National Tracking Poll Thread
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 308299 times)
Umengus
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« Reply #1850 on: November 04, 2012, 01:01:14 PM »

There seems to be more coalescing between the polls. The difference between the best Obama and Best Romney polls was up to 11 points last Sunday. Tomorrow Gallup returns to the fold. Their last poll was Romney so maybe they will return us to more divergence. My bet is they will be closer to a tie +/-2.

Sunday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (-)                  [R+4]
PPP:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+4]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)                   [O+3]
Zogby:         TIED            (R+3)             [new]
ABC:            TIED            (O+1)             [O+2]

Average: Obama +1.2 (-) [O +0.5]


UPI:        (no poll)
TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)




thank

it seems to me that abc was tied yesterday and zogby is R +2 and not R+3 Wink
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1851 on: November 04, 2012, 05:26:42 PM »

WAPO

Obama-49
Romney-48

Another, potential important edge for Obama is on enthusiasm. With just two days to go, 69 percent of his supporters call themselves “very enthusiastic,” compared with 62 percent of Romney’s. Enthusiasm for both candidates has increased sharply over the course of the campaign.

Enthusiasm gap my ass..........
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J. J.
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« Reply #1852 on: November 04, 2012, 05:34:02 PM »

WAPO

Obama-49
Romney-48

Another, potential important edge for Obama is on enthusiasm. With just two days to go, 69 percent of his supporters call themselves “very enthusiastic,” compared with 62 percent of Romney’s. Enthusiasm for both candidates has increased sharply over the course of the campaign.

Enthusiasm gap my ass..........

Just look at the early voters and Rasmussens "Strongly Approve."  Enthusism is increasing, but it is doing so equally. 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #1853 on: November 04, 2012, 05:49:00 PM »

Sunday Summary [UPDATE]

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (-)                  [R+4]
PPP:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+4]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]
UPI:             Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]
ABC:            Obama +1   (O+1)             [O+2]
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)                   [O+3]
Zogby:         TIED            (R+2)             [new]

Average: Obama +1.3 (O +0.1) [O +0.6]


TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)

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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #1854 on: November 04, 2012, 06:37:14 PM »

So the only national poll Romney now leads in is Zogby? LOL
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Fargobison
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« Reply #1855 on: November 04, 2012, 10:30:54 PM »

PPP

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1856 on: November 04, 2012, 10:33:53 PM »

Good stuff.

-Obama's national favorability is 50/47, Romney's is 47/48.
-Most noteworthy on the national tracking poll- Obama leads 49/41 with independents now.
-Another key for Obama nationally- down only 57/41 with white voters. Romney needs to win them by 20+.

Hurricane Sandy may have been more important then I realize.
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pepper11
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« Reply #1857 on: November 04, 2012, 10:37:17 PM »


You do realize this poll shows Romney narrowing the gap right? Not sure how that is good news for ya.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1858 on: November 04, 2012, 10:40:19 PM »


You do realize this poll shows Romney narrowing the gap right? Not sure how that is good news for ya.

Obama remains steady at 50%......that is good news.
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pepper11
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« Reply #1859 on: November 04, 2012, 10:44:08 PM »


You do realize this poll shows Romney narrowing the gap right? Not sure how that is good news for ya.

Obama remains steady at 50%......that is good news.

OK Smiley. Fair point, I'd rather it be flipped. Still not sure it is great news for the prez.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #1860 on: November 04, 2012, 11:13:44 PM »

Look like Obama might hit his magic number with white people.  Unbelievable.  We've come a long way since this

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Cliffy
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« Reply #1861 on: November 04, 2012, 11:36:09 PM »


This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 Roll Eyes, at least they are coming down to earth a little.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1862 on: November 05, 2012, 12:21:45 AM »


This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 Roll Eyes, at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1863 on: November 05, 2012, 07:50:27 AM »


This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 Roll Eyes, at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.

Both of those numbers seem high, compared to the rest of the polls. 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1864 on: November 05, 2012, 07:52:53 AM »


This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 Roll Eyes, at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.

Both of those numbers seem high, compared to the rest of the polls. 

