National Tracking Poll Thread

[Tender Branson]

In Rasmussenfantasyworld, Romney now leads Obama by 45-39 ...

Also, new IA poll out in a few hours.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen once again made their tracking sample more Republican-leaning:

It's now 35.9% GOP, 32.5% DEM and 31.6% IND.

And that's among ADULTS surveyed. Their LV tracking model is even more Republican.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

[Tender Branson]

Obama opens up a 10-point lead against Romney:

50-40

"This is the largest lead the president has enjoyed against Romney in regular polling going back more than a year. It’s also the first time that the president has reached the 50% level of support against Romney."

And Obama leads Santorum by 4:

46-42

"Last week, Santorum had a one-point advantage over Obama. However, like Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich before him, Santorum was unable to sustain that advantage beyond a single poll."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Tender Branson]

Both Romney and Santorum now trail Obama by 48-41.

[Tender Branson]

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I remember that Romney and Santorum were down by 6-8 about 3 days ago.

Either a HUGE Super Tuesday BOUNCE for both of them, or WHACKO SCOTTY TROLLING.

I believe it's the latter.

[Tender Branson]

Rowan, I've merged the 2 threads (Rasmussen and Gallup) and re-named it " National Tracking Poll Thread", because in the future there will be other tracking polls as well that we can put in here.

But for now, please post the Rasmussen and Gallup stuff in here if you like.

[Tender Branson]

Good God. Remember their "traditional"/"expanded" fiasco in 2008?

Yeah, not only in 2008, also in 2010.

Remember when they had about 3 different models to forecast the "generic GOP lead" - one of them even had the GOP winning Congress by about 18 (they actually won by 6).

Gallup is just a crack pollster to me sometimes.

[Tender Branson]

Romney leads 47-45, per Gallup. Didn't see it posted on here.

That's the first time since last September that Romney has led in 3 consecutive polls.

[Tender Branson]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney earning 50% of the vote and President Obama attracting 43% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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[Tender Branson]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney earning 50% of the vote and President Obama attracting 43% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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No update today because of Mothers Day.

[Tender Branson]

Romney's numbers @ Rasmussen drop to the lowest point since March:

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[Tender Branson]

This will be a tracking poll:

46-42 Obama (Likely Voters)

45-39 Obama (Registered Voters)

...

Interview dates: August 24-27, 2012
Base: 857 registered voters (RV)
Base: 433 RV Democrats, 369 RV Republicans, 128 RV Independents
Base: 749 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11899

[Tender Branson]

DAY 2:

(Reuters) - Republican Mitt Romney edged closer to President Barack Obama in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll on Tuesday as he mounts a sustained effort this week to sell himself and his vision for U.S. economic recovery at the Republican National Convention.

In a four-day rolling poll, Obama led Romney by two percentage points among likely voters, 45 percent to 43 percent. That was a slight narrowing of the gap from results of the rolling poll on Monday when Obama was ahead by four points.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/us-usa-campaign-poll-obama-idINBRE87R17B20120828

[Tender Branson]

DAY 3:

(Reuters) - Republican Mitt Romney pulled even with President Barack Obama in a Reuters/Ipsos poll on Wednesday, getting a boost from his party's nominating convention in Tampa this week.

In a four-day rolling poll, Romney and Obama were deadlocked among likely voters at 43 percent each. That was an improvement for Romney from Obama's two-point lead on Tuesday and four-point lead on Monday.

"There is movement toward Romney, which is traditional for a convention," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said. "It's small and the change is incremental, but it's been moving the last couple of days."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87S18U20120829

[Tender Branson]

In 2008, according to the RCP chart, the full bounce only showed up a few days after the conventions ended. So, the trackers should pick up the full GOP bounce by Tuesday next week and the Tuesday after that for the Democrats.

[Tender Branson]

The original poll must have been a little too pro-Obama, because I'm not sure if enough happened in the first two nights to change this race from +4 Obama to a tie. If the first two nights actually changed things that much (I don't think it did), Obama's in a heap of trouble.

Maybe Romney will lead by 5 in this tracker after they have finished their polling.

With 3 additional points coming from Ryan and 2 points from Romney.

[Tender Branson]

So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen made their sample quite Republican-leaning for August, showing a sudden jump in Republicans in the US to record levels:

August results: 37.6% GOP 33.3% DEM 29.2% IND / GOP+4.3

July results: 34.9% GOP 34.0% DEM 31.1% IND / GOP+0.9

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

For their Daily Tracker, Rasmussen uses the average party ID for the past 3 months (currently GOP+2.2), which is among all ADULTS. Their tracker is of likely voters though, which is even more Republican.

[Tender Branson]

So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250

[Tender Branson]

Obama regains the lead! We can only hope that John Ker... err Mitt Romney keeps bouncing like this!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120901

Obama 44%
Romney 43%

I actually thought Romney would end the convention with a 5-point lead, but this is much better.

But still, their Independent breakdowns are nuts. Obama/Romney are tied at 27% (!!!) among Indies, with the rest voting for someone else or undecided. Probably hijacked by Gary Johnson and Ron Paul people, since its an Internet poll.

[Tender Branson]

The 'bots seem to be capturing something; Romney's up by 4.

I doubt it will last.

By "'bots" do you mean "only Rasmussen"?

Ro(mney)bot = Rasmussen

[Tender Branson]

Did Ipsos/Reuters release their tracking poll for Monday 3rd? I can't find any reference on their website or twitter.

They'll probably continue today ...

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is still 47-46 Obama. This doesn't move at all ...

[Tender Branson]

Day 10 update (Wednesday)

Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 45% (-)

On Monday before the RNC, Obama led 46-42%.

No link yet. It was just tweeted by a Reuters reporter.

It's actually -1 for both of them.

[Tender Branson]

The Obama-bounce will not show up fully until next Tuesday or Wednesday, when people read about the convention or saw it on TV over the weekend. Because now they have to work.

And keep in mind that in the trackers, Clinton's speech was not yet covered. Interviewing takes place usually from 4pm to 9pm and Clinton spoke after that.