2011 French Senate Election

[big bad fab]

BTW, another big victory for the left tonight:

Bernadette Chirac has been reelected general counsellor in Corrèze, in the first round, with 60.81% !

Hollande is really a very big tactician

[MaxQue]

I'm still shocked by results in Lozère, Loiret, Manche and especially Morbihan.

You mean Indre-et-Loire ? or Loire ? or Loir-et-Cher ?

Morbihan is a perfect example of the French right, which was once called "the stupidest right in the world", for its ability to kill herself by divisions.
And its inability to push new faces...

But Paris, Seine-et-Marne (brilliant Jégo !!!) and Hauts-de-Seine are "great" examples too...

In Loir-et-Cher, the MoDem has clearly killed Leroy...

In Manche, Valentin was a real bad candidate: a nasty guy, prone to shenanigans and proud of himself.

Loiret. I didn't thought than Sueur could save his seat so easily. Loir-et-Cher is not surprising, Leroy was campaigning in a way which let people see than he was worried. Indre-et-Loire isn't surprising, I suspected a good night for left would lead to 3-0. The margin is impressing the Loire, but 3-1 isn't so much given than the right had dreadful results there in 2008.

There was no divisions in Morbihan.

No OPEN divisions, sure
Believe me, the right in Morbihan is full of infightings, with a former hysteric Villepinist (Goulard), a stupid young hopeful (Guéant's son), old barons with weird habits (Rohan), too kind moderates (Kerguéris), many disappointed rural mayors, etc.
A real mess, with no real hope for the future.
A right from the Prehistoric Ages

Well, I think Morbihan is going the way of the rest of the Bretagne. Becoming a place with a Socialist lean.

No reason why, but, it is like that, I think.

[big bad fab]

Sure, but divisions hasten things.

All the coast is more and more "bobo" and with people who are ready to vote for centre-left or even Greens (even if their houses are built on natural areas ).
And rural areas are desperate and disappointed by the right.

Morbihan, like Mayenne (yep !) or Calvados (it's almost done there), are the next departments to fall in favour of the left.

[MaxQue]

Sure, but divisions hasten things.

All the coast is more and more "bobo" and with people who are ready to vote for centre-left or even Greens (even if their houses are built on natural areas ).
And rural areas are desperate and disappointed by the right.

Morbihan, like Mayenne (yep !) or Calvados (it's almost done there), are the next departments to fall in favour of the left.

So, my theory than I exposed during Cantonales (than the former north/south divide will become an west/east divide) may realize?

[greenforest32]

I like how France and Germany are moving left. Why aren't more European countries following suit?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Time for some maps !


Net results (ie difference between # of left and right seats) :




Net gain for the left :




Please be nice, as these are my first election maps. I'll add Outre-Mer tomorrow (if I have the time).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like how France and Germany are moving left. Why aren't more European countries following suit?

What about Italy and Denmark ?

[greenforest32]

I like how France and Germany are moving left. Why aren't more European countries following suit?

What about Italy and Denmark ?

That's true. I guess I'm still mad about Hungary and the UK's last elections

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't be such a jinx Lewis. I know the French left has blown a lot of opportunities in the past, but they certainly would achieve significant changes if the win in 2012.

There's a difference between having the technical ability to make major changes and actually making major changes. After the 1981 elections Mitterrand had one of the largest parliamentary majorities for any Left government in European history (might it actually have been the largest? Just under 68% of seats, so bigger than 1945 or 1997 in Britain. And most other countries have some form of PR) and while there were certainly many welcome and long-overdue reforms...

I mean, does the PS have anything really radical hiding up their collective sleeves? From the outside they seem to have spent most of the past decade warring amongst themselves (with conflicts based more on personality than ideology) rather than on anything more productive. I may be mistaken in this and hope that I am, of course.

Mind you, the act of removing Sarkozy would count as a major victory even if the ensuing government turned out to be as much of a trainwreck as Mitterrand's second term.

[Hash]

My preliminary count assuming my guesses on the 3 uncalled Guadeloupe/Martinique seats are correct:

176 - 172

By the narrowest of margins, the left has it.