Indeed.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1865 on: November 05, 2012, 07:56:59 AM »


This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 Roll Eyes, at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.

Both of those numbers seem high, compared to the rest of the polls. 

Indeed.

You could get that in some places (especially in PA), but not nationally.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1866 on: November 05, 2012, 07:58:49 AM »


This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 Roll Eyes, at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.

Both of those numbers seem high, compared to the rest of the polls. 

Their own party I.D model; i.e who they allocate to 'Dem' 'Rep' etc is more sensitive than most polls. For example they had Dems at 41 and Reps at 39 which is higher than most other surveys who when pulled on average have the Dems at about 34 and the Reps at 27 (going by Pollsters data). Therefore their Dem and Rep identifiers contain a large number of people who would be labelled 'Independent' in other polls. As a result PPP's sub-samples tend to show larger numbers of Dems and Reps who would vote for the other side than you find elsewhere.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1867 on: November 05, 2012, 08:38:02 AM »

RCP are saying that Rassmussen has Romney +1 - 49-48
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #1868 on: November 05, 2012, 08:45:24 AM »

You really have to question Scott Rasmussens motives when he is leaking poll results to Matt Drudge, right wing kingmaker. This is not the same Scott Rasmussen four years or eight years ago. He is now a bought and paid for operative for the right wing, who provides the conservative narratives that Drudge and Fox News run with. While the race is within the margin of error, Fox News now has a narrative to drive on the last day of the campaign. It's really a shame how money and influence could corrupt such an outstanding pollster.
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Franzl
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« Reply #1869 on: November 05, 2012, 08:46:16 AM »

Romney seems to be re-gaining a tad in national polling.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1870 on: November 05, 2012, 08:48:19 AM »

RCP are saying that Rassmussen has Romney +1 - 49-48

It is not up on his website.

You really have to question Scott Rasmussens motives when he is leaking poll results to Matt Drudge, right wing kingmaker. This is not the same Scott Rasmussen four years or eight years ago. He is now a bought and paid for operative for the right wing, who provides the conservative narratives that Drudge and Fox News run with. While the race is within the margin of error, Fox News now has a narrative to drive on the last day of the campaign. It's really a shame how money and influence could corrupt such an outstanding pollster.

You could say the same about PPP.  I wouldn't say that in either case.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1871 on: November 05, 2012, 08:51:56 AM »

Drudge's headline is hilarious right now.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1872 on: November 05, 2012, 08:53:49 AM »

Romney seems to be re-gaining a tad in national polling.

On what basis? He's up 1 in Rasmussen. The last national poll released that had Romney ahead was Rasmussens poll of Romney up 2.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #1873 on: November 05, 2012, 08:56:28 AM »

RCP are saying that Rassmussen has Romney +1 - 49-48

It is not up on his website.

You really have to question Scott Rasmussens motives when he is leaking poll results to Matt Drudge, right wing kingmaker. This is not the same Scott Rasmussen four years or eight years ago. He is now a bought and paid for operative for the right wing, who provides the conservative narratives that Drudge and Fox News run with. While the race is within the margin of error, Fox News now has a narrative to drive on the last day of the campaign. It's really a shame how money and influence could corrupt such an outstanding pollster.

You could say the same about PPP.  I wouldn't say that in either case.

No, you couldn't say the same about PPP. PPP doesn't leak their results to say, MSNBC, in order to drive a narrative to fluff up their candidate. MSNBC also doesn't give a paycheck to any member of PPP.

You do realize what a conflict of interest it is that Scott Rasmussen, an "independent pollster", receives a paycheck from the kingmaker of the GOP, Fox news?

The false equivalency doesn't work here. While PPP's staff may be Democrats, there is zero evidence to suggest that they are influenced in any way by any left wing media outlets.
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Franzl
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« Reply #1874 on: November 05, 2012, 09:02:42 AM »

Romney seems to be re-gaining a tad in national polling.

On what basis? He's up 1 in Rasmussen. The last national poll released that had Romney ahead was Rasmussens poll of Romney up 2.

PPP also went from +3 to +2, didn't they?
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