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March 29, 2024, 07:34:44 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2024 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Who wins in 2024?
#1
Democrat
 
#2
Republican
 
#3
269-269
 
#4
I have no idea
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 15

Author Topic: 2024  (Read 3685 times)
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,117
Uruguay


« on: September 06, 2011, 09:49:05 PM »


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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,117
Uruguay


« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2011, 07:10:07 PM »

The point of the map was to show how the Democrats need to focus on swing states like Florida, Nevada, and Arizona which have gained electoral votes, instead of states that lost electoral votes in the last census, namely Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. It isn't so much to suggest a possible result, but to show where the new swings states are going to be going forward. If you go to the calculator for years over the last 50 years you will see that the states in the map only reached 270 in 2000, you will see a gradual increase in the totals for the map which finally leveled off in 2010. Will the numbers continue to go up? That is the question.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,117
Uruguay


« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2011, 07:23:03 PM »

Obama won all the states that Lincoln won in 1860 and a few more. This shows how the map has completed flipped in the old "Union" states. If Obama can hold onto three Lincoln states Ohio, NH, and Iowa he will get 270 electoral votes. This is a scenario which is quite different from the map I posted. The problem with the Ohio, NH, Iowa combination is that after 2020 Ohio is likely to lose electoral votes and the candidate in 2024 would have to win at least one of the Rocky mountain states or a southern state.
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