By party:
UMP 126
PS 121
PCF-PCR 21
NC 12
PRG 12
DVG 11
Greenies 10
DVD 8
AC 7
DVD-RASNAG 7
MoDem 4
Radicals-UMP 3
Miscellaneous centrists (UC group) 2 (including the sole Villepiniste senator)
MRC (RDSE) 1
LGM (RDSE) 1

Preliminary guesswork of new groups:

PS-EELV-DVG 142
UMP-DVD-PRV 137
UC 25
CRC-PCR 21
RDSE 16 (of course, a few dvg will probably join the group and it could even be extended into a re-hash of the 1997 RCV group)
RASNAG 7

[Andrea]

PC says they had 16 seats up to election, they re-elected 14 and gaiend 1 (Morbihan).
One of the losses in in Seine St Denis. Where is the second one?

[Hash]

PC says they had 16 seats up to election, they re-elected 14 and gaiend 1 (Morbihan).
One of the losses in in Seine St Denis. Where is the second one?

Essonne

The PG also lost both their seats.

[Andrea]

PC says they had 16 seats up to election, they re-elected 14 and gaiend 1 (Morbihan).
One of the losses in in Seine St Denis. Where is the second one?

Essonne

The PG also lost both their seats.

Thanks

Larcher easily defeats Lise in Martinique: 59.1 to 40.9%

[Andrea]

Jacques Cornano (DVG) and Félix Pierre Desplan (PS)  takes the final 2 seats in Guadalupe.

I read that Verges (Commies, Reunion) is resigning his seat and that his suppléante can't vote in the Senate President election. Is it right? If so, why?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated tab with Martinique and Guadeloupe :

Départ.	Results	Left gain
Ind&L	3-0	+1
Isère	3-2	+1
Jura	0-2	NC
Landes	2-0	NC
L&Ch	1-1	+1
Loire	3-1	+1
Hte L	0-2	NC
L At	3-2	+1
Loiret	1-2	NC
Lot	2-0	NC
Lo&G	1-1	+1
Lozère	1-0	+1
M&L	2-2	+1
Manche	1-2	NC
Marne	0-3	NC
Hte Mar	0-2	NC
Mayenne	0-2	NC
M&M	2-2	NC
Meuse	0-2	NC
Morbihan	3-0	+2
Moselle	2-3	-1
Nièvre	2-0	NC
Nord	7-4	+1
Oise	2-2	+1
Orne	0-2	NC
PdC	5-2	+1
PdD	3-0	+1
Pyr-Atl	2-1	+1
Hts Pyr	2-0	NC
Pyr-Or	1-1	+1
Paris	8-4	+1
S&M	3-3	NC
Yvelines	2-4	+1
Essonne	3-2	NC
HdS	3-4	+1
SSD	4-2	NC
VdM	4-2	+1
VdO	3-2	NC
Guade	3-0	+2
Martin	2-0	NC
Réunion	2-2	+1
Mayotte	1-1	+1
Nv Cal	0-2	NC
SP&M	1-0	+1
Fr. Et.	2-4	+1
Total	95-75	+25
Seats not up	82-96	NC
Ov. Results	177-171	+25

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated maps with Outre-Mer and French Abroad :

Results :




Gains :

[big bad fab]

Even without (again) lowering the threshold for a group, which (stupid) Duflot is demanding, the Greens should be able to have a group with some DVG.

Larcher will of course lose, because even though some DVG may vote weirdly, even more DVD will betray the right.
Tomorrow, the socialist group pick its candidate.
On Saturday, this candidate will beat Larcher.
(as for me, on Saturday, probably more Sainte-Maure, Comté, but also some Ossau-Iraty and maybe a bit of Livarot )

Another good thing for Hollande probably:
- Jean-Pierre Bel is a "Hollandais", so I wait for the photo op (how funny it was yesterday to see both Aubry and Hollande hurry in the Senate lobbies...),
- during the Wednesday debate, it will be harder for Aubry to be on attack mode or she'll appear as someone who wants to tarnish the "feast".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't be such a jinx Lewis. I know the French left has blown a lot of opportunities in the past, but they certainly would achieve significant changes if the win in 2012.

There's a difference between having the technical ability to make major changes and actually making major changes. After the 1981 elections Mitterrand had one of the largest parliamentary majorities for any Left government in European history (might it actually have been the largest? Just under 68% of seats, so bigger than 1945 or 1997 in Britain. And most other countries have some form of PR) and while there were certainly many welcome and long-overdue reforms...

