2011 French Senate Election

[Andrea]

II round in Lot et Garonne

Camani PS 492 ELECTED
Tandonnet (NC) 493 ELECTED
Merly PR 448
Gouzes PS 400


+ 1 for the Left

Morbihan

PC 891 ELECTED
VEC 879 ELECTED
Le Nay UMP 803
Goulard UMP 793

PS takes all 3 in Puy-de-Dôme.

Calvet defets Alduy for the UMP seat in Pyrénées orientales. Easily: by around 140 votes.


What's the situation nationally now? How many gains do the Left need in the remaining seats?
We still have Menche to wait to see if the PS incumbent survives or not

[MaxQue]

In Lozère, Bertrand beats Blanc 173-169.
So, PS gain Lozère.

And the left finally win the three seats in Morbihan, out of nowhere, literraly nobody predicted that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So now, we have the results for all the PR départements. 2nd round in FPP ones is now coming.

[big bad fab]

Alduy is already bad news for the right. Morbihan too.

Don't judge on Réunion or SP&M... I have a bad feeling for the right.
Probably th effect of the reform of taxe professionnelle and the decrease in State financial aids.

OK, another big defeat for the right.

Territorial reform, taxe professionnelle, decrease in State financial support, Chiraquian and Balladurian affairs, general mood, huge divisions inside the right...

So many reasons...

Jean-Pierre Bel made a speech of victory.
Looking at Tasca seems to mean that Bel has the advantage.
Too bad there is an absolute majority for the left: some tie Senate would have been fun .

[MaxQue]

Godefroy (PS, Manche) somehow managed to be reelected because a DVD candidate decided to run in second round.

He wins by 12 votes on Valentin, a UMP candidate.

[Andrea]

Jean-Pierre Godefroy survives in Menche. 12 votes ahead of  third UMP candidate. I ruled him out too early this morning as some of you made me notice.

Just Pyrénées-Atlantiques and Haute Marne to come other than Martinique (first round announced) and Guadalupe.

Antiste won on first round in Martinique. Antiste 425 Larcher 386 Lise 313 Occolier 265

[MaxQue]

In Pyrénées-Atlnatique, results are PS 2, Modem 1.
PS incumbent is defeated.

In Haute-Marne, Sido-UMP beats Maillot-PS 52-48.
Haute-Marne shouldn't be that close.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Time for a recapitulative tab !

Départ.	Results	Left gain
Ind&L	3-0	+1
Isère	3-2	+1
Jura	0-2	NC
Landes	2-0	NC
L&Ch	1-1	+1
Loire	3-1	+1
Hte L	0-2	NC
L At	3-2	+1
Loiret	1-2	NC
Lot	2-0	NC
Lo&G	1-1	+1
Lozère	1-0	+1
M&L	2-2	+1
Manche	1-2	NC
Marne	0-3	NC
Hte Mar	0-2	NC
Mayenne	0-2	NC
M&M	2-2	NC
Meuse	0-2	NC
Morbihan	3-0	+2
Moselle	2-3	-1
Nièvre	2-0	NC
Nord	7-4	+1
Oise	2-2	+1
Orne	0-2	NC
PdC	5-2	+1
PdD	3-0	+1
Pyr-Atl	2-1	+1
Hts Pyr	2-0	NC
Pyr-Or	1-1	+1
Paris	8-4	+1
S&M	3-3	NC
Yvelines	2-4	+1
Essonne	3-2	NC
HdS	3-4	+1
SSD	4-2	NC
VdM	4-2	+1
VdO	3-2	NC
Guade	N/A
Martin	N/A
Réunion	2-2	+1
Mayotte	1-1	+1
Nv Cal	0-2	NC
SP&M	1-0	+1
Fr. Et.	2-4	+1
Total	90-75	+20

[Antonio the Sixth]

The actual gain for the left is 23 (ie exactly the number they need to win a majority), but I'm waiting for the numbers in Guadeloupe and Martinique. The left currently holds 3 seats, and is unlikely to lose any. If Hash is right, they'll gain one or two.

As far as I know, it's over. The left has won, and by winning they made history. 135 years of conservative dominance end today.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Left is new Right in France. Traditionally Left won all important elections and Right won all non-important. Nowadays its opposite.

While not absolutely essential, the control of Senate is something important. It will radically change the balance of power whatever are the 2012 results : if the right wins, their ability to pass bills will be reduced (though they should still be able to pass stuff), especially on institutional issues. And if the left win, they'll have for the first time a total control over institutions, with an unseen ability to reform.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, left already has 2 seats, one in each of Guadeloupe and Martinique (1st round results up). One more and it's official.

