National Tracking Poll Thread

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.

Not feigned outrage. 

I think it perfectly reasonable to look at demographic groups and cheer when your side's demographic group turns out, or more strongly moves to your candidate.

I think it is the worst hypocrisy to assign a racist reason when the other side does the same thing.   

....you've completely and utterly missed my point. You've ignored the specific poster's past contributions... analysis of the demographics is fine, but this is NOT what he's doing.

It's sad you don't understand nuance, and with that.... good evening.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You know what? We're going to know who was right and who was wrong in just over a week... It's such a pointless exercise. Arguing about this stuff doesn't make a tinkers cuss worth of difference.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The one tracker I've been secretly watching since they began is Reuters, primarily because they were the ONLY tracker in 2010 to get it right.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Where's ABC/WaPO daily tracker?

Was it a good day for Romney

Considering that's been the only non-Gallup/Ras tracker to be consistently more friendly for Romney I would suggest not resorting to

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama's approvals have been consistently much lower than the consensus number, in PPP, for what it's worth.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

RAND is a novelty this season, we'll see how it turns out in the wash.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wonder if WaPo is still using the strictest LV screen out there... and also can you confirm D+6 in the actual poll post? Despite the fact that party ID is going to be THE straw man of this election...

Considering your "reporting" on the OH poll was wrong...

Interesting in Ras also, (despite his playing with party weighting), Romney getting 90% of GOPers and Obama getting only 86% of Dems? (I suppose that's an increase from 82%!?!? a couple of days ago)... so considering Obama's going to get about 90% of Democrats... even with his generous weighting, O-R would be... you guessed it, tied.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.

Considering the portion of 'Independents' that were GOPers in 2008, don't get too excited.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.

Yaaaay!!!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is lying too strong a word? I think the methodologies are just too varied and are having a hard time keeping up with changes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

Yes, pretty much.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

He's not being crushed at the levels necessary to explain the state of national polling. Even with the large swings against him in the traditionally anti-incumbent plains, the combination of demographic shifts/the last white Democrats ditching the party in the South and the sizeable swings in the Northeast, Obama is around 1-2 points ahead.

Color me skeptical.

It still don't get how it's close with Obama's approvals THAT underwater (as in weirdly out)...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just noticed that the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Obama+1 has Obama+10 in RV (51/41). Now that is a serious LV screen!
http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12137

Ah... ha?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

None of the trackers, but WaPo was close to that if I remember correctly... There was one... I don't remember now who by, but about 6 weeks ago that had a 10% LV/RV gap

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's often what happens in 'incumbent' elections, but not always, each side perceives the election differently. For example every challenger sees the election as a change election, so their supporters are more ethusiastic and have a purpose. The incumbents supporters aren't normally as driven, so take longer to engage.

I've argued that over-weighting the enthusiasm is a mistake, largely because (and this is only anecdotal) if the incumbent has positive approvals and the public like him, the likelihood of his base and associated voters abandoning him is low... not impossible, but low. Incumbents usually, with the exception of 1976 (but I generally treat that election a little separately), get thrown out of office in a wave. I, speaking with as much objectivity as I can muster, don't see ANY evidence of a wave.