Well, Mitterrand didn't reform the constitution because he was a power-hungry opportunist who was fine with the presidential domination as long as he had it. That said, his first years of power saw massive and quite radical reforms in a lot of domains which still have a lot of impact today (despite the right's continuous attempts to bring some of them down). If the PS reforms as much as Mitterrand did in 1981-83, it should be ridiculous not to be satisfied.
Also, if we have a chance to have a policy-oriented candidate (coughAubrycough) rather than a personalist one (coughHollandecough), there's a fair chance that this time we can significantly reform our outdated institutions.

[big bad fab]

Don't be such a jinx Lewis. I know the French left has blown a lot of opportunities in the past, but they certainly would achieve significant changes if the win in 2012.

There's a difference between having the technical ability to make major changes and actually making major changes. After the 1981 elections Mitterrand had one of the largest parliamentary majorities for any Left government in European history (might it actually have been the largest? Just under 68% of seats, so bigger than 1945 or 1997 in Britain. And most other countries have some form of PR) and while there were certainly many welcome and long-overdue reforms...

Well, Mitterrand didn't reform the constitution because he was a power-hungry opportunist who was fine with the presidential domination as long as he had it. That said, his first years of power saw massive and quite radical reforms in a lot of domains which still have a lot of impact today (despite the right's continuous attempts to bring some of them down). If the PS reforms as much as Mitterrand did in 1981-83, it should be ridiculous not to be satisfied.
Also, if we have a chance to have a policy-oriented candidate (coughAubrycough) rather than a personalist one (coughHollandecough), there's a fair chance that this time we can significantly reform our outdated institutions.

While I disagree with what these reforms were (for many of them) , I must agree with Antonio: Mitterrand really reformed many things: Auroux laws on work regulation, big decentralization laws, organization of home transport system, regulation of housing, etc. (beside the obvious death penalty reform).

I think Al is maybe messing 1981-83 with 1984-86 (or 1990-1993), when the PS was paralyzed due to huge unpopularity and Mitterrand trying to prepare his reelection (or obsessively trying to kill Rocard's chances ).

[big bad fab]

Tasca has dropped her candidacy this morning.

Jean-Pierre Bel is the only candidate on the left.
He'll be the next President of the Senate on Saturday.
And a potential President of France if Sarkozy dies of a heart attack during his rare sessions of running of cycle-riding, is made hostage by AQMI or is declared insane by Doktor Jean-François Kahn

[Antonio the Sixth]

And a potential President of France if Sarkozy dies of a heart attack during his rare sessions of running of cycle-riding, is made hostage by AQMI or is declared insane by Doktor Jean-François Kahn

"Si le prochain président du Sénat est socialiste, Nicolas Sarkozy aura donc l'impression qu'il lui tâtera le pouls chaque fois qu'il lui serrera la main." said Le Figaro.

Of course being Acting President is utterly useless.

[Hash]

Tragic. We're losing another Chris Christie look-alike. Now we need to hope the MP for Ottawa-Vanier stays in office for a long time.

[MaxQue]

Christian Estrosi, former minister and currently député and mayor of Nice, UMP said than the right is losing local elections because Sarkozy is focused on keeping the France AAA credit note.

He is dumb on purpose or he is always like that?

[big bad fab]

Since yesterday, I've seen articles on Chevènement as a possible candidate for the Senate presidency, eventually supported by the right...
So, my idea wasn't just a funny creation of my mind
But Chevènement himself has killed any speculation today: he'll support the socialist candidate.

The RDSE group may well die (and we all be sad ): most of right radicals seem to rally the Union centriste group, in which tensions are high between NC senators and AC ones (probably with MoDem pushing the latter against the former).
Zocchetoo is still the UC group's president, for the moment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The RDSE group may well die (and we all be sad ): most of right radicals seem to rally the Union centriste group, in which tensions are high between NC senators and AC ones (probably with MoDem pushing the latter against the former).

Wow, another secular tradition is about to end...

Where would the radicals side in this case ? In the socialist group like in the Assemblée ? Or will they form a RCV-like group with EELV ?