[minionofmidas]

The Left is new Right in France. Traditionally Left won all important elections and Right won all non-important. Nowadays its opposite.

While not absolutely essential, the control of Senate is something important. It will radically change the balance of power whatever are the 2012 results : if the right wins, their ability to pass bills will be reduced (though they should still be able to pass stuff), especially on institutional issues. And if the left win, they'll have for the first time a total control over institutions, with an unseen ability to reform.

Yes, I too believe that we will not see anything of that ability to reform.

[minionofmidas]

BTW, left already has 2 seats, one in each of Guadeloupe and Martinique (1st round results up). One more and it's official.

And since all four serious vote getters (including one already elected, for two seats) in Martinique are leftwingers...

[Insula Dei]

Great evening for the European Left, then!

 Let's hope Aubry or Hollande can get us the main fish next year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Left is new Right in France. Traditionally Left won all important elections and Right won all non-important. Nowadays its opposite.

While not absolutely essential, the control of Senate is something important. It will radically change the balance of power whatever are the 2012 results : if the right wins, their ability to pass bills will be reduced (though they should still be able to pass stuff), especially on institutional issues. And if the left win, they'll have for the first time a total control over institutions, with an unseen ability to reform.

Yes, I too believe that we will not see anything of that ability to reform.

Don't be such a jinx Lewis. I know the French left has blown a lot of opportunities in the past, but they certainly would achieve significant changes if the win in 2012.

[big bad fab]

The Left is new Right in France. Traditionally Left won all important elections and Right won all non-important. Nowadays its opposite.

While not absolutely essential, the control of Senate is something important. It will radically change the balance of power whatever are the 2012 results : if the right wins, their ability to pass bills will be reduced (though they should still be able to pass stuff), especially on institutional issues. And if the left win, they'll have for the first time a total control over institutions, with an unseen ability to reform.

Yes, I too believe that we will not see anything of that ability to reform.

Don't be such a jinx Lewis. I know the French left has blown a lot of opportunities in the past, but they certainly would achieve significant changes if the win in 2012.

When it was the right, it was a !!!OMGZ!!! "dictatorship" !!!OMGZ!!!

But even the right hadn't such a control of local institutions, since decentralization wasn't there.
So, it will be a really unprecedented power.
I'll seek asylum in Alsace, in Haute-Savoie or in Cantal .

[MaxQue]

I'm still shocked by results in Lozère, Loiret, Manche and especially Morbihan.

[big bad fab]

Tasca was a bit "grey" tonight.

Rebsamen was very clear on the fact that they (I mean the Hollandais, who are a majority in the socialist group in the Senate) want Bel to be president.

I think it's over for Tasca or any other candidate.

Let's see though if the Greens will have a nuisance power...
I really can't understand why socialists are so kind towards the Greens: why giving them so many seats ? Because of European elections results ? Come on...
That's really stupid.
When Joly is at 4.9%, maybe the PS will eventually back to Realpolitik and drop them in the legislative elections: better to have Communists, Left Radicals and even rallied MoDem (who will crave for some posts in the new regime) than to have rebellious Greens...

[minionofmidas]

The Left is new Right in France. Traditionally Left won all important elections and Right won all non-important. Nowadays its opposite.

While not absolutely essential, the control of Senate is something important. It will radically change the balance of power whatever are the 2012 results : if the right wins, their ability to pass bills will be reduced (though they should still be able to pass stuff), especially on institutional issues. And if the left win, they'll have for the first time a total control over institutions, with an unseen ability to reform.

Yes, I too believe that we will not see anything of that ability to reform.

Don't be such a jinx Lewis. I know the French left has blown a lot of opportunities in the past, but they certainly would achieve significant changes if the win in 2012.

When it was the right, it was a !!!OMGZ!!! "dictatorship" !!!OMGZ!!!

But even the right hadn't such a control of local institutions, since decentralization wasn't there.
So, it will be a really unprecedented power.
I'll seek asylum in Alsace, in Haute-Savoie or in Cantal .

I suggest the Cantal. It's very beautiful. Alsace is nice too I suppose.

[big bad fab]

I'm still shocked by results in Lozère, Loiret, Manche and especially Morbihan.

You mean Indre-et-Loire ? or Loire ? or Loir-et-Cher ?

