among LV.

This has been a trend recently. Obama ahead by more among LV than among RV. Sign that Democrats are more likely to turn out than Republicans ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #68 on: September 16, 2012, 12:03:26 PM »
Rasmussen: 49-48 Obama

Gallup: 48-45 Obama
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #69 on: September 18, 2012, 01:20:39 PM »
It's actually 48-48 today on Rasmussen with leaners.

Don't know why RCP refuses to post these leaner numbers instead of the leaner-less numbers.

Maybe because Romney is ahead with the latter and it's a tie with the former ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #70 on: September 20, 2012, 02:12:04 PM »
Reuters/Ipsos remains at Obama+5 today:

48-43 Obama

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/20/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88I1E920120920?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

Which probably means that Gallup has a bad pro-Romney sample inside their numbers.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #71 on: September 26, 2012, 10:44:12 AM »
Ahh, our daily dose of Rasmussen-trolling. Cute.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #72 on: September 26, 2012, 11:45:54 AM »
Ipsos/Reuters:

49-42 Obama (LV)
48-39 Obama (RV)

Interview dates: Sept 21-25, 2012
Base: 1,340 registered voters (RV)
Base for Voting Intention: 1,122 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12012

YouGov/Economist:

48-43 Obama (RV)

Conducted September 22-24, 2012
Margin of Error: +/- 4.7%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dqvatpi3fj/econToplines.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #73 on: September 26, 2012, 12:06:15 PM »
Considering their 7-day tracker, a HUGE Obama sample must have come in yesterday or so.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #74 on: September 27, 2012, 02:34:42 PM »
Ipsos remains at 49-42 today:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/27/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88Q1JB20120927
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