National Tracking Poll Thread

[Oakvale]

I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...

Can't argue with that.

Why is your username "Merry Christmas, America" on October 31st?

[Lief 🗽]

I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...

Can't argue with that.

Why is your username "Merry Christmas, America" on October 31st?

It's Halloween, so Christmas Season has begun!

[cinyc]

Gallup resumes polling tomorrow.

[Likely Voter]

So Sandy is giving Gallup a reset with a whole new set of data. With most polls showing a national tie-ish, will they be back to Romney+5 (their last poll), or will it suddenly revert to the match other pollsters? We will find out on Monday.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup resumes polling tomorrow.

Well, that's unfortunate.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Gallup resumes polling tomorrow.

Well, that's unfortunate.

Meh, just take their polls, and all polls, with a grain of salt.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen (LV):

Romney:  49

Obama:  47

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen has been stuck at 49-47 for a while now.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen has been stuck at 49-47 for a while now.

They tout their stability. 

[opebo]

I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done. 

Doesn't matter if 'nothing gets done', the next four years will be cyclical boom, plummeting deficits and steadily declining unemployment.  Recipe for either 1) happy second term for Obama, or 2) fairly easy re-election for the Cuckoo.

[Franzl]

I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done. 

Doesn't matter if 'nothing gets done', the next four years will be cyclical boom, plummeting deficits and steadily declining unemployment.  Recipe for either 1) happy second term for Obama, or 2) fairly easy re-election for the Cuckoo.

It would be extremely painful to see Romney to take credit for that.

[ajb]

Rasmussen has been stuck at 49-47 for a while now.

They tout their stability. 

Indeed, Scott Rasmussen has argued that Romney did not actually receive much of a bounce from the first debate -- that instead an always-close race shifted a point or two in Romney's direction. His methodology doesn't allow, for example, for an event like Romney's success in the first debate to get Republicans more excited about voting.

[Lief 🗽]

Reuters/Ipsos is also still stuck at Obama 47-46.

[Skill and Chance]

I do think there is evidence of a small shift toward Obama.  Keep in mind that national numbers will under-represent the Northeast for the remainder of the campaign, and it is probably statistically significant.

[Umengus]

I thnk that there is a little bump for Obama due to the storm.

[Lief 🗽]

THE HURRICANE SANDY BUMP HAS BEGUN (says RAND):

Obama 50%
Romney 45% (-1)

[afleitch]

Gallup will not be releasing polls again until Monday.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Gallup will not be releasing polls again until Monday.

That poll will probably be the final poll since it is Election Day Eve.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

[Skill and Chance]

Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

Movement toward Obama with NYC off the grid in the heart of the poll is pretty noteworthy.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

[Skill and Chance]

Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

Movement toward Obama with NYC going off the grid in the heart of the poll is pretty noteworthy.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland. Obama might have a chance at putting Indiana and Missouri back into play now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland.

You've got to be joking.

[Likely Voter]

Thursday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +5  (O+1)      [O+1]
Reuters:      Obama +1  (-)           [O+2]  
ABC:            Obama +1  (O+1)     [O+4]
UPI:             TIED           (-)           [R+2]  
Zogby:         TIED           (O+3)     [new]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (-)          [O+1]

Average: Obama +0.7(O+0.7) [O+0.9]

TIPP:      (no poll)  
PPP:       (no poll)
Gallup:    (no poll)