Morbihan is a perfect example of the French right, which was once called "the stupidest right in the world", for its ability to kill herself by divisions.
And its inability to push new faces...

But Paris, Seine-et-Marne (brilliant Jégo !!!) and Hauts-de-Seine are "great" examples too...

In Loir-et-Cher, the MoDem has clearly killed Leroy...

In Manche, Valentin was a real bad candidate: a nasty guy, prone to shenanigans and proud of himself.

[Insula Dei]

The Left is new Right in France. Traditionally Left won all important elections and Right won all non-important. Nowadays its opposite.

While not absolutely essential, the control of Senate is something important. It will radically change the balance of power whatever are the 2012 results : if the right wins, their ability to pass bills will be reduced (though they should still be able to pass stuff), especially on institutional issues. And if the left win, they'll have for the first time a total control over institutions, with an unseen ability to reform.

Yes, I too believe that we will not see anything of that ability to reform.

Don't be such a jinx Lewis. I know the French left has blown a lot of opportunities in the past, but they certainly would achieve significant changes if the win in 2012.

When it was the right, it was a !!!OMGZ!!! "dictatorship" !!!OMGZ!!!

But even the right hadn't such a control of local institutions, since decentralization wasn't there.
So, it will be a really unprecedented power.
I'll seek asylum in Alsace, in Haute-Savoie or in Cantal .

I suggest the Cantal. It's very beautiful. Alsace is nice too I suppose.

Don't forget about the excellent cheese!

[minionofmidas]

I'm not suggesting that to Fab... he might eat it all and leave none for us.

[MaxQue]

I'm still shocked by results in Lozère, Loiret, Manche and especially Morbihan.

You mean Indre-et-Loire ? or Loire ? or Loir-et-Cher ?

Morbihan is a perfect example of the French right, which was once called "the stupidest right in the world", for its ability to kill herself by divisions.
And its inability to push new faces...

But Paris, Seine-et-Marne (brilliant Jégo !!!) and Hauts-de-Seine are "great" examples too...

In Loir-et-Cher, the MoDem has clearly killed Leroy...

In Manche, Valentin was a real bad candidate: a nasty guy, prone to shenanigans and proud of himself.

Loiret. I didn't thought than Sueur could save his seat so easily. Loir-et-Cher is not surprising, Leroy was campaigning in a way which let people see than he was worried. Indre-et-Loire isn't surprising, I suspected a good night for left would lead to 3-0. The margin is impressing the Loire, but 3-1 isn't so much given than the right had dreadful results there in 2008.

There was no divisions in Morbihan.

[big bad fab]

I'm not suggesting that to Fab... he might eat it all and leave none for us.

You're so right

Today, for lunch, no Cantal though, but a very fine Sainte-Maure-de-Touraine (yeah, shocking results in Indre-et-Loire ), a marvelous Cabri de Touraine (Indre-et-Loire again !) and a sweety Comté (better results in Jura ).
And another big, big, big Sauternes (white Bordeaux: a 1999 Lafaurie-Peyraguey).

See, bad senatorial elections, good lunch: life is good

[big bad fab]

I'm still shocked by results in Lozère, Loiret, Manche and especially Morbihan.

You mean Indre-et-Loire ? or Loire ? or Loir-et-Cher ?

Morbihan is a perfect example of the French right, which was once called "the stupidest right in the world", for its ability to kill herself by divisions.
And its inability to push new faces...

But Paris, Seine-et-Marne (brilliant Jégo !!!) and Hauts-de-Seine are "great" examples too...

In Loir-et-Cher, the MoDem has clearly killed Leroy...

In Manche, Valentin was a real bad candidate: a nasty guy, prone to shenanigans and proud of himself.

Loiret. I didn't thought than Sueur could save his seat so easily. Loir-et-Cher is not surprising, Leroy was campaigning in a way which let people see than he was worried. Indre-et-Loire isn't surprising, I suspected a good night for left would lead to 3-0. The margin is impressing the Loire, but 3-1 isn't so much given than the right had dreadful results there in 2008.

There was no divisions in Morbihan.

No OPEN divisions, sure
Believe me, the right in Morbihan is full of infightings, with a former hysteric Villepinist (Goulard), a stupid young hopeful (Guéant's son), old barons with weird habits (Rohan), too kind moderates (Kerguéris), many disappointed rural mayors, etc.
A real mess, with no real hope for the future.
A right from the Prehistoric Ages