National Tracking Poll Thread

[Cliffy]

Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.

[Cliffy]

It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

So then why does Scott even bother to take the extra step of picking up the phone when his weighing system produces the result no matter what?

He has an ongoing monthly survey that surveys the breakdowns of the electorate by party id.  He then weights his polls by party ID, however he's showing R+1 or better in the survey yet he's still weighting to D+3.

Why? I don't know, he seems to be playing it pretty safe.  Gallup is also showing R+2 but they seem to be closer to their weighting. 

[Cliffy]

Lol,

48.56 for Obama and 48.49 for Romney

Wheeeeew..... .07

Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

[Cliffy]

How much is the Romney campaign missing the Gallup poll right now?

I doubt they worry too much about all the public polls too much.  They have better ones.

[Cliffy]

Obama's nationwide surge continues, with new numbers from PPP's tracker!

Obama 49 (+1)
Romney 48 (-1)

Ah and Romney's only down 3 with women.  If so, definitely going to be a landslide.

[Cliffy]

point made, neither are believable. At least they're consistent.

[Cliffy]

What's a matter no one is happy about the ABC/WA PO post Today, Romney went up 1.  So did Obama's bumpy fade?

[Cliffy]

PPP

Obama-49
Romney-48

Obama now leads with Independents 50/44

and yet it's move further to D+7 and he's up 1? and independents?  pretty screwy.

[Cliffy]

PPP

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf

This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 , at least they are coming down to earth a little.

[Cliffy]

Rasmussen's party affiliation for October R+5.8 Wow!

Believe he was very close the last two elections, if this is even 0, Obama's toast.  D+3 or less and Romney likely wins

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

[Cliffy]

If Romney can only mange a +1 in an R+5 then he is going to get blown out.

Ummm no, because as we've been hearing over and over from the much touted liberal pollsters the turnout is going to be along the lines of 2008 (d+7) or better.  With those numbers Obama can't even get to 50% or much above 47% and it's tied in a lot of the polls.  So we're talking a  13 point difference.  If Romney gets D+1 he most certainly wins.

[Cliffy]

Year Rasmussen Actual
2004 D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2) D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)
2008 D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3) D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)
2012 R +5.8 (Dem 33.3, Rep 39.1) ??